Estimating generalized propensity scores with survey and attrition weighted data.

Prior work in causal inference has shown that using survey sampling weights in the propensity score estimation stage and the outcome model stage for binary treatments can result in a more robust estimator of the effect of the binary treatment being analyzed. However, to date, extending this work to continuous treatments and exposures has not been explored nor has consideration been given for how to handle attrition weights in the propensity score model. Nonetheless, generalized propensity score (GPS) analyses are being used for estimating continuous treatment effects on outcomes when researchers have observational data, and those data sets often have survey or attrition weights that need to be accounted for in the analysis. Here, we extend prior work and show with analytic results that using survey sampling or attrition weights in the GPS estimation stage and the outcome model stage for continuous treatments can result in a more robust estimator than one that does not. Simulation study results show that, although using weights in both estimation stages is sufficient for robust estimation, it is not necessary and unbiased estimation is possible in some cases under various approaches to using weights in estimation. Analysts do not know if the conditions of our simulation studies hold, so use of weights in both estimation stages might provide insurance for reducing potential bias. We discuss the implications of our results in the context of an empirical example.

A Causal Approach to Functional Mediation Analysis with Application to a Smoking Cessation Intervention.

The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal symptoms. We define and identify the causal direct and indirect effects in terms of potential outcomes on the mean difference and odds ratio scales, and present a method for estimating and testing the indirect effect of a randomized treatment on a distal binary variable as mediated by the nonparametric trajectory of an intensively measured longitudinal variable (e.g., from ecological momentary assessment). Coverage of a bootstrap test for the indirect effect is demonstrated via simulation. An empirical example is presented based on estimating later smoking abstinence from patterns of craving during smoking cessation treatment. We provide an R package, funmediation, available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/funmediation/index.html, to conveniently apply this technique. We conclude by discussing possible extensions to multiple mediators and directions for future research.

Time-Varying Mediation of Pharmacological Smoking Cessation Treatments on Smoking Lapse via Craving, Cessation Fatigue, and Negative Mood.

INTRODUCTION: The addictive nature of nicotine makes smoking cessation an extremely challenging process. With prolonged exposure, tobacco smoking transforms from being a positive reinforcer to a negative one, as smoking is used to mitigate aversive withdrawal symptoms. Studying the variations in withdrawal symptoms, especially during their peak in the first week of a quit attempt, could help improve cessation treatment for the future. The time-varying mediation model effectively studies whether altering withdrawal symptoms act as mediators in the pathway between treatment and cessation. AIMS AND METHODS: This secondary data analysis of a randomized clinical smoking cessation trial of three pharmacotherapy regimens (nicotine patch, varenicline, and nicotine patch + mini-lozenge) analyzes ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data from the first 4 weeks post-target quit day (TQD). We assess whether withdrawal symptoms (eg, negative mood, cessation fatigue, and craving) mediate the pathway between pharmacotherapy and daily smoking status and whether this effect varies over time. RESULTS: We found a statistically significant time-varying mediation effect of varenicline on smoking status through craving, which shows decreasing risk of lapse via reduction in craving. We did not find significant time-varying mediation effects through negative mood and cessation fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the importance of craving suppression in the smoking cessation process. It also helped identify specific timepoints when withdrawal symptoms increased that would likely benefit from targeted cessation intervention strategies. IMPLICATIONS: This study aimed to understand the underlying dynamic mechanisms of the smoking cessation process using a new analytical approach that capitalizes on the intensive longitudinal data collected via EMAs. The findings from this study further elucidate the smoking cessation process and provide insight into behavioral intervention targets and the timing of such interventions through the estimation of time-varying mediation effects.