Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming.

Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.

A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming.

Recently, multiple studies have reported declining phenological sensitivities (∆ days per ℃) with higher temperatures. Such observations have been used to suggest climate change is reshaping biological processes, with major implications for forecasts of future change. Here, we show that these results may simply be the outcome of using linear models to estimate nonlinear temperature responses, specifically for events that occur after a cumulative thermal threshold is met-a common model for many biological events. Corrections for the nonlinearity of temperature responses consistently remove the apparent decline. Our results show that rising temperatures combined with linear estimates based on calendar time produce the observations of declining sensitivity-without any shift in the underlying biology. Current methods may thus undermine efforts to identify when and how warming will reshape biological processes.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

First Report of Raspberry bushy dwarf virus in Rubus multibracteatus from China.

Raspberry bushy dwarf virus (RBDV), genus Idaeovirus, has been reported in commercial Rubus spp. from North and South America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Infection can cause reduced vigor and drupelet abortion leading to crumbly fruit and reduced yields (3,4). In recent years, Rubus germplasm in the form of seed, was obtained on several collection trips to The People's Republic of China to increase the diversity of Rubus spp. in the USDA-ARS National Clonal Germplasm Repository, (Corvallis, OR). Before planting in the field, seedlings were tested for the presence of RBDV, Tomato ringspot virus, and Tobacco streak virus using triple-antibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (TAS-ELISA) (antiserum produced by R. R. Martin). One symptomless plant of R. multibracteatus H. Lev. & Vaniot (PI 618457 in USDA-ARS GRIN database), from Guizhou province in China, tested positive for RBDV (RBDV-China). After mechanical transmission on Chenopodium quinoa Willd., this isolate produced typical symptoms of RBDV (3). To determine if RBDV-China was a contaminant during the handling of the plants, or if the source was a seedborne virus, the coat protein gene was sequenced and compared to published sequences of RBDV. RNA was extracted from leaves of R. multibracteatus and subjected to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers that flank the coat protein gene. Products from four separate PCR reactions were sequenced directly or were cloned into the plasmid vector pCR 2.1 (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA) and then sequenced. The coding sequence of the coat protein gene of RBDV-China was 87.5% (722/825) identical to that isolated from black raspberry (Genbank Accession No. s55890). The predicted amino acid sequences were 91.6% (251/274) identical. Previously, a maximum of five amino acid differences had been observed in the coat proteins of different RBDV strains (1). The 23 differences observed between RBDV-China and the isolate from black raspberry (s55890) confirm that the RBDV in R. multibracteatus is not a greenhouse contaminant but is indeed a unique strain of RBDV. In addition, monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) to RBDV (2) were tested against RBDV-China. In these tests, MAb D1 did not detect RBDV-China, whereas MAb R2 and R5 were able to detect the strain. This is the first strain of RBDV that has been clearly differentiated by MAbs using standard TAS-ELISA tests. Although RBDV is common in commercial Rubus spp. worldwide, to our knowledge, this is the first report of RBDV in R. multibracteatus, and the first report of RBDV from China. The effects of this new strain of RBDV could be more or less severe, or have a different host range than previously studied strains. It is more divergent from the type isolate than any other strain that has been studied to date. Phylogenetic analysis of coat protein genes of RBDV may be useful in understanding the evolution and spread of this virus. References: (1) A. T. Jones et al. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 106:623, 2000. (2) R. R. Martin. Can. J. Plant. Pathol. 6:264, 1984. (3) A. F. Murant. Raspberry Bushy Dwarf. Page 229 in: Virus Diseases of Small Fruits. R. H. Converse, ed. U.S. Dep. Agric. Agric. Handb. 631, 1987. (4) B. Strik and R. R. Martin. Plant Dis. 87:294, 2003.