Capturing and applying knowledge to guide compound optimisation.

Successful drug discovery requires knowledge and experience across many disciplines, and no current 'artificial intelligence' (AI) method can replace expert scientists. However, computers can recall more information than any individual or team and facilitate the transfer of knowledge across disciplines. Here, we discuss how knowledge relating to chemistry and the biological and physicochemical properties required for a successful compound can be captured. Furthermore, we illustrate how, by combining and applying this knowledge computationally, a broader range of optimisation strategies can be rigorously explored, and the results presented in an intuitive way for consideration by the experts.

Avoiding Missed Opportunities by Analyzing the Sensitivity of Our Decisions.

Drug discovery is a multiparameter optimization process in which the goal of a project is to identify compounds that meet multiple property criteria required to achieve a therapeutic objective. However, once a profile of property criteria has been chosen, the impact of these criteria on the decisions made regarding progression of compounds or chemical series should be carefully considered. In some cases the decision is very sensitive to a specific property criterion, and such a criterion may artificially distort the direction of the project; any uncertainty in the "correct" value or the importance of this criterion may lead to valuable opportunities being missed. In this paper, we describe a method for analyzing the sensitivity of the prioritization of compounds to a multiparameter profile of property criteria. We show how the results can be easily interpreted and illustrate how this analysis can highlight new avenues for exploration.

The challenges of making decisions using uncertain data.

All of the experimental compound data with which we work have significant uncertainties, due to imperfect correlations between experimental systems and the ultimate in vivo properties of compounds and the inherent variability in experimental conditions. When using these data to make decisions, it is essential that these uncertainties are taken into account to avoid making inappropriate decisions in the selection of compounds, which can lead to wasted effort and missed opportunities. In this paper we will consider approaches to rigorously account for uncertainties when selecting between compounds or assessing compounds against a property criterion; first for an individual measurement of a single property and then for multiple measurements of a property for the same compound. We will then explore how uncertainties in multiple properties can be combined when assessing compounds against a profile of criteria, a process known as multi-parameter optimisation. This guides rigorous decision-making using complex, uncertain data to focus on compounds with the best chance of success, while avoiding missed opportunities by inappropriately rejecting compounds.

Alternative variables in drug discovery: promises and challenges.

A number of alternative variables have appeared in the medicinal chemistry literature trying to provide a more rigorous formulation of the guidelines proposed by Lipinski to exclude chemical entities with poor pharmacokinetic properties early in the discovery process. Typically, these variables combine the affinity towards the target with physicochemical properties of the ligand and are named efficiencies or ligand efficiencies. Several formulations have been defined and used by different laboratories with different degrees of success. A unified formulation, ligand efficiency indices, was proposed that included efficiency in two complementary variables (i.e., size and polarity) to map and monitor the drug-discovery process (AtlasCBS). The use of this formulation in combination with an extended multiparameter optimization is presented, with examples, as a promising methodology to optimize the drug-discovery process in the future. Future perspectives and challenges for this approach are also discussed.

Beyond profiling: using ADMET models to guide decisions.

ADMET Models, whether in silico or in vitro, are commonly used to 'profile' molecules, to identify potential liabilities or filter out molecules expected to have undesirable properties. While useful, this is the most basic application of such models. Here, we will show how models may be used to go 'beyond profiling' to guide key decisions in drug discovery. For example, selection of chemical series to focus resources with confidence or design of improved molecules targeting structural modifications to improve key properties. To prioritise molecules and chemical series, the success criteria for properties and their relative importance to a project's objective must be defined. Data from models (experimental or predicted) may then be used to assess each molecule's balance of properties against those requirements. However, to make decisions with confidence, the uncertainties in all of the data must also be considered. In silico models encode information regarding the relationship between molecular structure and properties. This is used to predict the property value of a novel molecule. However, further interpretation can yield information on the contributions of different groups in a molecule to the property and the sensitivity of the property to structural changes. Visualising this information can guide the redesign process. In this article, we describe methods to achieve these goals and drive drug-discovery decisions and illustrate the results with practical examples.

Automatic QSAR modeling of ADME properties: blood-brain barrier penetration and aqueous solubility.

In this article, we present an automatic model generation process for building QSAR models using Gaussian Processes, a powerful machine learning modeling method. We describe the stages of the process that ensure models are built and validated within a rigorous framework: descriptor calculation, splitting data into training, validation and test sets, descriptor filtering, application of modeling techniques and selection of the best model. We apply this automatic process to data sets of blood-brain barrier penetration and aqueous solubility and compare the resulting automatically generated models with 'manually' built models using external test sets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the automatic model generation process for two types of data sets commonly encountered in building ADME QSAR models, a small set of in vivo data and a large set of physico-chemical data.