Evaluation of postradiotherapy PSA patterns and correlation with 10-year disease free survival outcomes for prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To describe the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) pattern profiles observed after external beam radiotherapy with and without short-term neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ST-ADT) and to report the association of established posttreatment PSA patterns with long-term disease-free survival outcomes. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 1,665 patients were treated with conformal external beam radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Of 570 patients who had the requisite>10 consecutive PSA measurements for statistical analysis, 194 patients received a median of 3 months of ADT before radiotherapy and 376 were treated with radiotherapy alone. The median follow up was 103 months. RESULTS: In the group treated with ST-ADT, three distinct postradiotherapy PSA patterns were identified: a stable trend (44%), an increasing trend followed by stabilization of the PSA (25%), and an increasing trend (31%). Among the subgroup that demonstrated a rising and subsequent stabilizing patterns, PSA levels had gradually risen to a median value of 0.9 ng/mL after therapy, stabilized, and remained durably suppressed. The only identified trends among patients treated with external beam radiotherapy without ST-ADT were declining PSA levels followed by stable PSA trends or declining patterns followed by rising levels. Patients whose PSA levels stabilized after an initial rise or those with slowly rising PSA profiles had a lower incidence of distant metastasis compared to those with accelerated rises after therapy. CONCLUSIONS: For those treated with external beam radiotherapy in conjunction with ST-ADT, a significant percentage who develop a rising PSA after treatment are expected to manifest subsequent stabilization at plateaued levels of approximately 1.0 ng/mL, which can remain durably suppressed. The likelihood of distant metastasis in these patients is low despite the PSA stabilization at levels 1.0 ng/mL or higher and comparable to outcomes observed for those with lower nonrising PSA values.

Outcome predictors for the increasing PSA state after definitive external-beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To identify predictors of distant metastases (DM) among patients who develop an isolated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse after definitive external-beam radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1,650 patients with clinical stage T1 to T3 prostate cancer were treated with high-dose three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy. Of these, 381 patients subsequently developed three consecutive increasing PSA values and were characterized as having a biochemical relapse. The median follow-up time was 92 months from the completion of radiotherapy. RESULTS: The 5-year incidence of DM after an established PSA relapse was 29%. In a multivariate analysis, PSA doubling time (PSA-DT; P < .001), the clinical T stage (P < .001), and Gleason score (P = .007) were independent variables predicting for DM after established biochemical failure. The PSA-DT for favorable-, intermediate-, and unfavorable-risk patients who developed a biochemical failure was 20.0, 13.2, and 8.2 months, respectively (P < .001). The 3-year incidence of DM for patients with PSA-DT of 0 to 3, 3 to 6, 6 to 12, and more than 12 months was 49%, 41%, 20%, and 7%, respectively (P < .001). Patients with PSA-DT of 0 to 3 and 3 to 6 months demonstrated a 7.0 and 6.6 increased hazard of developing DM or death, respectively, compared with patients with a DT more than 12 months. CONCLUSION: In addition to clinical stage and Gleason score, PSA-DT was a powerful predictor of DM among patients who develop an isolated PSA relapse after external-beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Patients who develop biochemical relapse with PSA-DT < or = 6 months should be considered for systemic therapy or experimental protocols because of the high propensity for rapid DM development.