Persistence of the efficacy of zoster vaccine in the shingles prevention study and the short-term persistence substudy.

BACKGROUND: The Shingles Prevention Study (SPS; Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study 403) demonstrated that zoster vaccine was efficacious through 4 years after vaccination. The Short-Term Persistence Substudy (STPS) was initiated after the SPS to further assess the persistence of vaccine efficacy. METHODS: The STPS re-enrolled 7320 vaccine and 6950 placebo recipients from the 38 546-subject SPS population. Methods of surveillance, case determination, and follow-up were analogous to those in the SPS. Vaccine efficacy for herpes zoster (HZ) burden of illness, incidence of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), and incidence of HZ were assessed for the STPS population, for the combined SPS and STPS populations, and for each year through year 7 after vaccination. RESULTS: In the STPS as compared to the SPS, vaccine efficacy for HZ burden of illness decreased from 61.1% to 50.1%, vaccine efficacy for the incidence of PHN decreased from 66.5% to 60.1%, and vaccine efficacy for the incidence of HZ decreased from 51.3% to 39.6%, although the differences were not statistically significant. Analysis of vaccine efficacy in each year after vaccination for all 3 outcomes showed a decrease in vaccine efficacy after year 1, with a further decline thereafter. Vaccine efficacy was statistically significant for the incidence of HZ and the HZ burden of illness through year 5. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine efficacy for each study outcome was lower in the STPS than in the SPS. There is evidence of the persistence of vaccine efficacy through year 5 after vaccination but, vaccine efficacy is uncertain beyond that point.

Varicella-zoster virus-specific immune responses in elderly recipients of a herpes zoster vaccine.

BACKGROUND: A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that involved 38,546 subjects > or =60 years old demonstrated efficacy of a high-potency live-attenuated Oka/Merck varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccine. The trial included an immunology substudy to determine the relationship of VZV-specific immune responses to vaccination and clinical outcome. METHODS: The immunology substudy enrolled 1395 subjects at 2 sites where blood samples obtained prior to vaccination, at 6 weeks after vaccination, and at 1, 2, and 3 years thereafter were tested for VZV-specific cell-mediated immunity (VZV-CMI) by gamma-interferon ELISPOT and responder cell frequency assays and for VZV antibody by glycoprotein ELISA. RESULTS: VZV-CMI and VZV antibodies were significantly increased in vaccine recipients at 6 weeks after vaccination. The vaccine-induced increases in VZV-CMI persisted during the 3 years of follow-up, although their magnitude decreased over time. The magnitude of these VZV-specific immune responses was greater in subjects 60-69 years old than in subjects > or =70 years old. CONCLUSIONS: The zoster vaccine induced a significant increase in VZV-CMI and VZV antibody. The magnitude and duration of the boost in VZV-CMI in vaccine recipients and the relationship of this boost to age paralleled the clinical effects of the vaccine observed during the efficacy trial. These findings support the hypothesis that boosting VZV-CMI protects older adults against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia.

Statistical considerations for noninferiority/equivalence trials in vaccine development.

Noninferioritylequivalence designs are often used in vaccine clinical trials. The goal of these designs is to demonstrate that a new vaccine, or new formulation or regimen of an existing vaccine, is similar in terms of effectiveness to the existing vaccine, while offering such advantages as easier manufacturing, easier administration, lower cost, or improved safety profile. These noninferioritylequivalence designs are particularly useful in four common types of immunogenicity trials: vaccine bridging trials, combination vaccine trials, vaccine concomitant use trials, and vaccine consistency lot trials. In this paper, we give an overview of the key statistical issues and recent developments for noninferioritylequivalence vaccine trials. Specifically, we cover the following topics: (i) selection of study endpoints; (ii) formulation of the null and alternative hypotheses; (iii) determination of the noninferioritylequivalence margin; (iv) selection of efficient statistical methods for the statistical analysis of noninferioritylequivalence vaccine trials, with particular emphasis on adjustment for stratification factors and missing pre-or post-vaccination data; and (v) the calculation of sample size and power.

A vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and severity of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia increase with age in association with a progressive decline in cell-mediated immunity to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). We tested the hypothesis that vaccination against VZV would decrease the incidence, severity, or both of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults. METHODS: We enrolled 38,546 adults 60 years of age or older in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of an investigational live attenuated Oka/Merck VZV vaccine ("zoster vaccine"). Herpes zoster was diagnosed according to clinical and laboratory criteria. The pain and discomfort associated with herpes zoster were measured repeatedly for six months. The primary end point was the burden of illness due to herpes zoster, a measure affected by the incidence, severity, and duration of the associated pain and discomfort. The secondary end point was the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia. RESULTS: More than 95 percent of the subjects continued in the study to its completion, with a median of 3.12 years of surveillance for herpes zoster. A total of 957 confirmed cases of herpes zoster (315 among vaccine recipients and 642 among placebo recipients) and 107 cases of postherpetic neuralgia (27 among vaccine recipients and 80 among placebo recipients) were included in the efficacy analysis. The use of the zoster vaccine reduced the burden of illness due to herpes zoster by 61.1 percent (P<0.001), reduced the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia by 66.5 percent (P<0.001), and reduced the incidence of herpes zoster by 51.3 percent (P<0.001). Reactions at the injection site were more frequent among vaccine recipients but were generally mild. CONCLUSIONS: The zoster vaccine markedly reduced morbidity from herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults.

Proving non-inferiority or equivalence of two treatments with dichotomous endpoints using exact methods.

Since the early work of RA Fisher, exact methods have been recognized as important tools in data analysis because they provide valid statistical inference even with small sample sizes, or with sparse or skewed data. With the recent advance of computational power and the availability of commercial software packages, exact methods have gained substantial popularity over the past two decades. However, most of these exact methods have been devoted to testing classical null hypotheses of no differences, and until recently little was known about exact methods dealing with non-inferiority or equivalence hypotheses. The presence of nuisance parameters in testing non-inferiority/equivalence hypotheses presents a special challenge for exact methods because of the intense computational requirement. In this paper, we review exact methods available for proving non-inferiority or equivalence of two treatments with a dichotomous endpoint. First, we present the general methodology for conducting exact tests for non-inferiority or equivalence; we then discuss several unconditional and conditional methods available for constructing hypothesis tests and confidence intervals based on three commonly used measures, namely, the difference, relative risk, and odds ratio of two independent proportions or rates. Finally, we illustrate with several examples the application of these exact methods in analysing and planning non-inferiority or equivalence trials.