Prediction of hospital mortality among critically ill patients in a single centre in Asia: comparison of artificial neural networks and logistic regression-based model.

INTRODUCTION: This study compared the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model with the Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and IV models for predicting hospital mortality among critically ill patients in Hong Kong. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included all patients admitted to the intensive care unit of Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital from January 2010 to December 2019. The ANN model was constructed using parameters identical to the APACHE IV model. Discrimination performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC); calibration performance was evaluated using the Brier score and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. RESULTS: In total, 14 503 patients were included, with 10% in the validation set and 90% in the ANN model development set. The ANN model (AUROC=0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.86-0.90, Brier score=0.10; P in Hosmer-Lemeshow test=0.37) outperformed the APACHE II model (AUROC=0.85, 95% CI=0.80-0.85, Brier score=0.14; P<0.001 for both comparisons of AUROCs and Brier scores) but showed performance similar to the APACHE IV model (AUROC=0.87, 95% CI=0.85-0.89, Brier score=0.11; P=0.34 for comparison of AUROCs, and P=0.05 for comparison of Brier scores). The ANN model demonstrated better calibration than the APACHE II and APACHE IV models. CONCLUSION: Our ANN model outperformed the APACHE II model but was similar to the APACHE IV model in terms of predicting hospital mortality in Hong Kong. Artificial neural networks are valuable tools that can enhance real-time prognostic prediction.

Ten-year territory-wide trends in the utilisation and clinical outcomes of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in Hong Kong.

INTRODUCTION: The utilisation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been rapidly increasing in Hong Kong. This study examined 10-year trends in the utilisation and clinical outcomes of ECMO in Hong Kong. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all adult patients receiving ECMO who were admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) of public hospitals in Hong Kong between 2010 and 2019. Temporal trends across years were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Observed hospital mortality was compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV-predicted mortality. RESULTS: The annual number of patients receiving ECMO increased from 18 to 171 over 10 years. In total, 911 patients received ECMO during the study period: 297 (32.6%) received veno-arterial ECMO, 450 (49.4%) received veno-venous ECMO, and 164 (18.0%) received extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation. The annual number of patients aged ≥65 years increased from 0 to 47 (27.5%) [P for trend=0.001]. The median (interquartile range) Charlson Comorbidity Index increased from 1 (0-1) to 2 (1-3) [P for trend<0.001] while the median (interquartile range) APACHE IV score increased from 90 (57-112) to 105 (77-137) [P for trend=0.003]. The overall standardised mortality ratio comparing hospital mortality with APACHE IV-predicted mortality was 1.11 (95% confidence interval=1.01-1.22). Hospital and ICU length of stay both significantly decreased (P for trend=0.011 and <0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: As ECMO utilisation increased in Hong Kong, patients put on ECMO were older, more critically ill, and had more co-morbidities. It is important to combine service expansion with adequate resource allocation and training to maintain quality of care.

A case of traumatic uterine avulsion in pregnancy.

Complete uterine avulsion is an extremely rare complication of trauma sustained during pregnancy. We present the case of a 21-year-old nullipara at 16 weeks' gestation who was involved in a high-speed motor vehicle collision with subsequent fetal demise. Initially she was hemodynamically stable and demonstrated small amounts of intraabdominal free fluid, therefore multidisciplinary conservative measures were undertaken. However, as her condition worsened, she was taken for exploratory laparotomy, revealing complete gravid uterine avulsion at the level of the cervicoisthmic junction. Due to hemodynamic instability and concerns for retroperitoneal bleeding, a supracervical hysterectomy was performed. Although a rare occurrence, our case demonstrates the need for a high level of suspicion for uterine avulsion in certain cases of trauma in pregnancy. This highlights the false reassurance provided by stable vitals in a pregnant patient that may mask ongoing bleeding and development of hemorrhagic shock, the importance of interpreting different imaging modalities together when the cause of instability is unclear, and the utility of a multidisciplinary approach. While our patient underwent hysterectomy due to hemodynamic instability, it is unknown whether earlier investigation with laparoscopy to confirm uterine integrity may have circumvented this and allowed for fertility-sparing management. As such, our case encourages the utilization of early diagnostic laparoscopy if there is concern for uterine avulsion for the consideration of alternative surgical interventions for management.

Occurrence and stability of PCMX in water environments and its removal by municipal wastewater treatment processes.

Para-chloro-meta-xylenol (PCMX) is a synthetic antiseptic used extensively to control the spread of germs and viruses, and as a result, enormous amount of PCMX could be discharged to water environments through drainage. To investigate the extent of PCMX contamination, water samples were collected from rivers and coastal waters in Hong Kong, and PCMX concentrations were determined by a newly developed method using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry combined with stable isotope-dilution. We discovered widespread PCMX pollution in the water environment. Then, we revealed for the first time that PCMX in wastewater is not effectively removed by chemically enhanced primary treatment (CEPT), one of the wastewater treatment processes used in Hong Kong (∼75% of wastewater) and other megacities around the world. This suggests that the CEPT effluent or the primary treatment effluent is an unintended continuous source of pollution for PCMX in water environments. Finally, we found that PCMX was relatively stable in the water environment and could pose a risk to aquatic organisms. These findings underscore the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental consequences from overuse of PCMX-based disinfectants and the need to reevaluate the various wastewater treatment processes in removing PCMX.

Comparative Effectiveness of FOLFIRINOX Versus Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Initially Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-based Study to Assess Subsequent Surgical Resection and Overall Survival.

AIMS: First-line FOLFIRINOX (FOLinic acid, Fluorouracil, IRINotecan, and OXaliplatin) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GnP) have been publicly funded for patients with unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (uLAPC) in Ontario, Canada. We examined the overall survival and surgical resection rate after first-line FOLFIRINOX or GnP and determined the association between resection and overall survival in patients with uLAPC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based study including patients with uLAPC who received first-line treatment FOLFIRINOX or GnP from April 2015 to March 2019. The cohort was linked to administrative databases to ascertain demographic and clinical characteristics. Propensity score methods were used to balance differences between FOLFIRINOX and GnP. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate overall survival. Cox regression was used to determine the association between receipt of treatment and overall survival, adjusting for time-dependent surgical resections. RESULTS: We identified 723 patients with uLAPC (mean age = 65.8, 43.5% female) who received FOLFIRINOX (55.2%) or GnP (44.8%). The median overall survival and 1-year overall survival probability were higher for FOLFIRINOX (13.7 months, 54.6%) than for GnP (8.7 months, 34.0%). Post-chemotherapy surgical resection occurred in 89 (12.3%) patients (FOLFIRINOX: 74 [18.5%] versus GnP: 15 [4.6%]), with no difference in survival since surgery between FOLFIRINOX and GnP (P = 0.29). After adjusting time-dependent post-treatment surgical resection, FOLFIRINOX (inverse probability treatment weighting hazard ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.84) was independently associated with improved overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world population-based study of patients with uLAPC, FOLFIRINOX was associated with improved survival and higher resection rates. FOLFIRINOX was associated with improved survival in patients with uLAPC after accounting for the effect of post-chemotherapy surgical resection, suggesting the benefit of FOLFIRINOX was not solely due to improving resectability.

Outcomes Following Treatment with FOLFOX for Patients with Resectable or Potentially Resectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Population-based Cohort Study.

AIMS: To evaluate the safety and effectiveness of oxaliplatin-based combination chemotherapy for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) to extrahepatic sites. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective study examining the safety and effectiveness of perioperative oxaliplatin for resectable or potentially resectable colorectal metastases in Ontario, Canada. Outcomes were also compared with patients with liver-only metastases. Patients received oxaliplatin for mCRC between 1 January 2013 and 30 June 2020. RESULTS: In total, 192 patients had extrahepatic metastases. Seventy per cent had R0 metastasectomy. The 3-year disease-free survival and overall survival were 62% and 79%, respectively; <4% of patients died within 60 days of metastasectomy and 74-90% of patients received treatment according to recommendations from a multidisciplinary setting. Compared with liver-only controls (n = 1306), patients had mCRC to the lung only (n = 115), lung and liver (n = 55) and liver with non-pulmonary site (n = 22). Extrahepatic metastases were more likely to be found for patients whose primary colorectal resection had positive margins (14% versus 7%, P = 0.005) and primary tumours located in the rectum [odds ratio 4.01 (2.31-6.97)]. After adjustment, there was no difference in overall survival between liver-only controls and patients with lung-only [hazard ratio 0.82 (0.59-1.15)] or liver and lung metastases [hazard ratio 1.26 (0.85-1.87)] (P = 0.24). In total, 79/115 (69%) of patients with lung-only metastases had a metastasectomy compared with 645/1306 (49%) and 15/55 (27%) of patients with liver-only and liver and lung metastases, respectively. Hospital visits were similar between patients with liver-only and extrahepatic metastases. CONCLUSION: Oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for patients with resectable or potentially resectable mCRC with extrahepatic metastases was safe and resulted in similar outcomes in appropriately selected patients when compared with patients with liver-only metastases.

Docetaxel, Cisplatin, and 5-FU Triplet Therapy as Conversion Therapy for Locoregionally Advanced Unresectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The standard treatment for locoregionally advanced unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was radical chemoradiotherapy. However, the prognosis was modest. Emerging evidence showed the concept of induction chemotherapy with a goal of conversion surgery. METHODS: We reviewed the long-term, clinical outcomes and safety data of induction chemotherapy using docetaxel-cisplatin-5FU (DCF) and subsequent definitive treatment, either surgery or radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT), in locally advanced unresectable esophageal cancer in Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. A total of 47 patients (median age 62 years, male: 41 (87.2%)) with locoregionally advanced unresectable esophageal cancer received induction DCF. The response rate was 65.9% (complete/partial response: n = 31). After induction DCF, 24 patients (41.4%) had radical surgery and 7 (14.9%) had definitive CRT. RESULTS: The median overall survival (mOS) was significantly longer in patients received subsequent surgery compared with those with definitive CRT (mOS: 40.2 vs. 9.1 months, hazard ratio 3.33, 95% confidence interval 1.22-9.07, p = 0.02) and no definitive treatment (mOS: 40.2 vs. 6.3 months, hazard ratio 8.51, 95% confidence interval 3.7-19.73, p < 0.001). Patients who received surgery, female, and those with supraclavicular lymph node involvement had a better OS. Twenty-one patients (44.7%) developed grade 3/4 adverse events during induction DCF, and two died after chemotherapy because of trachea-esophageal fistula complicated with sepsis. Eleven patients who had surgery had postoperative complications and none had postoperative mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Induction DCF and subsequent conversion surgery offered a chance of cure with long-term survival benefit and manageable toxicities in patients with locoregionally advanced unresectable esophageal cancer.

Update on the Recommendations on Breast Cancer Screening by the Cancer Expert Working Group on Cancer Prevention and Screening.

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women in Hong Kong. The Food and Health Bureau commissioned The University of Hong Kong (HKU) to conduct the Hong Kong Breast Cancer Study (HKBCS) with the aim of identifying relevant risk factors for BC in Hong Kong and developing a locally validated BC risk assessment tool for Hong Kong Chinese women. After consideration of the most recent international and local scientific evidence including findings of the HKBCS, the Cancer Expert Working Group on Cancer Prevention and Screening (CEWG) has reviewed and updated its BC screening recommendations. Existing recommendations were preserved for women at high risk and slightly changed for women at moderate risk. The following major updates have been made concerning recommendations for other women in the general population: Women aged 44 to 69 with certain combinations of personalised risk factors (including presence of history of BC among first-degree relative, a prior diagnosis of benign breast disease, nulliparity and late age of first live birth, early age of menarche, high body mass index and physical inactivity) putting them at increased risk of BC are recommended to consider mammography screening every 2 years. They should discuss with their doctors on the potential benefits and harms before undergoing mammography screening. A risk assessment tool for local women (eg, one developed by HKU) is recommended to be used for estimating the risk of developing BC with regard to the personalised risk factors described above.

Real-world Safety of Bevacizumab with First-line Combination Chemotherapy in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Population-based Retrospective Cohort Studies in Three Canadian Provinces.

AIMS: To examine the real-world safety of adding bevacizumab to first-line irinotecan-based chemotherapy for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with CRC in three Canadian provinces (Ontario, Saskatchewan and British Columbia) who received publicly funded bevacizumab and/or irinotecan from 2000 to 2016 were identified from cancer registries. Propensity score 1:1 matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were performed to contemporaneous and historical controls, adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Safety end points evaluated during first-line treatment plus 30 days included mortality within 30 days and all-cause-, chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related hospitalisations. Chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related visits were defined as hospitalisations for specific conditions commonly associated with chemotherapy (e.g. infections) or bevacizumab (e.g. arteriovenous thromboembolism) using most responsible diagnosis codes. In PSM and IPTW-weighted cohorts, we assessed event frequencies using odds ratios from logistic regressions and event rate ratios using negative binomial regression models. The results from each province and comparison were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 16 250 mCRC patients who received first-line irinotecan-based treatment. In PSM cohorts, bevacizumab was associated with fewer deaths within 30 days of treatment compared with contemporaneous (pooled odds ratio = 0.62; 95% confidence interval 0.50-0.75) and historical controls (pooled odds ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.93). Hospitalisations were more frequent among patients treated with bevacizumab compared with historical controls but similar to contemporaneous controls. As patients receiving bevacizumab were exposed to a longer average treatment duration, across their full treatment duration, patients receiving bevacizumab had significantly lower rates of hospitalisations (contemporaneous pooled rate ratio = 0.56; 95% confidence interval 0.47-0.67; historical pooled rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.95). Similar trends were observed for chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related hospitalisations and in IPTW-weighted cohorts. DISCUSSION: We did not observe any increase in rates of hospitalisation or death within 30 days of treatment among mCRC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone; these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the risk of residual confounding.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of second-line therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: In patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (hcc) following sorafenib failure, it is unclear which treatment is most efficacious, as treatments in the second-line setting have not been directly compared and no standard therapy exists. This systematic review and network meta-analysis (nma) aimed to compare the clinical benefits and toxicities of these treatments. Methods: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (rcts) was conducted to identify phase iii rcts in advanced hcc following sorafenib failure. Baseline characteristics and outcomes of placebo were examined for heterogeneity. Primary outcomes of interest were extracted for results, including overall survival (os), progression-free survival (pfs), objective response rate (orr), grade 3/4 toxicities, and subgroups. An nma was conducted to compare both drugs through the intermediate placebo. Comparisons were expressed as hazard ratios (hrs) for os and pfs, and as risk difference (rd) for orr and toxicities. Subgroup analyses for os and pfs were also performed. Results: Two rcts were identified (1280 patients) and compared through an indirect network; celestial (cabozantinib vs. placebo) and resorce (regorafenib vs. placebo). Baseline characteristics of patients in both trials were similar. Both trials also had similar placebo outcomes. Cabozantinib, compared with regorafenib, showed similar os [hazard ratio (hr): 1.21; 95% confidence interval (ci): 0.90 to 1.62], pfs (hr: 1.02; 95% ci: 0.78 to 1.34) and orr (-3.0%; 95% ci: -7.6% to 1.7%). Both treatments showed similar toxicities, but there were marginally higher risks of grade 3/4 hand-foot syndrome (5%; 95% ci: 0.1% to 9.8%), diarrhea (4.8%; 95% ci: 1.1% to 8.5%), and anorexia (4.4%; 95% ci: 0.8% to 8.0%) for cabozantinib. Subgroup results for os and pfs were consistent with overall results. Conclusions: Overall, this nma determined that cabozantinib and regorafenib have similar clinical benefits and toxicities for second-line hcc.

Reimbursement recommendations for cancer drugs supported by phase II evidence in Canada.

Background: Phase ii data are increasingly being used as primary evidence for public reimbursement for oncologic drugs. We compared the frequency of reimbursement recommendations for phase ii and phase iii submissions and assessed for variables associated with a positive or conditional recommendation. Methods: We identified submissions made to the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review's Expert Review Committee (perc), of the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, July 2011 to July 2019, that were supported only by phase ii data. We identified variables within the perc's deliberative framework, including clinical and economic factors, associated with the final reimbursement recommendation. We conducted a multivariable analysis with logistic regression for these variables: feasibility of phase iii study, hematologic indication, and unmet need. Results: We identified 139 submissions with a perc final recommendation. In 27 instances (19%), the submission had only phase ii evidence, and a positive recommendation was issued for 63% of them (the positive recommendation rate was 82% for submissions with phase iii evidence). Clinical benefit (p < 0.001), unmet need (p = 0.047), and patient alignment (p = 0.015) were associated with a positive recommendation. If a future phase iii study was deemed feasible for submissions with only phase ii evidence, then in univariable (p = 0.040) and multivariable analysis (p = 0.024), the perc was less likely to recommend reimbursement (odds ratio: 0.132). Conclusions: Although more than half the oncologic submissions with phase ii data were recommended for public reimbursement, compared with submissions having phase iii data, they were less likely to be recommended. A positive or conditional recommendation was more likely if clinical benefit and alignment with patient values was demonstrated. The perc was less likely to recommend reimbursement for submissions with phase ii evidence if a phase iii trial was deemed possible.

Proteomics Study of DNA-Protein Crosslinks in Methylmethanesulfonate and Fe2+-EDTA-Exposed Human Cells.

The formation of covalently bound DNA-protein crosslinks (DPCs) is linked to the pathophysiology of cancers and many other degenerative diseases. Knowledge of the proteins that were frequently involved in forming DPCs will improve our understanding of the etiological mechanism of diseases and facilitate the establishment of preventive measures and treatment methods. By using SDS-PAGE and nano-LC coupled Orbitrap LC-MS/MS analyses, we identified, for the first time, that the major DNA-cross-linked proteins in HeLa cells exposed to a methylating agent (methylmethanesulfonate) or hydroxyl free radicals are transcription-associated proteins. In particular, histone H2B3B and poly(rC) binding protein 2 were identified as the most frequent DPC-forming proteins.

Hong Kong College of Physicians Position Statement and Recommendations on the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension Guidelines for the Management of Arterial Hypertension.

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association released guidelines for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of high blood pressure (BP) in adults in 2017. In 2018, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Society of Hypertension (ESH) published new guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension. Despite the many similarities between these two guidelines, there are also major differences in the guidelines in terms of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. A working group of the Hong Kong College of Physicians (HKCP) convened and conducted a focused discussion on important issues of public interest, including classification of BP, BP measurement, thresholds for initiation of antihypertensive medications, BP treatment targets, and treatment strategies. The HKCP concurs with the 2018 ESC/ESH guideline on BP classification, which defines hypertension as office systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg. The HKCP also acknowledges the growing evidence of home BP monitoring and ambulatory BP monitoring in the diagnosis and monitoring of hypertension and endorses the wider use of both methods. The HKCP also supports the direction of a risk-based approach for initiation of antihypertensive medications and the specification of a treatment target range for both systolic and diastolic BP with consideration of different age-groups and specific disease subgroups. Non-pharmacological interventions are crucial, both at the societal and individual patient levels. The recent guideline publications provide good opportunities to increase public awareness of hypertension and encourage lifestyle modifications among the local population.