Assessing potential determinants of the stagnating trend in Salmonella Enteritidis human infections in Europe and options for intervention: A multi-criteria decision analysis.

Background: After years of significant decline, the incidence of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis (SE) human infections in Europe has started stagnating in recent years. The reasons for this stagnation remain largely unclear and are possibly multifactorial and interconnected in nature. We assessed and ranked several potential determinants of the stagnating SE trend in Europe, as well as different options for intervention at the level of poultry health and production, public health (infra)structure, and pathogen biology. Methods: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis (MCDA) approach based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process was used. Through two separate surveys, a European panel of Salmonella experts first provided weights for several pre-defined criteria and subsequently scored different potential determinants and options for intervention (i.e. alternatives) against the criteria, during 2020-21. The weighting and scoring were based on Saaty's pairwise comparisons. The final ranking of the alternatives was derived from the summation of the products of each criterion weight with the score of the corresponding alternative. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of different methodological choices, including European regions, and domains of expertise on the ranking of the determinants and options for intervention. Results: The first and second-ranked determinants of the stagnated trend in human SE infections were related to poultry health and production, namely "inadequacies of sampling programmes" and "premature relaxation of control measures". This ranking agreed with the ranking of the options for intervention, which were also those at the poultry health and production level, specifically "stricter biosecurity", "improving sampling", and "better/increased vaccination". Differences in rankings were observed among European regions and domains of expertise. Conclusions: The rankings of potential determinants and options for intervention for the stagnating SE trend in Europe pointed to the level of poultry health and production. Salmonella-control activities in poultry in Europe are harmonized across countries since many years, but the results of this study suggest that further improvements may be necessary for some countries. A multidisciplinary collaboration among veterinarians, public health professionals, and microbiologists is needed to further understand the origins of the stagnating SE trend and to identify effective interventions in order to reverse the trend, contextually in a given country, following a One Health approach.

Changing epidemiology of Salmonella Enteritidis human infections in the Netherlands and Belgium, 2006 to 2019: a registry-based population study.

BackgroundSalmonellosis remains the second most common zoonosis in the European Union despite a long-term decreasing trend. However, this trend has been reported to have stagnated in recent years, particularly for Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis (SE).AimTo describe temporal changes in the incidence of SE human infections, and in its associated factors between 2006 and 2019. In addition, we aim to determine which factors influenced the stagnated trend seen in recent years.MethodsData on culture-confirmed SE human infections from national surveillance registries in the Netherlands and Belgium between 2006 and 2019 were analysed using multivariable negative-binomial regression models with restricted cubic splines.ResultsSE incidence was significantly higher in summer and autumn than winter, in persons aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years than in persons ≥ 60 years, and increased with increasing proportions of travel-related and resistant SE infections. SE incidence decreased significantly in both countries until 2015, followed by an increasing trend, which was particularly pronounced in the Netherlands. Potential SE outbreaks in both countries and invasive infections in the Netherlands also increased after 2015.ConclusionThe increase in potential outbreaks and invasive infections since 2015 may partially explain the observed reversal of the decreasing trend. While these results provide insights into the possible causes of this trend reversal, attention should also be given to factors known to influence SE epidemiology at primary (animal) production and pathogen genomic levels.

Sources and trends of human salmonellosis in Europe, 2015-2019: An analysis of outbreak data.

Salmonella remains a major cause of foodborne outbreaks in Europe despite the implementation of harmonized control programmes. Outbreak data are observed at the public health endpoint and provide a picture of the most important sources of human salmonellosis at the level of exposure. To prioritize interventions, it is important to keep abreast of the sources and trends of salmonellosis outbreaks. The objective of this study was to determine the main food sources and recent trends of Salmonella outbreaks in Europe. Salmonella outbreak data from 34 European countries in 2015-2019 were obtained from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). For the source attribution analysis, implicated foods were categorized according to EFSA's zoonosis catalogue classification scheme. An established probabilistic source attribution model was applied using the information on the implicated foods, overall and by region and serotype. To assess significant trends in outbreak occurrence, overall and by region and serotype, mixed-effects Poisson models were used. Overall, the most important food source of salmonellosis outbreaks was eggs (33 %, 95 % Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 31-36 %), followed by pork (7 %, 95 % UI: 6-8 %), and (general) meat products (6 %, 95 % UI: 5-8 %). While eggs were the most important food source in all regions, pork was the second most common food source in Northern and Western Europe, and (general) meat products in Eastern and Southern Europe. Outbreaks caused by S. Enteritidis (SE) and other known serotypes (other than SE and S. Typhimurium and its monophasic variant [STM]) were mostly attributed to eggs (37 %, 95 % UI: 34-41 % and 17 %, 95 % UI: 11-25 %, respectively), whereas outbreaks caused by STM were mainly attributed to pork (34 %, 95 % UI: 27-42 %). Overall, there was a significant increase in the number of outbreaks reported between 2015 and 2019, by 5 % on average per year (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]: 1.05, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.09). This was driven by a significantly increased number of outbreaks in Eastern Europe, particularly those caused by SE (IRR: 1.15, 95 % CI: 1.09-1.22), whereas in Northern and Southern Europe, outbreaks caused by SE decreased significantly from 2015 to 2019 (IRR: 0.72, 95 % CI: 0.61-0.85; IRR: 0.70, 95 % CI: 0.62-0.79, respectively). Regional, temporal and serotype-associated differences in the relative contributions of the different sources were also observed.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human salmonellosis in the Netherlands.

The public health measures implemented to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may influence also other infectious diseases. Using national laboratory surveillance data, we assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human salmonellosis in the Netherlands until March 2021. Salmonellosis incidence decreased significantly after March 2020: in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2020, and in the first quarter of 2021, the incidence decreased by 55%, 57%, 47% and 37%, respectively, compared to the same quarters of 2016-2019. The decrease was strongest among travel-related cases (94%, 84%, 79% and 93% in the aforementioned quarters, respectively). Other significant changes were: increased proportion of cases among older adults and increased proportion of invasive infections, decreased proportion of trimethoprim resistance and increased proportion of serovar Typhimurium monophasic variant vs. Enteritidis. This led to decreased contributions of laying hens and increased contributions of pigs and cattle as sources of human infections. The observed changes probably reflect a combination of reduced exposure to Salmonella due to restrictions on international travels and gatherings, closure of dine-in restaurants, catering and hospitality sectors at large and changes in healthcare-seeking and diagnostic behaviours.

Fluoroquinolone resistance in Escherichia coli isolates after exposure to non-fluoroquinolone antibiotics: a retrospective case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether prior exposure to non-fluoroquinolone antibiotics increases the risk of fluoroquinolone resistance in Escherichia coli. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of data collected retrospectively in a case-control study linking microbiological test results (isolated bacteria and their susceptibility) of urine samples routinely collected from primary, secondary and tertiary care patients in Belgium with information on prior antibiotic use at the patient level up to 1 year previously. RESULTS: In urine samples from 6125 patients, 7204 E. coli isolates were retrieved [1949 fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates (cases) and 5255 fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates (controls)]. After adjusting for potential confounders (including fluoroquinolone use) and correcting for multiple testing there were lower odds of fluoroquinolone resistance in E. coli isolates after exposure to cefazolin (OR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.52-0.81; P = 0.00014) and higher odds after exposure to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.23-1.97; P =0.00020) or nitrofurantoin (OR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.23-1.84; P =0.000083). A sensitivity analysis excluding samples with antibiotic use during the 6 months prior to the sampling date confirmed the higher odds of fluoroquinolone resistance after exposure to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and nitrofurantoin. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming no residual confounding or other biases, this study suggests that exposure to non-fluoroquinolone antibiotics, i.e. trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and nitrofurantoin, might be causally related to fluoroquinolone resistance in E. coli isolates from urinary samples. Future prospective research is needed to confirm non-fluoroquinolone antibiotics as potential drivers of fluoroquinolone resistance.

Determination of the time-dependent association between ciprofloxacin consumption and ciprofloxacin resistance using a weighted cumulative exposure model compared with standard models.

OBJECTIVES: To obtain comprehensive insight into the association of ciprofloxacin use at different times in the past with the current risk of detecting resistance. METHODS: This retrospective nested case-control study of ciprofloxacin users used Dutch data from the PHARMO Database Network and one laboratory for the period 2003-14. Cases and controls were selected as patients with an antibiotic susceptibility test (AST) indicating ciprofloxacin resistance or susceptibility, respectively. We performed univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression analyses, defining time-dependent exposure using standard definitions (current ciprofloxacin use, used 0-30, 31-90, 91-180 and 181-360 days ago) and a flexible weighted cumulative effect (WCE) model with four alternative time windows of past doses (0-30, 0-90, 0-180 and 0-360 days). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 230 cases and 909 controls. Under the standard exposure definitions, the association of ciprofloxacin use with resistance decreased with time [current use: adjusted OR 6.8 (95% CI 3.6-12.4); used 181-360 days ago: 1.3 (0.8-1.9)]. Under the 90 day WCE model (best-fitting model), more recent doses were more strongly associated with resistance than past doses, as was longer or repeated treatment. The 180 day WCE model, which fitted the data equally well, suggested that doses taken 91-180 days ago were also significantly associated with resistance. CONCLUSIONS: The estimates for the association between ciprofloxacin use at different times and resistance show that ciprofloxacin prescribers should consider ciprofloxacin use 0-180 days ago to ensure that patients receive suitable treatment. The OR of ciprofloxacin resistance could be reduced by eliminating repeated ciprofloxacin prescription within 180 days and by treating for no longer than necessary.