Excess Fatal Overdoses in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Geography and Substance Type: March 2020-August 2021.

Objectives. To assess heterogeneity in pandemic-period excess fatal overdoses in the United States, by location (state, county) and substance type. Methods. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to estimate counterfactual death counts in the scenario that no pandemic had occurred. Such estimates were subtracted from actual death counts to assess the magnitude of pandemic-period excess mortality between March 2020 and August 2021. Results. Nationwide, we estimated 25 668 (95% prediction interval [PI] = 2811, 48 524) excess overdose deaths. Specifically, 17 of 47 states and 197 of 592 counties analyzed had statistically significant excess overdose-related mortality. West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and New Mexico had the highest rates (20-37 per 100 000). Nationally, there were 5.7 (95% PI = 1.0, 10.4), 3.1 (95% PI = 2.1, 4.2), and 1.4 (95% PI = 0.5, 2.4) excess deaths per 100 000 involving synthetic opioids, psychostimulants, and alcohol, respectively. Conclusions. The steep increase in overdose-related mortality affected primarily the southern and western United States. We identified synthetic opioids and psychostimulants as the main contributors. Public Health Implications. Characterizing overdose-related excess mortality across locations and substance types is critical for optimal allocation of public health resources. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):599-609. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307618).

Stochastic consolidation of lifelong memory.

Humans have the remarkable ability to continually store new memories, while maintaining old memories for a lifetime. How the brain avoids catastrophic forgetting of memories due to interference between encoded memories is an open problem in computational neuroscience. Here we present a model for continual learning in a recurrent neural network combining Hebbian learning, synaptic decay and a novel memory consolidation mechanism: memories undergo stochastic rehearsals with rates proportional to the memory's basin of attraction, causing self-amplified consolidation. This mechanism gives rise to memory lifetimes that extend much longer than the synaptic decay time, and retrieval probability of memories that gracefully decays with their age. The number of retrievable memories is proportional to a power of the number of neurons. Perturbations to the circuit model cause temporally-graded retrograde and anterograde deficits, mimicking observed memory impairments following neurological trauma.

A novel Vascular Leak Index identifies sepsis patients with a higher risk for in-hospital death and fluid accumulation.

PURPOSE: Sepsis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is characterized by vascular leak. Treatment for sepsis, specifically intravenous fluids, may worsen deterioration in the context of vascular leak. We therefore sought to quantify vascular leak in sepsis patients to guide fluid resuscitation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of sepsis patients in four ICU databases in North America, Europe, and Asia. We developed an intuitive vascular leak index (VLI) and explored the relationship between VLI and in-hospital death and fluid balance using generalized additive models (GAM). RESULTS: Using a GAM, we found that increased VLI is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death. Patients with a VLI in the highest quartile (Q4), across the four datasets, had a 1.61-2.31 times increased odds of dying in the hospital compared to patients with a VLI in the lowest quartile (Q1). VLI Q2 and Q3 were also associated with increased odds of dying. The relationship between VLI, treated as a continuous variable, and in-hospital death and fluid balance was statistically significant in the three datasets with large sample sizes. Specifically, we observed that as VLI increased, there was increase in the risk for in-hospital death and 36-84 h fluid balance. CONCLUSIONS: Our VLI identifies groups of patients who may be at higher risk for in-hospital death or for fluid accumulation. This relationship persisted in models developed to control for severity of illness and chronic comorbidities.

Screening of Parkinson's Disease Using Geometric Features Extracted from Spiral Drawings.

Conventional means of Parkinson's Disease (PD) screening rely on qualitative tests typically administered by trained neurologists. Tablet technologies that enable data collection during handwriting and drawing tasks may provide low-cost, portable, and instantaneous quantitative methods for high-throughput PD screening. However, past efforts to use data from tablet-based drawing processes to distinguish between PD and control populations have demonstrated only moderate classification ability. Focusing on digitized drawings of Archimedean spirals, the present study utilized data from the open-access ParkinsonHW dataset to improve existing PD drawing diagnostic pipelines. Random forest classifiers were constructed using previously documented features and highly-predictive, newly-proposed features that leverage the many unique mathematical characteristics of the Archimedean spiral. This approach yielded an AUC of 0.999 on the particular dataset we tested on, and more importantly identified interpretable features with good promise for generalization across diverse patient cohorts. It demonstrated the potency of mathematical relationships inherent to the drawing shape and the usefulness of sparse feature sets and simple models, which further enhance interpretability, in the face of limited sample size. The results of this study also inform suggestions for future drawing task design and data analytics (feature extraction, shape selection, task diversity, drawing templates, and data sharing).

Lag time between state-level policy interventions and change points in COVID-19 outcomes in the United States.

State-level policy interventions have been critical in managing the spread of the new coronavirus. Here, we study the lag time between policy interventions and change in COVID-19 outcome trajectory in the United States. We develop a stepwise drifts random walk model to account for non-stationarity and strong temporal correlation and subsequently apply a change-point detection algorithm to estimate the number and times of change points in the COVID-19 outcome data. Furthermore, we harmonize data on the estimated change points with non-pharmaceutical interventions adopted by each state of the United States, which provides us insights regarding the lag time between the enactment of a policy and its effect on COVID-19 outcomes. We present the estimated change points for each state and the District of Columbia and find five different emerging trajectory patterns. We also provide insight into the lag time between the enactment of a policy and its effect on COVID-19 outcomes.

Low-Cost, Smartphone-Based Specular Imaging and Automated Analysis of the Corneal Endothelium.

Purpose: Specular and confocal microscopes are important tools to monitor the health of the corneal endothelium (CE), but their high costs significantly limit accessibility in low-resource environments. We developed and validated a low-cost, fully automated method to quantitatively evaluate the CE using smartphone-based specular microscopy. Methods: A OnePlus 7 Pro smartphone attached to a Topcon SL-D701 slit-lamp was used to image the central corneal endothelium of 30 eyes using the specular reflection technique. A novel on-device image processing algorithm automatically computed endothelial cell density (ECD), percentage of hexagonal cells (HEX), and coefficient of variation (CV) values. These values were compared with the ECD, HEX, and CV generated by a Tomey EM-4000 specular microscope used to image the same set of eyes. Results: No significant differences were found in ECD (2799 ± 156 cells/mm2 vs. 2779 ± 166 cells/mm2; P = 0.28) and HEX (52 ± 6% vs. 53 ± 6%; P = 0.50) computed by smartphone-based specular imaging and specular microscope, respectively. A statistically significant difference in CV (34 ± 3% vs. 30 ± 3%; P < 0.01) was found between the two methods. The concordance achieved between the smartphone-based method and the Tomey specular microscope is very similar to the concordance between two specular microscopes reported in the literature. Conclusions: Smartphone-based specular imaging and automated analysis is a low-cost method to quantitatively evaluate the CE with accuracy comparable to the clinical standard. Translational Relevance: This tool can be used to screen the CE in low-resource regions and prompt investigation of suspected corneal endotheliopathies.

Perfluoro-n-octane as a temporary intraocular tamponade in a staged approach to manage complex retinal detachments.

PURPOSE: To evaluate outcomes in patients with complex retinal detachments (RD) with proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) requiring retinectomy using a staged approach utilizing perfluoro-n-octane (PFO) as a short-term postoperative intraocular tamponade. METHODS: Retrospective analysis. Patients who underwent 23G pars plana vitrectomy for the management of complicated RD where PFO was used as a primary temporary intraocular tamponade. Only eyes with PVR in rhegmatogenous RD or eyes with penetrating injuries or globe ruptures (ocular trauma) and subsequent RD with PVR were included. Analysis of 17 eyes of 17 consecutive patients with a minimum follow-up of 12 months during a period of 5 years. The primary outcome measure was the reattachment rate after at least 12 months of follow-up after the PFO removal. Secondary outcome measures were changes in visual acuity, complications due to PFO use, and necessity for further surgeries. RESULTS: Eight eyes with prior penetrating injuries or globe rupture and nine eyes with rhegmatogenous pathology were included. All eyes had PFO as temporary tamponade for 14 days (median), which was replaced by silicon oil. Sixteen eyes (94%) had complete and one eye partial reattachment. No redetachments occurred. All eyes retained or improved visual acuity. On average, only 2.5 procedures, including silicon oil removal, were performed. Two eyes had long-term intraocular pressure of 5 mmHg and no eye had intraocular pressure of ≥21 mmHg. No long-term inflammation was observed. CONCLUSION: PFO seems to be beneficial in a staged approach to repair complex detachments when used as short-term tamponade. A median period of 14 days allowed for both sufficient retinal support plus a reduction in side effects seen in long-term endotamponades.

Hybrid 20/23-gauge pars plana vitrectomy for retained lens fragments after cataract surgery.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the outcome and surgery-associated risks in patients undergoing 23-gauge pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) for retained lens fragments. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 42 eyes of 42 consecutive patients at a tertiary teaching hospital in Sydney (Australia) during a period of 4 years. Evaluation of final visual acuity, complications, differences in patients receiving an intraocular lens at the primary cataract surgery, and differences in final visual acuity regarding the usage of a phacofragmatome and analysis of pars plana vitrectomy-related complications. RESULTS: The majority (83.3%) achieved a visual acuity of 0.3 (logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution) or better, and 19 eyes (45.2%) achieved a final visual acuity of 0 (logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution). Overall, 95.2% of the eyes had a better postoperative visual acuity compared with the preoperative visual acuity. There were no differences in proportions regarding the final visual acuity in patients who had an intraocular lens at the time of the pars plana vitrectomy and those who had a secondary lens implant. A retinal detachment after the lens fragment removal was observed in 2 eyes. CONCLUSION: Dropped lens fragments because of complicated cataract surgery can be managed well with 23-gauge pars plana vitrectomy: The majority of patients achieve a good visual acuity despite 2 surgeries at a rather low rate of retinal complications.

Postoperative Morganella morganii endophthalmitis associated with subclinical urinary tract infection.

We report a case of Morganella morganii acute endophthalmitis following clear corneal phacoemulsification cataract surgery in which a coincident asymptomatic chronic urinary tract infection was detected postoperatively. Morganella morganii is a gram-negative bacillus that inhabits the gastrointestinal tract and is part of the normal fecal flora. It is an opportunistic pathogen usually encountered in postoperative and nosocomial settings, causing urinary tract and wound infections. Chronic urinary tract infection may be a risk factor for postoperative endophthalmitis. A dipstick urinalysis before elective cataract surgery in elderly patients with a history of recurrent urinary tract infections may be considered.