Modeling economic impacts of mobility restriction policy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The economic impacts of pandemics can be enormous. However, lockdown and human mobility restrictions are effective policies for containing the spread of the disease. This study proposes a framework for assessing the economic impact of varying degrees of movement restrictions and examines the effectiveness of this framework in a case study examining COVID-19 control measures in Japan. First, mobile network operators data and total employment statistics on a 500-meter grid scale are used to determine the status of mobility restrictions and impacts on consumption in 30 industrial sectors. Next, the economic impacts are assessed using a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, proven to yield valuable insights into the total economic impacts of natural disasters. In sectors that implement telework and e-commerce-wholesale/retail, finance/insurance, and communication sectors-estimates of production and GDP are obtained that are close to the actual figures. The current case study is limited to Japan, but similar analysis can be conducted by using the CGE model for each country and open mobility data. Thus, the framework has potential to serve as an effective tool for assessing trade-offs between infection risks and economic impacts to inform policy-making by combining with findings from epidemiology.

Business recovery from disasters: Lessons from natural hazards and the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper compares economic recovery in the COVID-19 pandemic with other types of disasters, at the scale of businesses. As countries around the world struggle to emerge from the pandemic, studies of business impact and recovery have proliferated; however, pandemic research is often undertaken without the benefit of insights from long-standing research on past large-scale disruptive events, such as floods, storms, and earthquakes. This paper builds synergies between established knowledge on business recovery in disasters and emerging insights from the COVID-19 pandemic. It first proposes a disaster event taxonomy that allows the pandemic to be compared with natural hazard events from the perspective of economic disruption. The paper then identifies five key lessons on business recovery from disasters and compares them to empirical findings from the COVID-19 pandemic. For synthesis, a conceptual framework on business recovery is developed to support policy-makers to anticipate business recovery needs in economically disruptive events, including disasters. Findings from the pandemic largely resonate with those from disasters. Recovery tends to be more difficult for small businesses, those vulnerable to supply chain problems, those facing disrupted markets, and locally-oriented businesses in heavily impacted neighborhoods. Disaster assistance that is fast and less restrictive provides more effective support for business recovery. Some differences emerge, however: substantial business disruption in the pandemic derived from changes in demand due to regulatory measures as well as consumer behaviour; businesses in high-income neighborhoods and central business districts were especially affected; and traditional forms of financial assistance may need to be reconsidered.

Understanding the Impacts of Maritime Disruption Transportation to Hospital-Based Acute Health Care Supplies and Personnel in Coastal and Geographically Isolated Communities.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify maritime transportation disruption impacts on available health care supplies and workers necessary to deliver hospital-based acute health care in geographically isolated communities post-disaster. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 25 key informants knowledgeable about the hospital-based acute health care supply chain and workforce emergency management plans and procedures in 2 coastal communities in British Columbia. These locations were accessed primarily through maritime transportation, including one urban center and one smaller, more remote community. Interview transcriptions were thematically analyzed. RESULTS: Critical vulnerabilities to hospital-based acute health care delivery due to a maritime transportation disruption identified include lack of information about the existing supply chain, lack of formal plans and agreements, and limited local supply storage and workforce capacity. Measures to decrease vulnerability and enhance system capacity can be fostered to enhance acute health care system resilience for these and other geographically isolated communities. CONCLUSIONS: A maritime transportation disruption has the potential to impact the availability of hospital-based health care supplies and health care personnel necessary to deliver acute health care in coastal communities post-disaster. Multisector engagement is required to address complex interdependencies and competing priorities in emergency response. Additional research and public-private collaboration is necessary to quantify potential impacts of maritime transportation disruption on the acute health care system. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:440-448).

Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.

Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

This paper provides a framework for assessing empirical patterns of urban disaster recovery through the use of statistical indicators. Such a framework is needed to develop systematic knowledge on how cities recover from disasters. The proposed framework addresses such issues as defining recovery, filtering out exogenous influences unrelated to the disaster, and making comparisons across disparate areas or events. It is applied to document how Kobe City, Japan, recovered from the catastrophic 1995 earthquake. Findings indicate that while aggregate population regained pre-disaster levels in ten years, population had shifted away from the older urban core. Economic recovery was characterised by a three to four year temporary boost in reconstruction activities, followed by settlement at a level some ten per cent below pre-disaster levels. Other long-term effects included substantial losses of port activity and sectoral shifts toward services and large businesses. These patterns of change and disparity generally accelerated pre-disaster trends.

Improving earthquake loss estimation : Review, assessment and extension of loss estimation methodologies

The overall goals of the research are to link engineering system vulnerability analysis with the best-available techniques of economic analysis, to produce integrated models of physical and economic loss, and to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of loss estimation methods through the application of advanced and emerging technologies. This program of research focuses both on general methodological refinements and model improvement and on applications that will support MCEER's power and water lifeline and hospital demonstration projects

Indirect methods for estimating elements of the built physical environment for risk and damage assessment and relief, recovery, and reconstruction planning

This paper reports results of studies of develop indirect methods for estimating existing elements of the built physical environment, since need inventories do not exist and are expensive and time consuming to make. Applications are presented and estimates for a variety of situations shown. With estimates of the elements a risk in an earthquake or other natural disaster, it will be possible to apply inventories of damage to determine damage rates, develop better vulnerability assessments, and plan relief, recovery, and reconstruction more quickly and efficiently (AU)