Economic effects of command-and-control abatement policies under China's 2030 carbon emission goal.

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, China has committed to reducing its national carbon emission intensity, which is a measure of carbon dioxide produced per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), by 65% by 2030 compared with the level in 2005. The government is pursuing corresponding abatement initiatives to achieve this goal. Coupling the physical data of sectoral energy inputs and emissions with a mixed exogenous/endogenous input-output model, this study first projected the carbon emissions in 2030 under a business-as-usual baseline and then investigated the potential economic effects of the "command-and-control" approach for reducing carbon emissions by limiting production capacity and strengthening forest carbon sink management. Three carbon abatement scenarios were evaluated from the perspectives of social equity, abatement efficiency, and forest carbon sinks. Our results indicated that, under the 2030 carbon emission goal, the GDP in China would decline by 17.17-41.26 trillion yuan (equivalent to a marginal abatement cost of 2315-5387 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide reduction), depending on different policy initiatives. The policy of carbon reduction for high-emission sectors only is more cost-effective and economically efficient and has resulted in fewer negative economic impacts than the policy of requiring all economic sectors to do so. Asking high-carbon emission industries to undertake carbon abatement can further reduce national carbon emission intensity. Additionally, promoting forest carbon sinks as an abatement initiative also demonstrates substantial economic benefits for society.

Benefit-cost analysis of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) control: incorporating market and non-market values.

This study employs a benefit-cost analysis framework to estimate market and non-market benefits and costs of controlling future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks on Crown forest lands in New Brunswick, Canada. We used: (i) an advanced timber supply model to project potential timber volume saved, timber value benefits, and costs of pest control efforts; and (ii) a recent contingent valuation method analysis that evaluated non-market benefits (i.e., changes in recreation opportunities and existence values) of controlling future spruce budworm outbreaks in the Province. A total of six alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two uncontrolled future budworm outbreak severities (moderate vs. severe) and, for each severity, three control program levels (protecting 10%, 20%, or 40% of the susceptible Crown land forest area). The economic criteria used to evaluate each scenario included benefit-cost ratios and net present values. Under severe outbreak conditions, results indicated that the highest benefit-cost ratio (4.04) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area, and the highest net present value ($111 M) occurred when protecting 20% (568,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Under moderate outbreak conditions, the highest benefit-cost ratio (3.24) and net present value ($58.7 M) occurred when protecting 10% (284,000 ha) of the susceptible area. Inclusion of non-market values generally increased the benefit-cost ratios and net present values of the control programs, and in some cases, led to higher levels of control being supported. Results of this study highlight the importance of including non-market values into the decision making process of forest pest management.