The importance of culling in Johne's disease control.

Johne's disease is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection and results in economic losses in the dairy industry. To control MAP transmission in herds, test-based culling has been recommended and immediate culling of high shedding animals is typically implemented. In this study, we quantified the effects of MAP control in US dairy herds, using the basic reproduction ratio R(0). The effectiveness of culling strategies was evaluated for good and poor herd management (low- and high-transmission rates, respectively) by a phase diagram approach. To establish a quantitative relationship between culling rates and test properties, we defined the average detection times for low and high shedding animals. The effects of various culling strategies and test characteristics, such as test sensitivity, test turnaround time, and testing interval, were analyzed. To understand the overall effect of model parameters on R(0), we performed global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. We also evaluated the effectiveness of culling only high shedding animals by comparing three test methods (fecal culture, fecal polymerase chain reaction, PCR, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA). Our study shows that, in the case of good herd management, culling of only high shedding animals may be effective in controlling MAP transmission. However, in the case of poor management, in addition to immediate culling of high shedding animals, culling of low shedding animals (based on the fecal culture test) will be necessary. Culling of low shedding animals may be delayed 6-12 months, however, if a shorter testing interval is applied. This study suggests that if farmers prefer culling only high shedding animals, faster MAP detection tests (such as the fecal PCR and ELISA) of higher sensitivity should be applied with high testing frequency, particularly on farms with poor management. Culling of infectious animals with a longer testing interval is generally not effective to control MAP.

The effect of heterogeneous infectious period and contagiousness on the dynamics of Salmonella transmission in dairy cattle.

The objective of this study was to address the impact of heterogeneity of infectious period and contagiousness on Salmonella transmission dynamics in dairy cattle populations. We developed three deterministic SIR-type models with two basic infected stages (clinically and subclinically infected). In addition, model 2 included long-term shedders, which were defined as individuals with low contagiousness but long infectious period, and model 3 included super-shedders (individuals with high contagiousness and long infectious period). The simulated dynamics, basic reproduction number (R0) and critical vaccination threshold were studied. Clinically infected individuals were the main force of infection transmission for models 1 and 2. Long-term shedders had a small impact on the transmission of the infection and on the estimated vaccination thresholds. The presence of super-shedders increases R0 and decreases the effectiveness of population-wise strategies to reduce infection, making necessary the application of strategies that target this specific group.

Simulation modeling to evaluate the persistence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) on commercial dairy farms in the United States.

We developed a series of deterministic mathematical models of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) transmission on commercial US dairies. Our models build upon and modify models and assumptions in previous work to better reflect the pathobiology of the disease. Parameter values were obtained from literature for animal turnover in US dairy herds and rates of transition between disease states. The models developed were used to test three hypotheses. (1) Infectious transmission following intervention is relatively insensitive to the presence of high-shedding animals. (2) Vertical and pseudo-vertical transmission increases prevalence of disease but is insufficient to explain persistence following intervention. (3) Transiently shedding young animals might aid persistence. Our simulations indicated that multiple levels of contagiousness among infected adult animals in combination with vertical transmission and MAP shedding in infected young animals explained the maintenance of low-prevalence infections in herds. High relative contagiousness of high-shedding adult animals resulted in these animals serving as the predominant contributor to transmission. This caused elimination of infection in herds using the test-and-cull intervention tested in these simulations. Addition of vertical transmission caused persistence of infection in a moderately complicated model. In the most complex model that allowed age-based contacts, calf-to-calf transmission was required for persistence.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd.

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.