Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time.

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an 'integrated database' is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration.

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Bright radio emission from an ultraluminous stellar-mass microquasar in M 31.

A subset of ultraluminous X-ray sources (those with luminosities of less than 10(40) erg s(-1); ref. 1) are thought to be powered by the accretion of gas onto black holes with masses of ∼5-20M cicled dot, probably by means of an accretion disk. The X-ray and radio emission are coupled in such Galactic sources; the radio emission originates in a relativistic jet thought to be launched from the innermost regions near the black hole, with the most powerful emission occurring when the rate of infalling matter approaches a theoretical maximum (the Eddington limit). Only four such maximal sources are known in the Milky Way, and the absorption of soft X-rays in the interstellar medium hinders the determination of the causal sequence of events that leads to the ejection of the jet. Here we report radio and X-ray observations of a bright new X-ray source in the nearby galaxy M 31, whose peak luminosity exceeded 10(39) erg s(-1). The radio luminosity is extremely high and shows variability on a timescale of tens of minutes, arguing that the source is highly compact and powered by accretion close to the Eddington limit onto a black hole of stellar mass. Continued radio and X-ray monitoring of such sources should reveal the causal relationship between the accretion flow and the powerful jet emission.