British Escherichia coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS): to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157 in herds with cattle destined for the food chain.

Escherichia coli O157 are zoonotic bacteria for which cattle are an important reservoir. Prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 in British cattle for human consumption are over 10 years old. A new baseline is needed to inform current human health risk. The British E. coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS) ran between September 2014 and November 2015 on 270 farms across Scotland and England & Wales. This is the first study to be conducted contemporaneously across Great Britain, thus enabling comparison between Scotland and England & Wales. Herd-level prevalence estimates for E. coli O157 did not differ significantly for Scotland (0·236, 95% CI 0·166-0·325) and England & Wales (0·213, 95% CI 0·156-0·283) (P = 0·65). The majority of isolates were verocytotoxin positive. A higher proportion of samples from Scotland were in the super-shedder category, though there was no difference between the surveys in the likelihood of a positive farm having at least one super-shedder sample. E. coli O157 continues to be common in British beef cattle, reaffirming public health policy that contact with cattle and their environments is a potential infection source.

Disease transmission on fragmented contact networks: livestock-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the Danish pig-industry.

Animal trade in industrialised livestock-production systems creates a complex, heterogeneous, contact network that shapes between-herd transmission of infectious diseases. We report the results of a simple mathematical model that explores patterns of spread and persistence of livestock-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in the Danish pig-industry associated with this trade network. Simulations show that LA-MRSA can become endemic sustained by animal movements alone. Despite the extremely low predicted endemic prevalence, eradication may be difficult, and decreasing within-farm prevalence, or the time it takes a LA-MRSA positive farm to recover a negative status, fails to break long-term persistence. Our results suggest that a low level of non-movement induced transmission strongly affects MRSA dynamics, increasing endemic prevalence and probability of persistence. We also compare the model-predicted risk of 291 individual farms becoming MRSA positive, with results from a recent Europe-wide survey of LA-MRSA in holdings with breeding pigs, and find a significant correlation between contact-network connectivity properties and the model-estimated risk measure.

Comparison of subjective scoring systems used to evaluate equine laminitis.

This study compared three subjective scoring systems used to assess lameness associated with equine laminitis: (1) visual analogue scale, (2) Obel score and (3) clinical grading system (CGS). Two groups of 12 observers, consisting of equine veterinarians and final-year veterinary students, scored lameness severity after watching video footage of 14 horses on two occasions. Generalizability theory was used to investigate the reliability of the three systems and the effects of observer experience. Overall reliability across all times and observers was high. Intra-observer reliability was higher than inter-observer reliability for all scoring systems, with student reliability being consistently lower than veterinarians, especially for Obel and CGS. All three methods were reasonably reliable tools for assessing lameness, but they were more limited in the hands of inexperienced observers.

A comparison of four systems for scoring recovery quality after general anaesthesia in horses.

REASON FOR PERFORMING STUDY: The recovery quality scoring systems (RQSSs) in current use have not been critically reviewed for reliability. OBJECTIVE: To examine reliability (reproducibility) of 4 RQSSs when applied to a ranked series. METHODS: A DVD incorporating the recordings of 9 horses recovering from general anaesthesia was evaluated by final year students over 5 days. On Day 1, each evaluator ranked recoveries from 1-9 (1 = best). Over the following 4 days, each evaluator scored the same recoveries using 4 different RQSSs (3 of them in common usage and previously published) applied in random order. The scores from each RQSS were ranked and plotted against the Day 1 ranking of each evaluator to establish the extent of agreement using generalisability theory. The same 9 recoveries were also ranked by 12 experienced equine anaesthetists and the Spearman Rank Correlation coefficient calculated to determine the agreement between experienced and inexperienced evaluators. RESULTS: The recoveries were evaluated by 117 students. All 4 RQSSs were equally reliable with low (<4%) interobserver variability. The main (80%) source of total variation arose from differences between horses. The overall ranking within each RQSS was strongly correlated with Day 1 ranking. There was strong correlation (r = 0.983) between the students' ranking and that established by experienced anaesthetists. Interobserver reliability was similar with all 4 RQSSs. CONCLUSION: All 4 RQSSs studied were similarly reliable. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The selection of a universally acceptable RQSS from amongst the 4 examined can be based on criteria other than reliability, e.g. ease of use. This will facilitate wider scale multi-centre studies in recovery quality after anaesthesia in horses.

Epidemiology of porcine non-specific colitis on Scottish farms.

The objective of this study was to investigate epidemiological risk factors for porcine non-specific colitis (NSC). Forty-seven Scottish pig farms, with and without a clinical history of diarrhoea during the growing period (15-40 kg), were selected. The study included farm visits, clinical inspection of pigs, completion of farm management questionnaires, pathological tests into the cause of the diarrhoea and analysis of the non-starch polysaccharide (NSP) content of feeds. The results from 17 farms designated as NSC and 10 control farms suggest dietary associations with NSC. Farms with NSC fed diets with significantly higher levels of NSPs, especially containing the sugars glucose, arabinose and xylose. Few management factors were identified, although the high prevalence of infectious colitis reduced the power of the study.

Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons.

Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.

Neighbourhood control policies and the spread of infectious diseases.

We present a model of a control programme for a disease outbreak in a population of livestock holdings. Control is achieved by culling infectious holdings when they are discovered and by the pre-emptive culling of livestock on holdings deemed to be at enhanced risk of infection. Because the pre-emptive control programme cannot directly identify exposed holdings, its implementation will result in the removal of both infected and uninfected holdings. This leads to a fundamental trade-off: increased levels of control produce a greater reduction in transmission by removing more exposed holdings, but increase the number of uninfected holdings culled. We derive an expression for the total number of holdings culled during the course of an outbreak and demonstrate that there is an optimal control policy, which minimizes this loss. Using a metapopulation model to incorporate local clustering of infection, we examine a neighbourhood control programme in a locally spreading outbreak. We find that there is an optimal level of control, which increases with increasing basic reproduction ratio, R(0); moreover, implementation of control may be optimal even when R(0) < 1. The total loss to the population is relatively insensitive to the level of control as it increases beyond the optimal level, suggesting that over-control is a safer policy than under-control.

Factors influencing the shedding of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 by beef suckler cows.

A study was designed to investigate management factors that might influence the shedding of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) O157 by beef cows in Scotland, where there is a particularly high rate of human infection. Thirty-two herds were visited at least monthly over approximately 1 year for collection of fresh faecal pat samples and information on management factors. The faecal pat samples were tested for VTEC O157 by established culture and immunomagnetic separation methods. Questionnaires were completed at the monthly visits to record management factors. Data were analysed using both univariate and multi-factor (GLMM) analysis. Changes in the number of cows in a group, dogs, wild geese, housing, and the feeding of draff (distillers' grains) were statistically significant as risk factors. The event of calving appeared to reduce the likelihood of shedding. Any effects of weaning or turnout were not statistically significant. It appears that the rate of shedding of VTEC O157 is influenced by several factors but possibly the most important of these are the circumstances of animals being housed, or, when outside, the presence of wild geese.

Comparative epidemiology of scrapie outbreaks in individual sheep flocks.

Data recording the course of scrapie outbreaks in 4 sheep flocks (2 in Cheviot sheep and 2 in Suffolks) are compared. For each outbreak the data on scrapie incidence and sheep demography and pedigrees cover periods of years or decades. A key finding is that the incidence of clinical cases peaks in sheep 2-3 years old, despite very different forces-of-infection. This is consistent with age-specific susceptibility of sheep to scrapie, as has been reported for cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and for humans to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Scrapie incidence was higher in ewes than rams and at certain times of years, though these effects were not consistent between flocks. There was no evidence for high levels of vertical transmission.