What predictors matter: Risk factors for late adolescent outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: A life course approach and linked Manitoba data from birth to age 18 were used to facilitate comparisons of two important outcomes: high school graduation and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). With a common set of variables, we sought to answer the following questions: Do the measures predicting high school graduation differ from those that predict ADHD? Which factors are most important? How well do the models fit each outcome? METHODS: Administrative data from the Population Health Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy were used to conduct one of the strongest observational designs: multilevel modelling of large population (n = 62,739) and sibling (n = 29,444) samples. Variables included are neighbourhood characteristics, measures of family stability, and mental and physical health conditions in childhood and adolescence. RESULTS: The adverse childhood experiences important for each outcome differ. While family instability and economic adversity more strongly affect failing to graduate from high school, adverse health events in childhood and early adolescence have a greater effect on late adolescent ADHD. The variables included in the model provided excellent accuracy and discrimination. CONCLUSION: These results offer insights on the role of several family and social variables and can serve as the basis for reliable, valid prediction tools that can identify high-risk individuals. Applying such a tool at the population level would provide insight into the future burden of these outcomes in an entire region or nation and further quantify the burden of risk in the population.

Data resource profile: Pathways to Health and Social Equity for Children (PATHS Equity for Children).

The PATHS Data Resource is a unique database comprising data that follow individuals from the prenatal period to adulthood. The PATHS Resource was developed for conducting longitudinal epidemiological research into child health and health equity. It contains individual-level data on health, socioeconomic status, social services and education. Individuals' data are linkable across these domains, allowing researchers to follow children through childhood and across a variety of sectors. PATHS includes nearly all individuals that were born between 1984 and 2012 and registered with Manitoba's universal health insurance programme at some point during childhood. All PATHS data are anonymized. Key concepts, definitions and algorithms necessary to work with the PATHS Resource are freely accessible online and an interactive forum is available to new researchers working with these data. The PATHS Resource is one of the richest and most complete databases assembled for conducting longitudinal epidemiological research, incorporating many variables that address the social determinants of health and health equity. Interested researchers are encouraged to contact [mchp_access@cpe.umanitoba.ca] to obtain access to PATHS to use in their own programmes of research.

Dementia and depression with ischemic heart disease: a population-based longitudinal study comparing interventional approaches to medical management.

BACKGROUND: We compared the proportion of ischemic heart disease (IHD) patients newly diagnosed with dementia and depression across three treatment groups: percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and medical management alone (IHD-medical). METHODS AND FINDINGS: De-identified, individual-level administrative records of health service use for the population of Manitoba, Canada (approximately 1.1 million) were examined. From April 1, 1993 to March 31, 1998, patients were identified with a diagnosis of IHD (ICD-9-CM codes). Index events of CABG or PCI were identified from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 2003. Outcomes were depression or dementia after the index event. Patients were followed forward to March 31, 2006 or until censored. Proportional hazards regression analysis was undertaken. Independent variables examined were age, sex, diabetes, hypertension and income quintile, medical management alone for IHD, or intervention by PCI or CABG. Age, sex, diabetes, and presence of hypertension were all strongly associated with the diagnosis of depression and dementia. There was no association with income quintile. Dementia was less frequent with PCI compared to medical management; (HR = 0.65; p = 0.017). CABG did not provide the same protective effect compared to medical management (HR = 0.90; p = 0.372). New diagnosis depression was more frequent with interventional approaches: PCI (n = 626; hazard ratio = 1.25; p = 0.028) and CABG (n = 1124, HR = 1.32; p = 0.0001) than non-interventional patients (n = 34,508). Subsequent CABG was nearly 16-fold higher (p<0.0001) and subsequent PCI was 22-fold higher (p<0.0001) for PCI-managed than CABG-managed patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients managed with PCI had the lowest likelihood of dementia-only 65% of the risk for medical management alone. Both interventional approaches were associated with a higher risk of new diagnosed depression compared to medical management. Long-term myocardial revascularization was superior with CABG. These findings suggest that PCI may confer a long-term protective effect from dementia. The mechanism(s) of dementia protection requires elucidation.

Evidence-based prescribing of antibiotics for children: role of socioeconomic status and physician characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based guidelines for antibiotic use are well established, but nonadherence to these guidelines continues. This study was undertaken to determine child, household and physician factors predictive of nonadherence to evidence-based antibiotic prescribing in children. METHODS: The prescription and health care records of 20 000 Manitoba children were assessed for 2 criteria of nonadherence to evidence-based antibiotic prescribing during the period from fiscal year 1996 (April 1996 to March 1997) to fiscal year 2000: receipt of an antibiotic for a viral respiratory tract infection (VRTI) and initial use of a second-line agent for acute otitis media, pharyngitis, pneumonia, urinary tract infection or cellulitis. The likelihood of nonadherence to evidence-based prescribing, according to child demographic characteristics, physician factors (specialty and place of training) and household income, was determined from hierarchical linear modelling. Child visits were nested within physicians, and the most parsimonious model was selected at p < 0.05. RESULTS: During the study period, 45% of physician visits for VRTI resulted in an antibiotic prescription, and 20% of antibiotic prescriptions were for second-line antibiotics. Relative to general practitioners, the odds ratio for antibiotic prescription for a VRTI was 0.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42-0.62) for pediatricians and 1.58 (95% CI 1.03-2.42) for other specialists. The likelihood that an antibiotic would be prescribed for a VRTI was 0.99 for each successive 10,000 Canadian dollars increase in household income. Pediatricians and other specialists were more likely than general practitioners to prescribe second-line antibiotics for initial therapy. Both criteria for nonadherence to evidence-based prescribing were 40% less likely among physicians trained in Canada or the United States than among physicians trained elsewhere. INTERPRETATION: The links that we identified between nonadherence to evidence-based antibiotic prescribing in children and physician specialty and location of training suggest opportunities for intervention. The independent effect of household income indicates that parents also have an important role.