Sequential mutations in exponentially growing populations.

Stochastic models of sequential mutation acquisition are widely used to quantify cancer and bacterial evolution. Across manifold scenarios, recurrent research questions are: how many cells are there with n alterations, and how long will it take for these cells to appear. For exponentially growing populations, these questions have been tackled only in special cases so far. Here, within a multitype branching process framework, we consider a general mutational path where mutations may be advantageous, neutral or deleterious. In the biologically relevant limiting regimes of large times and small mutation rates, we derive probability distributions for the number, and arrival time, of cells with n mutations. Surprisingly, the two quantities respectively follow Mittag-Leffler and logistic distributions regardless of n or the mutations' selective effects. Our results provide a rapid method to assess how altering the fundamental division, death, and mutation rates impacts the arrival time, and number, of mutant cells. We highlight consequences for mutation rate inference in fluctuation assays.

Ancestral reproductive bias in branching processes.

Consider a branching process whose reproduction law is homogeneous. Sampling a single cell uniformly from the population at a time [Formula: see text] and looking along the sampled cell's ancestral lineage, we find that the reproduction law is heterogeneous-the expected reproductive output of ancestral cells on the lineage from time 0 to time T continuously increases with time. This 'inspection paradox' is due to sampling bias, that cells with a larger number of offspring are more likely to have one of their descendants sampled by virtue of their prolificity. The bias's strength changes with the random population size and/or the sampling time T. Our main result explicitly characterises the evolution of reproduction rates and sizes along the sampled ancestral lineage as a mixture of Poisson processes, which simplifies in special cases. The ancestral bias helps to explain recently observed variation in mutation rates along lineages of the developing human embryo.

Sleep exerts lasting effects on hematopoietic stem cell function and diversity.

A sleepless night may feel awful in its aftermath, but sleep's revitalizing powers are substantial, perpetuating the idea that convalescent sleep is a consequence-free physiological reset. Although recent studies have shown that catch-up sleep insufficiently neutralizes the negative effects of sleep debt, the mechanisms that control prolonged effects of sleep disruption are not understood. Here, we show that sleep interruption restructures the epigenome of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) and increases their proliferation, thus reducing hematopoietic clonal diversity through accelerated genetic drift. Sleep fragmentation exerts a lasting influence on the HSPC epigenome, skewing commitment toward a myeloid fate and priming cells for exaggerated inflammatory bursts. Combining hematopoietic clonal tracking with mathematical modeling, we infer that sleep preserves clonal diversity by limiting neutral drift. In humans, sleep restriction alters the HSPC epigenome and activates hematopoiesis. These findings show that sleep slows decay of the hematopoietic system by calibrating the hematopoietic epigenome, constraining inflammatory output, and maintaining clonal diversity.

The coalescent tree of a Markov branching process with generalised logistic growth.

We consider a class of density-dependent branching processes which generalises exponential, logistic and Gompertz growth. A population begins with a single individual, grows exponentially initially, and then growth may slow down as the population size moves towards a carrying capacity. At a time while the population is still growing superlinearly, a fixed number of individuals are sampled and their coalescent tree is drawn. Taking the sampling time and carrying capacity simultaneously to infinity, we prove convergence of the coalescent tree to a limiting tree which is in a sense universal over our class of models.

Mapping the long road to cancer.

Every cell in our body accumulates mutations throughout life, and sometimes an unfortunate combination of mutations drives the initiation of cancer. A new study infers extraordinarily detailed timelines of pre-cancerous evolution by sequencing single-cell genomes in patients with blood malignancies-finding that key mutations can arrive decades before diagnosis.

Increased stem cell proliferation in atherosclerosis accelerates clonal hematopoiesis.

Clonal hematopoiesis, a condition in which individual hematopoietic stem cell clones generate a disproportionate fraction of blood leukocytes, correlates with higher risk for cardiovascular disease. The mechanisms behind this association are incompletely understood. Here, we show that hematopoietic stem cell division rates are increased in mice and humans with atherosclerosis. Mathematical analysis demonstrates that increased stem cell proliferation expedites somatic evolution and expansion of clones with driver mutations. The experimentally determined division rate elevation in atherosclerosis patients is sufficient to produce a 3.5-fold increased risk of clonal hematopoiesis by age 70. We confirm the accuracy of our theoretical framework in mouse models of atherosclerosis and sleep fragmentation by showing that expansion of competitively transplanted Tet2-/- cells is accelerated under conditions of chronically elevated hematopoietic activity. Hence, increased hematopoietic stem cell proliferation is an important factor contributing to the association between cardiovascular disease and clonal hematopoiesis.

Achieving tight glycemic control in the operating room: lessons learned from 12 years in the trenches of a paradigm shift in anesthetic care.

Intensive insulin therapy to control perioperative hyperglycemia has become the new standard of care for cardiac surgery patients. Although there are several published protocols for achieving tight glycemic control in the postoperative period, there are no such published protocols or even suggested methods for intraoperative control. At Providence St. Vincent Hospital in Portland, Oregon, we have been using postoperative insulin infusions under study protocol since 1992 and have been using intravenous insulin to control intraoperative glucose levels since 1995. Over the past 12 years of tight intraoperative glycemic control with intravenous insulin, four distinct, equally effective methods of intraoperative insulin administration have evolved at our institution. All four have evolved in the hands of experienced cardiac anesthesiologists. Each of these anesthesiologists was faced with the daily task of individualizing patient therapy with the common goal of eliminating intraoperative hyperglycemia. In this article we will describe each of these four generalized methodologies to give the practicing anesthesiologist a starting point from which they can develop and hone their own technique further.