Scale of unregulated international trade in Australian reptiles and amphibians.

Reptiles and amphibians are popular in the exotic pet trade, where Australian species are valued for their rarity and uniqueness. Despite a near-complete ban on the export of Australian wildlife, smuggling and subsequent international trade frequently occur in an unregulated and unmonitored manner. In 2022, Australia listed over 100 squamates in Appendix III of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) to better monitor this trade. We investigated current trade and assessed the value of this Australian CITES listing using web-scraping methods to monitor the online pet trade in Australian reptiles and amphibians, with additional data from published papers, trade databases, and seizure records. Despite the export ban, we identified 170 endemic herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species in international trade, 33 of which were not recorded previously in the international market, including 6 newly recorded genera. Ninety-two traded species were included in CITES appendices (59 added in 2022), but at least 78 other traded species remained unregulated. Among these, 5 of the 10 traded threatened species were unlisted, and we recommend they be considered for inclusion in CITES Appendix III. We also recommend the listing of all Diplodactylidae genera in Appendix III. Despite this family representing the greatest number of Australian species in trade, only one genus (of 7 traded) was included in the recent CITES amendments. Overall, a large number of Australian reptile and amphibian species are traded internationally and, although we acknowledge the value of Australia's recent CITES listing, we recommend the consideration of other taxa for similar inclusion in CITES.

Escala del mercado internacional no regulado de reptiles y anfibios australianos Resumen Los reptiles y anfibios son populares en el comercio de mascotas exóticas, en el que las especies australianas son valoradas por su rareza y singularidad. A pesar de la prohibición casi total de la exportación de fauna silvestre australiana, el contrabando y el comercio internacional posterior se producen con frecuencia de forma no regulada y no supervisada. En 2022, Australia incluyó más de 100 escamosos en el apéndice III de la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas de Fauna y Flora Silvestres (CITES) para controlar mejor este comercio. Investigamos el comercio actual y evaluamos el valor de esta inclusión en CITES con métodos de raspado web para monitorear el comercio virtual de reptiles y anfibios australianos como mascotas, con datos adicionales de artículos publicados, bases de datos comerciales y registros de incautaciones. A pesar de la prohibición de las exportaciones, identificamos 170 especies endémicas de herpetofauna (reptiles y anfibios) en el comercio internacional, 33 de las cuales no se habían registrado previamente en el mercado internacional, incluidos 6 géneros registrados recientemente. Noventa y dos especies comercializadas se incluyeron en los apéndices de CITES (59 añadidas en 2022), pero al menos otras 78 especies comercializadas permanecieron sin regular. Entre ellas, cinco de las diez especies amenazadas comercializadas no estaban incluidas y recomendamos que se considere su inclusión en el apéndice III de CITES. También recomendamos la inclusión de todos los géneros de Diplodactylidae en el apéndice III. A pesar de que esta familia representa el mayor número de especies australianas en el comercio, sólo un género (de 7 comercializados) fue incluido en las recientes enmiendas de CITES. En general, un gran número de especies de reptiles y anfibios australianos son objeto de comercio internacional y, aunque reconocemos el valor de la reciente inclusión de Australia en CITES, recomendamos que se consideren otros taxones para su similar inclusión.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide.

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.