Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005-2019.

The resurgence and outbreaks of mumps occur frequently in many countries worldwide in recent years, even in countries with high vaccination coverage. In this study, a descriptive and spatiotemporal clustering analysis at the township level was conducted to explore the dynamic spatiotemporal aggregation and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Wuhan. During 2005 and 2019, there were 40 685 cases reported in Wuhan, with an average annual morbidity of 28.11 per 100 000 populations. The morbidity showed a fluctuating tendency, and peaked in 2010 and 2018. Bimodal seasonality was found, with a large peak between May and July, and a mild peak from November to January in the following year. Male students aged 5-9-year-old were the main risk group of mumps infection. Significant global spatial auto-correlation was detected except in 2007, 2009 and 2015. The spatial and temporal scan statistics indicated that the hot-spots mainly located at the western and southern areas of Wuhan with variations almost every year. Our findings could assist the public health authorities to develop and improve targeted health strategies, and allocate health resources rationally.

Identifying low-PM2.5 exposure commuting routes for cyclists through modeling with the random forest algorithm based on low-cost sensor measurements in three Asian cities.

Cyclists can be easily exposed to traffic-related pollutants due to riding on or close to the road during commuting in cities. PM2.5 has been identified as one of the major pollutants emitted by vehicles and associated with cardiopulmonary and respiratory diseases. As routing has been suggested to reduce the exposures for cyclists, in this study, PM2.5 was monitored with low-cost sensors during commuting periods to develop models for identifying low exposure routes in three Asian cities: Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The models for mapping the PM2.5 in the cities were developed by employing the random forest algorithm in a two-stage modeling approach. The land use features to explain spatial variation of PM2.5 were obtained from the open-source land use database, OpenStreetMap. The total length of the monitoring routes ranged from 101.36 to 148.22 km and the average PM2.5 ranged from 13.51 to 15.40 µg/m³ among the cities. The two-stage models had the standard k-fold cross-validation (CV) R2 of 0.93, 0.74, and 0.84 in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul, respectively. To address spatial autocorrelation, a spatial cross-validation approach applying a distance restriction of 100 m between the model training and testing data was employed. The over-optimistic estimates on the predictions were thus prevented, showing model CV-R2 of 0.91, 0.67, and 0.78 respectively in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The comparisons between the shortest-distance and lowest-exposure routes showed that the largest percentage of reduced averaged PM2.5 exposure could reach 32.1% with the distance increases by 37.8%. Given the findings in this study, routing behavior should be encouraged. With the daily commuting trips expanded, the cumulative effect may become significant on the chronic exposures over time. Therefore, a route planning tool for reducing the exposures shall be developed and promoted to the public.

Application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model in forecasting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan, China.

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month (from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, with the largest coefficient of determination (R 2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC (BIC=3.645) value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations (P Box-Ljung (Q)=0.299). The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

Role of meteorological conditions in reported chickenpox cases in Wuhan and Hong Kong, China.

BACKGROUND: Chickenpox is a common contagious disease that remains an important public health issue worldwide. Over 90% of unvaccinated individuals become infected, but infection occurs at different ages in different parts of the world. Many people have been infected by 20 to 30 years of age in China, and adults and pregnant women who become infected often develop severe infection. Furthermore, a mortality rate of 2-3 per 100,000 infected persons has been reported. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent transition of patterns of reported chickenpox cases in two large subtropical climate cities, Wuhan and Hong Kong, China, to aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effects of climatic changes on epidemiology of chickenpox in China. METHODS: We used a time series analysis comprising a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Specifically, the following time series data were analyzed: data of reported chickenpox cases and meteorological data, including the mean temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in Wuhan and Hong Kong from January 2008 to June 2015. RESULTS: The time series data of chickenpox for both Wuhan and Hong Kong have two peaks per year, one in winter and another in spring, indicating a bimodal cycle. To investigate the source of the bimodal cycle of the chickenpox data, we defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q 1, and the 6-month cycle, Q 2, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle and a 6-month cycle, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time-series data. The Q 1 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were positively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of each city. Conversely, the Q 2 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of Wuhan and Hong Kong. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that the mean temperature and rainfall have a significant influence on the incidence of chickenpox, and might be important predictors of chickenpox incidence in Wuhan and Hong Kong.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan, China / 华中科技大学学报（医学）（英德文版）

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008.Application of modem information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control.A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study.Eighty-four-month (from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling.The coefficient of determination (R2),normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models.Subsequently,the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016.The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12,with the largest coefficient of determination (R2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC (BIC=3.645) value.The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations (PBox-Ljung (Q)=0.299).The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval,including a major peak during April to June,and again a light peak for September to November.The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively,which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area.Besides,further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set,and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

Self-reported health problems related to traditional dietary practices in postpartum women from urban, suburban and rural areas of Hubei province, China: the 'zuò yuèzi'.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the prevalence of maternal health problems in the postpartum period and their association with traditional Chinese postpartum diets and behaviours in three selected regions in Hubei province, China. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted in urban, suburban and rural areas. A total of 2100 women who had given birth to full-term single infants in the past two years were enrolled. Their postpartum diet, personal behaviours, and health problems were surveyed by trained interviewers. RESULTS: During the puerperium women consumed plentiful eggs, fish, poultry and meats; however, fruit, vegetable and milk consumption were limited. A high prevalence of health problems potentially related to pregnancy and the puerperium were found. At least one such problem was reported by 59.3% of women. The putative postpartum problems were backaches (29.6%), arthralgia or leg clonus (12.7%), breast problems (19.6%), constipation (18.7%), haemorrhoids (11.7%), dizziness or headaches (14.8%), anaemia (10.0%). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that leafy vegetable intake and frequent recipe change in the puerperium were positively associated with less anal diseases. Bathing or hair washing did not increase the risk of maternal infection as belief would have suggested. However, bathing was a risk factor for backache or arthralgia, and tooth brushing was a risk factor for bleeding gums. Excessive housework was a risk factor for anal diseases and disordered uterine involution. CONCLUSION: Postpartum maternal health problems were prevalent in Hubei province. These were in part associated with postpartum traditional Chinese diets and behaviours.

Time series analysis of reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by a group of enteroviruses, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) and Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). In recent decades, Asian countries have experienced frequent and widespread HFMD outbreaks, with deaths predominantly among children. In several Asian countries, epidemics usually peak in the late spring/early summer, with a second small peak in late autumn/early winter. We investigated the possible underlying association between the seasonality of HFMD epidemics and meteorological variables, which could improve our ability to predict HFMD epidemics. METHODS: We used a time series analysis composed of a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. The time series analysis was applied to three kinds of monthly time series data collected in Wuhan, China, where high-quality surveillance data for HFMD have been collected: (i) reported cases of HFMD, (ii) reported cases of EV-A71 and CVA16 detected in HFMD patients, and (iii) meteorological variables. RESULTS: In the power spectral densities for HFMD and EV-A71, the dominant spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated for the 1-year and 6-month cycles reproduced the bimodal cycles that were clearly observed in the HFMD and EV-A71 data. The peak months on the LSF curves for the HFMD data were consistent with those for the EV-A71 data. The risk of infection was relatively high at 10 °C ≤ t < 15 °C (t, temperature [°C]) and 15 °C ≤ t < 20 °C, and peaked at 20 °C ≤ t < 25 °C. CONCLUSION: In this study, the HFMD infections occurring in Wuhan showed two seasonal peaks, in summer (June) and winter (November or December). The results obtained with a time series analysis suggest that the bimodal seasonal peaks in HFMD epidemics are attributable to EV-A71 epidemics. Our results suggest that controlling the spread of EV-A71 infections when the temperature is approximately 20-25 °C should be considered to prevent HFMD infections in Wuhan, China.

Vaccination coverage and its determinants among migrant children in Guangdong, China.

BACKGROUND: Guangdong province attracted more than 31 million migrants in 2010. But few studies were performed to estimate the complete and age-appropriate immunization coverage and determine risk factors of migrant children. METHODS: 1610 migrant children aged 12-59 months from 70 villages were interviewed in Guangdong. Demographic characteristics, primary caregiver's knowledge and attitude toward immunization, and child's immunization history were obtained. UTD and age-appropriate immunization rates for the following five vaccines and the overall series (1:3:3:3:1 immunization series) were assessed: one dose of BCG, three doses of DTP, OPV and HepB, one dose of MCV. Risk factors for not being UTD for the 1:3:3:3:1 immunization series were explored. RESULTS: For each antigen, the UTD immunization rate was above 71%, but the age-appropriate immunization rates for BCG, HepB, OPV, DPT and MCV were only 47.8%, 45.1%, 47.1%, 46.8% and 37.2%, respectively. The 1st dose was most likely to be delayed within them. For the 1:3:3:3:1 immunization series, the UTD immunization rate and age-appropriate immunization rate were 64.9% and 12.4% respectively. Several factors as below were significantly associated with UTD immunization. The primary caregiver's determinants were their occupation, knowledge and attitude toward immunization. The child's determinants were sex, Hukou, birth place, residential buildings and family income. CONCLUSIONS: Alarmingly low immunization coverage of migrant children should be closely monitored by NIISS. Primary caregiver and child's determinants should be considered when taking measures. Strategies to strengthen active out-reach activities and health education for primary caregivers needed to be developed to improve their immunization coverage.

[Investigation on the risk factors for reported rising of measles incidence during November, 2011 to February, 2012, in some areas of Hubei province].

OBJECTIVE: To identify the risk factors for reported sudden rise of measles incidence in November, 2011, in some areas of Hubei province. METHODS: We analyzed all measles patients reported in the measles surveillance system from November 2011 to February 2012 in two prefectures with highest attack rates and their vaccination history by reviewing vaccination records. We interviewed patients' parents by telephone to obtain the history of visiting health care within 7 to 21 days before onset. We also used case-crossover study to estimate the relative risk (RR) of hospital acquired infection and to compare the exposure to health care between 7-21 days before onset to 37-51 days before onset among measles patients. RESULTS: Totally 140 patients were reported in the two prefectures. Reported measles incidence rates among the population aged <8 m(69/100 000) and 8 m to 17 m (72/100 000) were higher than other age groups (rang from 0 to 5.8 per 100 000). Among the population aged 8 m to 17 m, estimated vaccination coverage was lower than 75%, and it was lower than 90% among those aged 18 m to 3 yrs. During 7-21 days before onset, 58% (29/50) of the patients had an exposure to health care settings, compared to 14% (7/50) of patients during 37 to 51 days before onset (MH RR = 5.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.1-14.0). CONCLUSION: Under the condition of measles vaccination coverage lower than 95%, iatrogenic infection was a risk factor for measles in Hubei.

Recurrence of Japanese encephalitis epidemic in Wuhan, China, 2009-2010.

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis (JE) was once epidemic in most areas of China, including Wuhan, a city located in the central part of China. The incidence of JE dramatically decreased due to nationwide immunization with the live attenuated JE virus (JEV) vaccine, and no JE cases were reported during 2005-2008 in Wuhan. In 2009 and 2010, 31 JE cases reoccurred in this area. In this study, we investigated the causes of JE recurrence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: All JE cases were laboratory-confirmed by detecting the JEV-specific IgM antibody with an IgM-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). All patients were children between 2 months and 9 years of age with a median age of 2 years. Of the 31 cases, 9 had received one or two doses of the JEV vaccine, 11 had not been immunized previously with the JEV vaccine, and 11 had an unclear immunization history. Through reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis, two new strains of JEV were isolated from Culex tritaeniorhynchus and identified as genotype 1 JEV, rather than genotype 3, which circulated in this area previously. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine failure or missed vaccination may have caused JE recurrence. Local centers for disease control and prevention need to improve immunization coverage, and the efficacy of the JE vaccine needs to be reevaluated in a population at risk for disease.

Implication of reported viral hepatitis incidence rate change in Hubei Province, China, between 2004-2010.

This study examined the change of reported incidence rate for viral hepatitis in Hubei province, China, between 2004 to 2010 to provide scientific evidence for viral hepatitis control. Reported viral hepatitis infection cases were queried from Centre for Disease Control of Hubei Province, China. The incidence of viral hepatitis A decreased steadily across the study period. Viral hepatitis B composed 85% of the viral hepatitis cases. When reported incidence rates for chronic hepatitis B increased, the rates of acute and unclassified cases dropped from 2005 to 2010. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate for males was around 1.5-2 times higher than for females. The average annual percentage change of reported viral hepatitis B incidence rates was 4%. The same index for viral hepatitis C was 28%. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate of people under 20 years old declined over the period. This decrease was mainly attributed to the recent implementation of vaccination plan. Reported incidence rate of viral hepatitis E also rose in those years. Having a better understanding on reported incidence rates of the present surveillance system is important for developing strategies for further prevention of viral hepatitis. In addition, the data showed that a surveillance system that differentiates new and former infected cases will be more effective in providing evidence for disease control.

[Analysis of sequence and genotype of E gene of the newly isolated Japanese encephalitis virus strains in Wuhan, Hubei Province].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the molecular characteristics of the newly isolated two Japanese encephalitis virus strains (JEV) in Wuhan. METHODS: The mosquitoes were collected in Wuhan from April to October in 2009. The envelope (E) protein gene of JEV was detected using RT-PCR and sequenced. Sequence comparisons and phylogenetic analysis were conducted using DNAstar and MegAlign. RESULTS: Two Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains (WHJX09-9, WHJX09-10) were isolated from Culex tritaeniorhynchus among 16 mosquito pools and identified as genotype I. The result showed that the homology of the two strains was 98. 9% in nucleotides and 100% in deduced amines. The comparison between the new genotype 1 JEV strains and live attenuated vaccine strain SA14-14-2 in E gene showed that the homology of nucleotide sequence was 87.4% and 87.9%, the homology of amino acid was 96.9% (total 15 amino acid were different) in E gene. The mutation sites of amino acid distributed among three different coding domain, but no antigen binding site and neurotoxin-involved site of amino acid were changed. CONCLUSION: Wuhan had appeared a new genotype of JEV which was different from the former strain isolated in Wuhan, the new JEV strains still had neurotoxicity but had high homology with the vaccine strains adopted in Wuhan. The vaccine could still be adopted to prevent Japanese encephalitis if steps were take to eradicate mosquitos at the same time. laboratory surveillance were also an important task to build an early-warning mechanism against JEV.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

[Investigation on the distribution of avian influenza virus in external environment and the level of H5N1 antibody in poultry-exposed population in Wuhan].

OBJECTIVE: To survey the distribution of influenza A subtypes in external environment and investigate the infectious status of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry-exposed population in Wuhan. METHODS: Seventy-eight external environmental samples (water, cage surface and fecal samples) were collected from 3 habitats of wild migratory birds and 5 urban live-poultry markets in 2010. In 13 avian influenza monitoring points, 249 serum samples were collected from people living around habitats of wild migratory birds or working in live poultry markets. Real-time RT-PCR method was adopted to detect influenza A virus from external environmental samples; and multiple RT-PCR method and specific H3, H5, H7 and H9 primers were then applied to analyze the subtypes of the positive samples. The levels of H5N1 antibody in poultry-exposed population were tested by horse hemagglutination inhibition test and two avian influenza inactivated antigens: A/Hubei/1/10 and A/Anhui/1/05. RESULTS: Of the 50 external environmental samples collected from live poultry markets, 17 samples were determined to be influenza A virus positive (positive rate 34.0%), including specific subtypes as follows: 4 samples of H5 single-positive subtype, 3 samples of H9 single-positive subtype, 4 samples of H3 and H5 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H3 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H5 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H3, H5 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, but no H7 positive subtype was found. The 28 external environmental samples collected from habitats of wild migratory birds were all influenza A virus negative. Considering different types of external environmental samples, the influenza A virus positive rates in water, cage surface and fecal samples were 37.5% (6/16), 16.7% (5/30) and 18.8% (6/32), respectively. There were total 100 samples of serum whose A/Hubei/1/10 antigen inhibiting titers ≥ 40, accounting for 40.2%; while 36 samples of serum (14.5%) whose A/Anhui/1/05 antigen inhibiting titers ≥ 40 were found. The difference had statistical significance (χ(2) = 41.433, P < 0.05). Among the 249 serum samples collected from poultry-exposed population, 5 samples were H5N1 antibody positive against A/Hubei/1/10 antigen (inhibition titer ≥ 160), which came from 4 different live poultry markets, however, no positive serum sample against A/Anhui/1/05 antigen was found. CONCLUSION: Multiple subtypes of avian influenza virus simultaneously prevailed in Wuhan urban poultry markets. Moreover, results from the distribution of avian influenza virus in external environment were consistent with the level of H5N1 antibody in poultry-exposed population.

The effect of health and nutrition education intervention on women's postpartum beliefs and practices: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: 'Sitting month' is the Chinese tradition for postpartum customs. Available studies indicate that some of the traditional postpartum practices are potentially harmful for women's health. However, no intervention study aiming at postpartum practices has been performed. In this paper we evaluated the effect of a health and nutrition education intervention, which focused on improving postpartum dietary quality and optimal health behaviors. METHODS: The study design was a randomized controlled trial conducted in both urban and rural area of Hubei between August 2003 and June 2004. A total of 302 women who attended the antenatal clinic during the third trimester with an uncomplicated pregnancy were recruited. Women randomized to the education intervention group in both urban and rural area received two two-hour prenatal education sessions and four postpartum counseling visits. Control group women received usual health care during pregnancy and postpartum period. Women were followed up until 42 days postpartum. Outcome measures were nutrition and health knowledge, dietary behavior, health behavior and health problems during the postpartum period. RESULTS: Women in the intervention groups exhibited significantly greater improvement in overall dietary behaviors such as consumption of fruits, vegetables, soybean and soybean products as well as nutrition and health knowledge than those in the control groups. Significantly more women in the intervention groups give up the traditional behavior taboos. The incidence of constipation, leg cramp or joint pain and prolonged lochia rubra was significantly lower in the intervention groups as compared with the control groups. CONCLUSION: The study shows that health and nutrition education intervention enable the women take away some of the unhealthy traditional postpartum practices and decrease the prevalence of postpartum health problems. The intervention has potential for adaptation and development to large-scale implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: klACTRN12607000549426.

Postpartum practices of puerperal women and their influencing factors in three regions of Hubei, China.

BACKGROUND: 'Sitting month' is a Chinese tradition for women's postpartum custom. The present study aims to explore the postpartum dietary and health practices of puerperal women and identify their influential factors in three selected regions of Hubei, China. METHODS: A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted in the selected urban, suburban and rural areas in the province of Hubei from 1 March to 30 May 2003. A total of 2100 women who had given birth to full-term singleton infants in the past two years were selected as the participants. Data regarding postpartum practices and potentially related factors were collected through questionnaire by trained investigators. RESULTS: During the puerperium, 18% of the participants never ate vegetables, 78.8% never ate fruit and 75.7% never drank milk. Behaviour taboos such as no bathing, no hair washing or teeth brushing were still popular among the participants. About half of the women didn't get out of the bed two days after giving birth. The average time they stayed in bed during this period was 18.0 h. One third of them didn't have any outdoor activities in that time periods. The educational background of both women and their spouses, location of their residence, family income, postnatal visit, nutrition and health care educational courses were found to be the influencing factors of women's postpartum practices. CONCLUSION: Traditional postpartum dietary and health behaviours were still popular among women in Hubei. Identifying the factors associated with traditional postpartum practices is critical to develop better targeting health education programs. Updated Information regarding postpartum dietary and health practices should be disseminated to women.