Sequence clustering confounds AlphaFold2.

Though typically associated with a single folded state, some globular proteins remodel their secondary and/or tertiary structures in response to cellular stimuli. AlphaFold21 (AF2) readily generates one dominant protein structure for these fold-switching (a.k.a. metamorphic) proteins2, but it often fails to predict their alternative experimentally observed structures3,4. Wayment-Steele, et al. steered AF2 to predict alternative structures of a few metamorphic proteins using a method they call AF-cluster5. However, their Paper lacks some essential controls needed to assess AF-cluster's reliability. We find that these controls show AF-cluster to be a poor predictor of metamorphic proteins. First, closer examination of the Paper's results reveals that random sequence sampling outperforms sequence clustering, challenging the claim that AF-cluster works by "deconvolving conflicting sets of couplings." Further, we observe that AF-cluster mistakes some single-folding KaiB homologs for fold switchers, a critical flaw bound to mislead users. Finally, proper error analysis reveals that AF-cluster predicts many correct structures with low confidence and some experimentally unobserved conformations with confidences similar to experimentally observed ones. For these reasons, we suggest using ColabFold6-based random sequence sampling7-augmented by other predictive approaches-as a more accurate and less computationally intense alternative to AF-cluster.

ColabFold predicts alternative protein structures from single sequences, coevolution unnecessary for AF-cluster.

Though typically associated with a single folded state, globular proteins are dynamic and often assume alternative or transient structures important for their functions1,2. Wayment-Steele, et al. steered ColabFold3 to predict alternative structures of several proteins using a method they call AF-cluster4. They propose that AF-cluster "enables ColabFold to sample alternate states of known metamorphic proteins with high confidence" by first clustering multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) in a way that "deconvolves" coevolutionary information specific to different conformations and then using these clusters as input for ColabFold. Contrary to this Coevolution Assumption, clustered MSAs are not needed to make these predictions. Rather, these alternative structures can be predicted from single sequences and/or sequence similarity, indicating that coevolutionary information is unnecessary for predictive success and may not be used at all. These results suggest that AF-cluster's predictive scope is likely limited to sequences with distinct-yet-homologous structures within ColabFold's training set.

SSDraw: Software for generating comparative protein secondary structure diagrams.

The program SSDraw generates publication-quality protein secondary structure diagrams from three-dimensional protein structures. To depict relationships between secondary structure and other protein features, diagrams can be colored by conservation score, B-factor, or custom scoring. Diagrams of homologous proteins can be registered according to an input multiple sequence alignment. Linear visualization allows the user to stack registered diagrams, facilitating comparison of secondary structure and other properties among homologous proteins. SSDraw can be used to compare secondary structures of homologous proteins with both conserved and divergent folds. It can also generate one secondary structure diagram from an input protein structure of interest. The source code can be downloaded (https://github.com/ncbi/SSDraw) and run locally for rapid structure generation, while a Google Colab notebook allows easy use.

SSDraw: software for generating comparative protein secondary structure diagrams.

The program SSDraw generates publication-quality protein secondary structure diagrams from three-dimensional protein structures. To depict relationships between secondary structure and other protein features, diagrams can be colored by conservation score, B-factor, or custom scoring. Diagrams of homologous proteins can be registered according to an input multiple sequence alignment. Linear visualization allows the user to stack registered diagrams, facilitating comparison of secondary structure and other properties among homologous proteins. SSDraw can be used to compare secondary structures of homologous proteins with both conserved and divergent folds. It can also generate one secondary structure diagram from an input protein structure of interest. The source code can be downloaded (https://github.com/ethanchen1301/SSDraw) and run locally for rapid structure generation, while a Google Colab notebook allows easy use.

AlphaFold2 has more to learn about protein energy landscapes.

Recent work suggests that AlphaFold2 (AF2)-a deep learning-based model that can accurately infer protein structure from sequence-may discern important features of folded protein energy landscapes, defined by the diversity and frequency of different conformations in the folded state. Here, we test the limits of its predictive power on fold-switching proteins, which assume two structures with regions of distinct secondary and/or tertiary structure. Using several implementations of AF2, including two published enhanced sampling approaches, we generated >280,000 models of 93 fold-switching proteins whose experimentally determined conformations were likely in AF2's training set. Combining all models, AF2 predicted fold switching with a modest success rate of ~25%, indicating that it does not readily sample both experimentally characterized conformations of most fold switchers. Further, AF2's confidence metrics selected against models consistent with experimentally determined fold-switching conformations in favor of inconsistent models. Accordingly, these confidence metrics-though suggested to evaluate protein energetics reliably-did not discriminate between low and high energy states of fold-switching proteins. We then evaluated AF2's performance on seven fold-switching proteins outside of its training set, generating >159,000 models in total. Fold switching was accurately predicted in one of seven targets with moderate confidence. Further, AF2 demonstrated no ability to predict alternative conformations of two newly discovered targets without homologs in the set of 93 fold switchers. These results indicate that AF2 has more to learn about the underlying energetics of protein ensembles and highlight the need for further developments of methods that readily predict multiple protein conformations.