Excess Fatal Overdoses in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Geography and Substance Type: March 2020-August 2021.

Objectives. To assess heterogeneity in pandemic-period excess fatal overdoses in the United States, by location (state, county) and substance type. Methods. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to estimate counterfactual death counts in the scenario that no pandemic had occurred. Such estimates were subtracted from actual death counts to assess the magnitude of pandemic-period excess mortality between March 2020 and August 2021. Results. Nationwide, we estimated 25 668 (95% prediction interval [PI] = 2811, 48 524) excess overdose deaths. Specifically, 17 of 47 states and 197 of 592 counties analyzed had statistically significant excess overdose-related mortality. West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and New Mexico had the highest rates (20-37 per 100 000). Nationally, there were 5.7 (95% PI = 1.0, 10.4), 3.1 (95% PI = 2.1, 4.2), and 1.4 (95% PI = 0.5, 2.4) excess deaths per 100 000 involving synthetic opioids, psychostimulants, and alcohol, respectively. Conclusions. The steep increase in overdose-related mortality affected primarily the southern and western United States. We identified synthetic opioids and psychostimulants as the main contributors. Public Health Implications. Characterizing overdose-related excess mortality across locations and substance types is critical for optimal allocation of public health resources. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):599-609. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307618).

Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths.

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Association between social vulnerability and place of death during the first 2 years of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

We investigated the relationship between individual-level social vulnerability and place of death during the infectious disease emergency of the COVID-19 pandemic in Massachusetts. Our research represents a unique contribution by matching individual-level death certificates with COVID-19 test data to analyse differences in distributions of place of death.

Occupational Sitting Time, Leisure Physical Activity, and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

Importance: For the first time, the 2020 World Health Organization guidelines on physical activity recommended reducing sedentary behaviors owing to their health consequences. Less is known on the specific association of prolonged occupational sitting with health, especially in the context of low physical activity engagement. Objective: To quantify health risks associated with prolonged occupational sitting and to determine whether there is a certain threshold of physical activity that may attenuate it. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants in a health surveillance program in Taiwan who were followed-up between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sitting, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) habits, lifestyle, and metabolic parameters were collected. Data analysis was performed in December 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with 3 occupational sitting volumes (mostly sitting, alternating sitting and nonsitting, and mostly nonsitting) were analyzed applying multivariable Cox regression models to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for all participants and by subgroups, including 5 LTPA levels and a personal activity intelligence (PAI)-oriented metric. Deaths occurring within the initial 2 years of follow-up were excluded to prevent reverse causality. Results: The total cohort included 481 688 participants (mean [SD] age, 39.3 [12.8] years; 256 077 women [53.2%]). The study recorded 26 257 deaths during a mean (SD) follow-up period of 12.85 (5.67) years. After adjusting for sex, age, education, smoking, drinking, and body mass index, individuals who mostly sat at work had a 16% higher all-cause mortality risk (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.11-1.20) and a 34% increased mortality risk from CVD (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.22-1.46) compared with those who were mostly nonsitting at work. Individuals alternating sitting and nonsitting at work did not experience increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with individuals mostly nonsitting at work (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.97-1.05). For individuals mostly sitting at work and engaging in low (15-29 minutes per day) or no (<15 minutes per day) LTPA, an increase in LTPA by 15 and 30 minutes per day, respectively, was associated with a reduction in mortality to a level similar to that of inactive individuals who mostly do not sit at work. In addition, individuals with a PAI score exceeding 100 experienced a notable reduction in the elevated mortality risk associated with prolonged occupational sitting. Conclusions and Relevance: As part of modern lifestyles, prolonged occupational sitting is considered normal and has not received due attention, even though its deleterious effect on health outcomes has been demonstrated. In this study, alternating between sitting and nonsitting at work, as well as an extra 15 to 30 minutes per day of LTPA or achieving a PAI score greater than 100, attenuated the harms of prolonged occupational sitting. Emphasizing the associated harms and suggesting workplace system changes may help society to denormalize this common behavior, similar to the process of denormalizing smoking.

Examining Excess Mortality Among Critical Workers in Minnesota During 2020-2021: An Occupational Analysis.

Objectives. To understand the occupational risk associated with COVID-19 among civilian critical workers (aged 16-65 years) in Minnesota. Methods. We estimated excess mortality in 2020 to 2021 for critical occupations in different racial groups and vaccine rollout phases using death certificates and occupational employment rates for 2017 to 2021. Results. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was higher for workers in critical occupations than for noncritical workers. Some critical occupations, such as transportation and logistics, construction, and food service, experienced higher excess mortality than did other critical occupations, such as health care, K-12 school staff, and agriculture. In almost all occupations investigated, workers of color experienced higher excess mortality than did White workers. Excess mortality in 2021 was greater than in 2020 across groups: occupations, vaccine eligibility tiers, and race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Although workers in critical occupations experienced greater excess mortality than did others, excess mortality among critical workers varied substantially by occupation and race. Public Health Implications. Analysis of mortality across occupations can be used to identify vulnerable populations, prioritize protective interventions for them, and develop targeted worker safety protocols to promote equitable health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(11):1219-1222. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307395).

Effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on the HIV care continuum in Southwestern Uganda: A time series analysis.

INTRODUCTION: In Uganda, COVID-19 lockdown policies curbed the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but their effect on HIV care is poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: We examined the effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies on ART initiation, missed visits, and viral suppression in Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a time series analysis using data from a dynamic cohort of persons with HIV enrolled between March 2017 and September 2021 at HIV clinics in Masaka and Mbarara Regional Referral Hospitals in Southwestern Uganda. Poisson and fractional probit regression were used to predict expected monthly antiretroviral therapy initiations, missed visits, and viral suppression based on pre-lockdown trends. Observed and expected trends were compared across three policy periods: April 2020-September 2021 (overall), April-May 2020 (1st lockdown), and June-August 2021 (2nd lockdown). RESULTS: We enrolled 7071 Persons living with HIV (PWH) (nMasaka = 4150; nMbarara = 2921). Average ART duration was 34 and 30 months in Masaka and Mbarara, respectively. During the 18-month post-lockdown period, monthly ART initiations were lower than expected in both Masaka (51 versus 63 visits; a decrease of 12 [95% CI: -2, 31] visits) and Mbarara (42 versus 55 visits; a decrase of 13 [95% CI: 0, 27] visits). Proportion of missed visits was moderately higher than expected post-lockdown in Masaka (10% versus 7%; 4% [95% CI: 1%, 7%] absolute increase), but not in Mbarara (13% versus 13%; 0% [95% CI: -4%, 6%] absolute decrease). Viral suppression rates were moderate-to-high in Masaka (64.7%) and Mbarara (92.5%) pre-lockdown and remained steady throughout the post-lockdown period. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda was associated with reductions in ART initiation, with minimal effects on retention and viral suppression, indicating a resilient HIV care system.

Excess Mortality With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias as an Underlying or Contributing Cause During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US.

Importance: Adults with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deaths associated with ADRD increased substantially in pandemic year 1. It is unclear whether mortality associated with ADRD declined when better prevention strategies, testing, and vaccines became widely available in year 2. Objective: To compare pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD between year 1 and year 2 overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and place of death. Design, Setting, and Participants: This time series analysis used all death certificates of US decedents 65 years and older with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death from January 2014 through February 2022. Exposure: COVID-19 pandemic era. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD were defined as the difference between deaths with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause observed from March 2020 to February 2021 (year 1) and March 2021 to February 2022 (year 2) compared with expected deaths during this period. Expected deaths were estimated using data from January 2014 to February 2020 fitted with autoregressive integrated moving average models. Results: Overall, 2 334 101 death certificates were analyzed. A total of 94 688 (95% prediction interval [PI], 84 192-104 890) pandemic-era excess deaths with ADRD were estimated in year 1 and 21 586 (95% PI, 10 631-32 450) in year 2. Declines in ADRD-related deaths in year 2 were substantial for every age, sex, and racial and ethnic group evaluated. Pandemic-era ADRD-related excess deaths declined among nursing home/long-term care residents (from 34 259 [95% PI, 25 819-42 677] in year 1 to -22 050 [95% PI, -30 765 to -13 273] in year 2), but excess deaths at home remained high (from 34 487 [95% PI, 32 815-36 142] in year 1 to 28 804 [95% PI, 27 067-30 571] in year 2). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that large increases in mortality with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death occurred in COVID-19 pandemic year 1 but were largely mitigated in pandemic year 2. The most pronounced declines were observed for deaths in nursing home/long-term care settings. Conversely, excess deaths at home and in medical facilities remained high in year 2.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.

Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

Association of socio-demographic characteristics with hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in Bangladesh.

Hypertension has been rapidly growing in Bangladesh. However, there has been limited analysis of differences in the hypertension cascade across socio-demographic groups. This study was a secondary analysis of the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Four dichotomous outcome variables - hypertension prevalence, awareness among those with hypertension, treatment among those aware, and control among those treated - were analyzed. The variation of each outcome was assessed across socio-demographic factors. The association between socio-demographic characteristics and outcomes was analyzed using logistic regression. Less than half of the hypertensive individuals were aware of their hypertension (42.5%), and awareness was higher among those who were older, female, of higher household wealth, and living in urban areas. Among those aware, most were receiving treatment (87.4%), and this proportion was higher in older individuals (89.2% among 65 + , 70.4% among 18-24; p < 0.001). One-third of those treated (33.8%) had their blood pressure controlled, and this was higher among younger and more educated individuals. In multivariable models stratified by rural/urban community, most of the aforementioned trends remained with additional differences between communities. Notably, the association of higher education level with treatment odds differed in rural and urban communities (OR 0.34 [95%CI 0.16, 0.75] in rural; OR 2.83 [95%CI 1.04, 7.73] in urban). Efforts to improve hypertension awareness among individuals who are younger, male, of lower household wealth, and in rural areas are required to address disparities in care. Socio-demographic variations in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control must be considered to design targeted interventions for each step of the cascade.

Counterpoint: Preprints and the Future of Scientific Publishing-In Favor of Relevance.

Peer-reviewed journals provide an invaluable but inadequate vehicle for scientific communication. Preprints are now an essential complement to peer-reviewed publications. Eschewing preprints will slow scientific progress and reduce the public health impact of epidemiologic research. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted long-standing limitations of the peer-review process. Preprint servers, such as bioRxiv and medRxiv, served as crucial venues to rapidly disseminate research and provide detailed backup to sound-bite science that is often communicated through the popular press or social media. The major criticisms of preprints arise from an unjustified optimism about peer review. Peer review provides highly imperfect sorting and curation of research and only modest improvements in research conduct or presentation for most individual papers. The advantages of peer review come at the expense of months to years of delay in sharing research methods or results. For time-sensitive evidence, these delays can lead to important missteps and ill-advised policies. Even with research that is not intrinsically urgent, preprints expedite debate, expand engagement, and accelerate progress. The risk that poor-quality papers will have undue influence because they are posted on a preprint server is low. If epidemiology aims to deliver evidence relevant for public health, we need to embrace strategic uses of preprint servers.

Quality of life for men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer participating in an aerobic and resistance exercise pilot intervention.

BACKGROUND: Following a prostate cancer diagnosis, disease and treatment-related symptoms may result in diminished quality of life (QoL). Whether exercise improves QoL in men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is not fully understood. METHODS: We conducted a 3-arm pilot randomized controlled trial to assess the feasibility, acceptability, safety, and efficacy of a 12-week remotely monitored exercise program among men with mCRPC. Here we report qualitative changes in QoL, consistent with the guidelines for pilot trials. Men were randomized to control, aerobic exercise, or resistance exercise. Exercise prescriptions were based on baseline cardiorespiratory and strength assessments. QoL outcomes were evaluated using self-reported questionnaires (e.g., QLQ-C30, PROMIS Fatigue, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), EPIC-26) collected at baseline and 12 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 25 men were randomized (10 control, 8 aerobic, 7 resistance). Men were predominately white (76%) with a median age of 71 years (range: 51-84) and 10.5 years (range: 0.9-26.3) post prostate cancer diagnosis. The men reported poor sleep quality and high levels of fatigue at enrollment. Other baseline QoL metrics were relatively high. Compared to the controls at 12 weeks, the resistance arm reported some improvements in social function and urinary irritative/obstruction symptoms while the aerobic arm reported some improvements in social function and urinary incontinence, yet worsening nausea/vomiting. Compared to the resistance arm, the aerobic arm reported worse urinary irritative/obstruction symptoms and self-rated QoL, yet some improvements in emotional function, insomnia, and diarrhea. CONCLUSIONS: The 3-month exercise intervention pilot appeared to have modest effects on QoL among mCRPC survivors on ADT. Given the feasibility, acceptability, and safety demonstrated in prior analyses, evaluation of the effect of the intervention on QoL in a larger sample and for extended duration may still be warranted.

COVID-19 mortality and excess mortality among working-age residents in California, USA, by occupational sector: a longitudinal cohort analysis of mortality surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, workers in essential sectors had higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than those in non-essential sectors. It is unknown whether disparities in pandemic-related mortality across occupational sectors have continued to occur during the periods of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine availability. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, we obtained data from the California Department of Public Health on all deaths occurring in the state of California, USA, from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. We restricted our analysis to residents of California who were aged 18-65 years at time of death and died of natural causes. We classified the occupational sector into nine essential sectors; non-essential; or unemployed or without an occupation provided on the death certificate. We calculated the number of COVID-19 deaths in total and per capita that occurred in each occupational sector. Separately, using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we estimated total, per-capita, and relative excess natural-cause mortality by week between March 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2021, stratifying by occupational sector. We additionally stratified analyses of occupational risk into counties with high versus low vaccine uptake, categorising high-uptake regions as counties where at least 50% of the population were fully vaccinated according to US guidelines by Aug 1, 2021. FINDINGS: From March 1, 2020, to Nov 30, 2021, 24 799 COVID-19 deaths were reported in residents of California aged 18-65 years and an estimated 28 751 (95% prediction interval 27 853-29 653) excess deaths. People working in essential sectors were associated with higher COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths than were those working in non-essential sectors, with the highest per-capita COVID-19 mortality in the agriculture (131·8 per 100 000 people), transportation or logistics (107·1 per 100 000), manufacturing (103·3 per 100 000), facilities (101·1 per 100 000), and emergency (87·8 per 100 000) sectors. Disparities were wider during periods of increased infections, including during the Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021, surge in infections, which was driven by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) and occurred during vaccine uptake. During the June 27 to Nov 27, 2021 surge, emergency workers had higher COVID-19 mortality (113·7 per 100 000) than workers from any other sector. Workers in essential sectors had the highest COVID-19 mortality in counties with low vaccination uptake, a difference that was more pronounced during the period of the delta infection surge during Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Workers in essential sectors have continued to bear the brunt of high COVID-19 and excess mortality throughout the pandemic, particularly in the agriculture, emergency, manufacturing, facilities, and transportation or logistics sectors. This high death toll has continued during periods of vaccine availability and the delta surge. In an ongoing pandemic without widespread vaccine coverage and with anticipated threats of new variants, the USA must actively adopt policies to more adequately protect workers in essential sectors. FUNDING: US National Institute on Aging, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Excess Mortality in California by Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding educational patterns in excess mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may help to identify strategies to reduce disparities. It is unclear whether educational inequalities in COVID-19 mortality have persisted throughout the pandemic, spanned the full range of educational attainment, or varied by other demographic indicators of COVID-19 risks, such as age or occupation. METHODS: This study analyzed individual-level California Department of Public Health data on deaths occurring between January 2016 and February 2021 among individuals aged ≥25 years (1,502,202 deaths). Authors applied ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models to subgroups defined by the highest level of education and other demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, U.S. nativity, occupational sector, and urbanicity). Authors estimated excess deaths (the number of observed deaths minus the number of deaths expected to occur under the counterfactual of no pandemic) and excess deaths per 100,000 individuals. RESULTS: Educational inequalities in excess mortality emerged early in the pandemic and persisted throughout the first year. The greatest per-capita excess occurred among people without high-school diplomas (533 excess deaths/100,000), followed by those with a high-school diploma but no college (466/100,000), some college (156/100,000), and bachelor's degrees (120/100,000), and smallest among people with graduate/professional degrees (101/100,000). Educational inequalities occurred within every subgroup examined. For example, per-capita excess mortality among Latinos with no college experience was 3.7 times higher than among Latinos with at least some college experience. CONCLUSIONS: Pervasive educational inequalities in excess mortality during the pandemic suggest multiple potential intervention points to reduce disparities.

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Factors Associated With Mortality Among Homeless Older Adults in California: The HOPE HOME Study.

Importance: The population of homeless older adults is growing and experiences premature mortality. Little is known about factors associated with mortality among homeless older adults. Objective: To identify the prevalence and factors associated with mortality in a cohort of homeless adults 50 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prospective cohort study (Health Outcomes in People Experiencing Homelessness in Older Middle Age [HOPE HOME]), 450 adults 50 years and older who were homeless at baseline were recruited via venue-based sampling in Oakland, California. Enrollment occurred in 2 phases, from July 2013 to June 2014 and from August 2017 to July 2018, and participants were interviewed at 6-month intervals. Exposures: Baseline and time-varying characteristics, including sociodemographic factors, social support, housing status, incarceration history, chronic medical conditions, substance use, and mental health problems. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality through December 31, 2021, based on state and local vital records information from contacts and death certificates. All-cause mortality rates were compared with those in the general population from 2014 to 2019 using age-specific standardized mortality ratios with 95% CIs. Results: Of the 450 included participants, median (IQR) age at baseline was 58.1 (54.5-61.6) years, 107 (24%) were women, and 360 (80%) were Black. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 55 (38-93) months, 117 (26%) participants died. Median (IQR) age at death was 64.6 (60.3-67.5) years. In multivariable analyses, characteristics associated with mortality included a first episode of homelessness at 50 years and older (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.62; 95% CI, 1.13-2.32), homelessness (aHR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.23-2.68) or institutionalization (aHR, 6.36; 95% CI, 3.42-11.82) at any follow-up compared with being housed, fair or poor self-rated health (aHR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.13-2.40), and diabetes (aHR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.06-2.26). Demographic characteristics, substance use problems, and mental health problems were not independently associated. All-cause standardized mortality was 3.5 times higher (95% CI, 2.5-4.4) compared with adults in Oakland. The most common causes of death were heart disease (n = 17 [14.5%]), cancer (n = 17 [14.5%]), and drug overdose (n = 14 [12.0%]). Conclusions and Relevance: The cohort study found that premature mortality was common among homeless older adults and associated factors included late-life homelessness and ongoing homelessness. There is an urgent need for policy approaches to prevent and end homelessness among older adults in the US.

Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.

Outdoor Activities Associated with Lower Odds of SARS-CoV-2 Acquisition: A Case-Control Study.

Access to recreational physical activities, particularly in outdoor spaces, has been a crucial outlet for physical and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need to understand how conducting these activities modulates the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this case-control study of unvaccinated individuals conducted in San Francisco, California, the odds of testing positive to SARS-CoV-2 were lower for those who conducted physical activity in outdoor locations (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05, 0.40) in the two weeks prior to testing than for those who conducted no activity or indoor physical activity only. Individuals who visited outdoor parks, beaches, or playgrounds also had lower odds of testing positive to SARS-CoV-2 (aOR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.68) as compared with those who did not visit outdoor parks, beaches, or playgrounds. These findings, albeit in an unvaccinated population, offer observational data to support pre-existing ecological studies that suggest that activity in outdoor spaces lowers COVID-19 risk.

Occupation and Educational Attainment Characteristics Associated With COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in California.

Importance: Racial and ethnic inequities in COVID-19 mortality may be driven by occupation and education, but limited evidence has assessed these mechanisms. Objective: To estimate whether occupational characteristics or educational attainment explained the associations between race and ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study of Californians aged 18 to 65 years linked COVID-19 deaths to population estimates within strata defined by race and ethnicity, gender, age, nativity in the US, region of residence, education, and occupation. Analysis was conducted from September 2020 to February 2022. Exposures: Education and occupational characteristics associated with COVID-19 exposure (essential sector, telework option, wages). Main Outcomes and Measures: All confirmed COVID-19 deaths in California through February 12, 2021. The study estimated what COVID-19 mortality would have been if each racial and ethnic group had (1) the COVID-19 mortality risk associated with the education and occupation distribution of White people and (2) the COVID-19 mortality risk associated with the lowest-risk educational and occupational positions. Results: Of 25 235 092 participants (mean [SD] age, 40 [14] years; 12 730 395 [50%] men), 14 783 died of COVID-19, 8 125 565 (32%) had a Bachelor's degree or higher, 13 345 829 (53%) worked in essential sectors, 11 783 017 (47%) could not telework, and 12 812 095 (51%) had annual wages under $51 700. COVID-19 mortality ranged from 15 deaths per 100 000 for White women and Asian women to 139 deaths per 100 000 for Latinx men. Accounting for differences in age, nativity, and region of residence, if all races and ethnicities had the COVID-19 mortality associated with the occupational characteristics of White people (sector, telework, wages), COVID-19 mortality would be reduced by 10% (95% CI, 6% to 14%) for Latinx men, but increased by 5% (95% CI, -8% to 17%) for Black men. If all working-age Californians had the COVID-19 mortality associated with the lowest-risk educational and occupational position (Bachelor's degree, nonessential, telework, and highest wage quintile), there would have been 43% fewer COVID-19 deaths among working-age adults (8441 fewer deaths; 95% CI, 32%-54%), with the largest absolute risk reductions for Latinx men (3755 deaths averted; 95% CI, 3304-4255 deaths) and Latinx women (2329 deaths averted; 95% CI, 2038-2621 deaths). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study of working-age California adults, occupational disadvantage was associated with excess COVID-19 mortality for Latinx men. For all racial and ethnic groups, excess risk associated with low-education, essential, on-site, and low-wage jobs accounted for a substantial fraction of COVID-19 mortality.

Quality of Life of Prostate Cancer Survivors Participating in a Remotely Delivered Web-Based Behavioral Intervention Pilot Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Following a prostate cancer (PC) diagnosis, treatment-related symptoms may result in diminished quality of life (QoL). Improved diet and increased exercise may improve QoL in men with PC. METHODS: We conducted a 4-arm pilot randomized trial to assess feasibility and acceptability of a 3-month web-based diet and exercise intervention, among men (>18 years of age) with PC (reported elsewhere). The purpose of this study is to describe the change in QoL measured by surveys (eg, QLQ-C30, PROMIS Fatigue) at enrollment and following the intervention. Men were randomized 1:1:1:1 to increasing levels of web-based behavioral support: Level 1: website; Level 2: Level 1 plus personalized diet and exercise prescription; Level 3: Levels 1-2 plus Fitbit and text messages; Level 4: Levels 1-3 plus 2 30-minute coaching calls. T-tests were used to compare pre-post change in mean QoL scores between each Level and Level 1. RESULTS: Two hundred and two men consented and were randomized (n = 49, 51, 50, 52 for Levels 1-4, respectively). Men were predominantly white (93%), with a median age of 70 years (Intra-quartile Range [IQR]: 65,75) and 3 years (IQR: 1,9) post primary treatment for mostly localized disease (74% with T1-2). There were no meaningful changes in QoL, but there were notable trends. Level 3 participants had small improvements in QLQ-C30 Global Health (5.46; 95% CI: -0.02, 10.95) compared to Level 1. In contrast, Level 2 participants trended toward decreasing Global QoL (-2.31, 95% CI: -8.05, 3.42), which may reflect declines in function (eg, Cognitive: -6.94, 95% CI: -13.76, -0.13) and higher symptom burden (eg, Diarrhea: 4.63, 95% CI: -1.48, 10.74). CONCLUSIONS: This short, web-based intervention did not appear to have an impact on PC survivors' QoL. Most men were several years past treatment for localized disease; the potential for this approach to reduce symptoms and improve QoL in men who have worse health may still be warranted.