Causal mediation analysis with mediator values below an assay limit.

Causal indirect and direct effects provide an interpretable method for decomposing the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect through a mediator and the direct effect through all other pathways. A natural choice for a mediator in a randomized clinical trial is the treatment's targeted biomarker. However, when the mediator is a biomarker, values can be subject to an assay lower limit. The mediator is affected by the treatment and is a putative cause of the outcome, so the assay lower limit presents a compounded problem in mediation analysis. We propose two approaches to estimate indirect and direct effects with a mediator subject to an assay limit: (1) extrapolation and (2) numerical optimization and integration of the observed likelihood. Since these estimation methods solely rely on the so-called Mediation Formula, they apply to most approaches to causal mediation analysis: natural, separable, and organic indirect, and direct effects. A simulation study compares the two estimation approaches to imputing with half the assay limit. Using HIV interruption study data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group described in Li et al 2016, AIDS; Lok and Bosch 2021, Epidemiology, we illustrate our methods by estimating the organic/pure indirect effect of a hypothetical HIV curative treatment on viral suppression mediated by two HIV persistence measures: cell-associated HIV-RNA and single-copy plasma HIV-RNA.

Association of Physical Inactivity with MRI Markers of Brain Aging: Assessing Mediation by Cardiometabolic and Epigenetic Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiometabolic risk factors and epigenetic patterns, increased in physically inactive individuals, are associated with an accelerated brain aging process. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether cardiometabolic risk factors and epigenetic patterns mediate the association of physical inactivity with unfavorable brain morphology. METHODS: We included dementia and stroke free participants from the Framingham Heart Study Third Generation and Offspring cohorts who had accelerometery and brain MRI data (n = 2,507, 53.9% women, mean age 53.9 years). We examined mediation by the 2017-revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP, using weights for age, cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, diabetes and smoking status, antihypertension medications, and systolic blood pressure) and the homeostatic model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in models of the association of physical inactivity with brain aging, adjusting for age, age-squared, sex, accelerometer wear time, cohort, time from exam-to-MRI, and season. We similarly assessed mediation by an epigenetic age-prediction algorithm, GrimAge, in a smaller sample of participants who had DNA methylation data (n = 1,418). RESULTS: FSRP and HOMA-IR explained 8.3-20.5% of associations of higher moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), higher steps, and lower sedentary time with higher brain volume. Additionally, FSRP and GrimAge explained 10.3-22.0% of associations of physical inactivity with lower white matter diffusivity and FSRP explained 19.7% of the association of MVPA with lower free water accumulation. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that cardiometabolic risk factors and epigenetic patterns partially mediate the associations of physical inactivity with lower brain volume, higher white matter diffusivity, and aggregation of free water in the extracellular compartments of the brain.

Prospective Association of Daily Steps With Cardiovascular Disease: A Harmonized Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Taking fewer than the widely promoted "10 000 steps per day" has recently been associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. The relationship of steps and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly described. A meta-analysis examining the dose-response relationship between steps per day and CVD can help inform clinical and public health guidelines. METHODS: Eight prospective studies (20 152 adults [ie, ≥18 years of age]) were included with device-measured steps and participants followed for CVD events. Studies quantified steps per day and CVD events were defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were completed using study-specific quartiles and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were meta-analyzed with inverse-variance-weighted random effects models. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 63.2±12.4 years and 52% were women. The mean follow-up was 6.2 years (123 209 person-years), with a total of 1523 CVD events (12.4 per 1000 participant-years) reported. There was a significant difference in the association of steps per day and CVD between older (ie, ≥60 years of age) and younger adults (ie, <60 years of age). For older adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93), 0.62 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74), and 0.51 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.63) compared with the lowest quartile. For younger adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.35), 0.90 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.25), and 0.95 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.61 to 1.48) compared with the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a nonlinear association whereby more steps were associated with decreased risk of CVD among older adults. CONCLUSIONS: For older adults, taking more daily steps was associated with a progressively decreased risk of CVD. Monitoring and promoting steps per day is a simple metric for clinician-patient communication and population health to reduce the risk of CVD.

Association of Accelerometer-Measured Physical Activity and Sedentary Time with Epigenetic Markers of Aging.

INTRODUCTION/PURPOSE: Physical activity may influence chronic disease risk, in part, through epigenetic mechanisms. Previous studies have demonstrated that an acute bout of physical activity can influence DNA methylation status. Few studies have explored the relationship between habitual, accelerometer-measured physical activity or sedentary time with epigenetic markers of aging. METHODS: We used linear regression to examine cross-sectional associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity and sedentary time with extrinsic and intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA and IEAA) models and GrimAge measured from blood samples from Framingham Heart Study participants with accelerometry and DNA methylation data ( n = 2435; mean age, 54.9 ± 14.3; 46.0% men). Residuals of Hannum-, Horvath-, and GrimAge-predicted epigenetic age were calculated by regressing epigenetic age on chronological age. We took into account blood cell composition for EEAA, IEAA, and AdjGrimAge. Moderate to vigorous physical activity was log-transformed to normalize its distribution. Adjustment models accounted for family structure, age, sex, smoking status, cohort-laboratory indicator, and accelerometer wear time. We additionally explored adjustment for body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Walking 1500 more steps per day or spending 3 fewer hours sedentary was associated with >10 months lower GrimAge biological age (or ~1 month lower AdjGrimAge, after adjusting for blood cells, P < 0.05). Every 5 min·d -1 more moderate to vigorous physical activity was associated with 19-79 d of lower GrimAge (4-23 d lower using EEAA or AdjGrimAge, P < 0.01). Adjusting for BMI attenuated these results, but all statistically significant associations with AdjGrimAge remained. CONCLUSIONS: Greater habitual physical activity and lower sedentary time were associated with lower epigenetic age, which was partially explained by BMI. Further research should explore whether changes in physical activity influence methylation status and whether those modifications influence chronic disease risk.

Blood-Based Fingerprint of Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Long-Term Health Outcomes in Young Adulthood.

Background Cardiorespiratory fitness is a powerful predictor of health outcomes that is currently underused in primary prevention, especially in young adults. We sought to develop a blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness that is easily translatable across populations. Methods and Results Maximal effort cardiopulmonary exercise testing for quantification of cardiorespiratory fitness (by peak oxygen uptake) and profiling of >200 metabolites at rest were performed in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; 2016-2019). A metabolomic fitness score was derived/validated in the FHS and was associated with long-term outcomes in the younger CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study. In the FHS (derivation, N=451; validation, N=914; age 54±8 years, 53% women, body mass index 27.7±5.3 kg/m2), we used LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression to develop a multimetabolite score to predict peak oxygen uptake (correlation with peak oxygen uptake r=0.77 in derivation, 0.61 in validation; both P<0.0001). In a linear model including clinical risk factors, a ≈1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score had equivalent magnitude of association with peak oxygen uptake as a 9.2-year age increment. In the CARDIA study (N=2300, median follow-up 26.9 years, age 32±4 years, 44% women, 44% Black individuals), a 1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score was associated with a 44% lower risk for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.56 [95% CI, 0.47-0.68]; P<0.0001) and 32% lower risk for cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.55-0.84]; P=0.0003) in models adjusted for age, sex, and race, which remained robust with adjustment for clinical risk factors. Conclusions A blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness largely independent of traditional risk factors is associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in young adults.

Predictors of incident diabetes in two populations: framingham heart study and hispanic community health study / study of latinos.

BACKGROUND: Non-genetic factors contribute to differences in diabetes risk across race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups, which raises the question of whether effects of predictors of diabetes are similar across populations. We studied diabetes incidence in the primarily non-Hispanic White Framingham Heart Study (FHS, N = 4066) and the urban, largely immigrant Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL, N = 6891) Please check if the affiliations are captured and presented correctly. METHODS: Clinical, behavioral, and socioeconomic characteristics were collected at in-person examinations followed by seven-day accelerometry. Among individuals without diabetes, Cox proportional hazards regression models (both age- and sex-adjusted, and then multivariable-adjusted for all candidate predictors) identified predictors of incident diabetes over a decade of follow-up, defined using clinical history or laboratory assessments. RESULTS: Four independent predictors were shared between FHS and HCHS/SOL. In each cohort, the multivariable-adjusted hazard of diabetes increased by approximately 50% for every ten-year increment of age and every five-unit increment of body mass index (BMI), and was 50-70% higher among hypertensive than among non-hypertensive individuals (all P < 0.01). Compared with full-time employment status, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for part-time employment was 0.61 (0.37,1.00) in FHS and 0.62 (0.41,0.95) in HCHS/SOL. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was an additional predictor in common observed in age- and sex-adjusted models, which did not persist after adjustment for other covariates (compared with MVPA ≤ 5 min/day, HR for MVPA level ≥ 30 min/day was 0.48 [0.31,0.74] in FHS and 0.74 [0.56,0.97] in HCHS/SOL). Additional predictors found in sex- and age-adjusted analyses among the FHS participants included male gender and lower education, but these predictors were not found to be independent of others in multivariable adjusted models, nor were they associated with diabetes risk among HCHS/SOL adults. CONCLUSIONS: The same four independent predictors - age, body mass index, hypertension and employment status - were associated with diabetes risk across two disparate US populations. While the reason for elevated diabetes risk in full-time workers is unclear, the findings suggest that diabetes may be part of the work-related burden of disease. Our findings also support prior evidence that differences by gender and socioeconomic position in diabetes risk are not universally present across populations.

Do Physical Therapy and Yoga Improve Pain and Disability through Psychological Mechanisms? A Causal Mediation Analysis of Adults with Chronic Low Back Pain.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether indirect effects via psychological mechanisms explain the effects of physical therapy (PT) or yoga versus education on back-related outcomes. DESIGN: Mediation analyses using data from a randomized controlled trial of PT, yoga, and education interventions for chronic low back pain. METHODS: Primary outcomes were changes in back-related pain on the 11-point numeric rating scale and disability on the modified 23-point Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire, measured at 52 weeks after randomization. Hypothesized mediators were 12-week changes in pain self-efficacy, fear-avoidance beliefs, depression, anxiety, perceived stress, and sleep quality. We used causal mediation analysis to estimate the total effect, direct effect, indirect effect, and proportion mediated. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 230 adults (mean age = 46.2 years, 69.6% female, 79.6% non-White). In the PT-versus-education model, when the mediator was perceived stress, the total effect on disability was 2.6 points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3, 4.9) and decomposed into a direct effect of 1.7 points (95% CI: -0.4, 3.8) and an indirect effect 0.9 points (95% CI: 0.1, 2.0; proportion mediated, 34%). No other psychological construct was a significant mediator. CONCLUSION: Improvements in perceived stress mediated improvements in disability after PT treatment compared to education. Other psychological outcomes did not mediate the effect of yoga or PT on pain or disability outcomes compared to education. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2022;52(7):470-483. Epub: 18 May 2022. doi:10.2519/jospt.2022.10813.

Daily steps and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of 15 international cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Although 10 000 steps per day is widely promoted to have health benefits, there is little evidence to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the association between number of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we identified studies investigating the effect of daily step count on all-cause mortality in adults (aged ≥18 years), via a previously published systematic review and expert knowledge of the field. We asked participating study investigators to process their participant-level data following a standardised protocol. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality collected from death certificates and country registries. We analysed the dose-response association of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. We did Cox proportional hazards regression analyses using study-specific quartiles of steps per day and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with inverse-variance weighted random effects models. FINDINGS: We identified 15 studies, of which seven were published and eight were unpublished, with study start dates between 1999 and 2018. The total sample included 47 471 adults, among whom there were 3013 deaths (10·1 per 1000 participant-years) over a median follow-up of 7·1 years ([IQR 4·3-9·9]; total sum of follow-up across studies was 297 837 person-years). Quartile median steps per day were 3553 for quartile 1, 5801 for quartile 2, 7842 for quartile 3, and 10 901 for quartile 4. Compared with the lowest quartile, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0·60 (95% CI 0·51-0·71) for quartile 2, 0·55 (0·49-0·62) for quartile 3, and 0·47 (0·39-0·57) for quartile 4. Restricted cubic splines showed progressively decreasing risk of mortality among adults aged 60 years and older with increasing number of steps per day until 6000-8000 steps per day and among adults younger than 60 years until 8000-10 000 steps per day. Adjusting for number of steps per day, comparing quartile 1 with quartile 4, the association between higher stepping rates and mortality was attenuated but remained significant for a peak of 30 min (HR 0·67 [95% CI 0·56-0·83]) and a peak of 60 min (0·67 [0·50-0·90]), but not significant for time (min per day) spent walking at 40 steps per min or faster (1·12 [0·96-1·32]) and 100 steps per min or faster (0·86 [0·58-1·28]). INTERPRETATION: Taking more steps per day was associated with a progressively lower risk of all-cause mortality, up to a level that varied by age. The findings from this meta-analysis can be used to inform step guidelines for public health promotion of physical activity. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The association of lung function and pulmonary vasculature volume with cardiorespiratory fitness in the community.

BACKGROUND: Cardiorespiratory fitness is not limited by pulmonary mechanical reasons in the majority of adults. However, the degree to which lung function contributes to exercise response patterns among ostensibly healthy individuals remains unclear. METHODS: We examined 2314 Framingham Heart Study participants who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and pulmonary function testing. We investigated the association of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) with the primary outcome of peak oxygen uptake (V'O2 ) along with other CPET parameters using multivariable linear regression. Finally, we investigated the association of total and peripheral pulmonary blood vessel volume with peak V'O2 . RESULTS: We found lower FEV1, FVC and D LCO were associated with lower peak V'O2 . For example, a 1 L lower FEV1 and FVC was associated with a 7.1% (95% CI 5.1-9.1%) and 6.0% (95% CI 4.3-7.7%) lower peak V'O2 , respectively. By contrast, FEV1/FVC was not associated with peak V'O2 . Lower lung function was associated with lower oxygen uptake efficiency slope, oxygen pulse slope, V'O2 at anaerobic threshold (AT), minute ventilation (V'E) at AT and breathing reserve. In addition, lower total and peripheral pulmonary blood vessel volume were associated with lower peak V'O2 . CONCLUSIONS: In a large, community-based cohort of adults, we found lower FEV1, FVC and D LCO were associated with lower exercise capacity, as well as oxygen uptake efficiency slope and ventilatory efficiency. In addition, lower total and peripheral pulmonary blood vessel volume were associated with lower peak V'O2 . These findings underscore the importance of lung function and blood vessel volume as contributors to overall exercise capacity.

Device-measured physical activity, adiposity and mortality: a harmonised meta-analysis of eight prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The joint associations of total and intensity-specific physical activity with obesity in relation to all-cause mortality risk are unclear. METHODS: We included 34 492 adults (72% women, median age 62.1 years, 2034 deaths during follow-up) in a harmonised meta-analysis of eight population-based prospective cohort studies with mean follow-up ranging from 6.0 to 14.5 years. Standard body mass index categories were cross-classified with sample tertiles of device-measured total, light-to-vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and sedentary time. In five cohorts with waist circumference available, high and low waist circumference was combined with tertiles of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. RESULTS: There was an inverse dose-response relationship between higher levels of total and intensity-specific physical activity and mortality risk in those who were normal weight and overweight. In individuals with obesity, the inverse dose-response relationship was only observed for total physical activity. Similarly, lower levels of sedentary time were associated with lower mortality risk in normal weight and overweight individuals but there was no association between sedentary time and risk of mortality in those who were obese. Compared with the obese-low total physical activity reference, the HRs were 0.59 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.79) for normal weight-high total activity and 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94) for obese-high total activity. In contrast, normal weight-low total physical activity was associated with a higher risk of mortality compared with the obese-low total physical activity reference (1.28; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower risk of mortality irrespective of weight status. Compared with obesity-low physical activity, there was no survival benefit of being normal weight if physical activity levels were low.

Physical activity and fitness in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

AIMS: While greater physical activity (PA) is associated with improved health outcomes, the direct links between distinct components of PA, their changes over time, and cardiorespiratory fitness are incompletely understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Maximum effort cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and objective PA measures [sedentary time (SED), steps/day, and moderate-vigorous PA (MVPA)] via accelerometers worn for 1 week concurrent with CPET and 7.8 years prior were obtained in 2070 Framingham Heart Study participants [age 54 ± 9 years, 51% women, SED 810 ± 83 min/day, steps/day 7737 ± 3520, MVPA 22.3 ± 20.3 min/day, peak oxygen uptake (VO2) 23.6 ± 6.9 mL/kg/min]. Adjusted for clinical risk factors, increases in steps/day and MVPA and reduced SED between the two assessments were associated with distinct aspects of cardiorespiratory fitness (measured by VO2) during initiation, early-moderate level, peak exercise, and recovery, with the highest effect estimates for MVPA (false discovery rate <5% for all). Findings were largely consistent across categories of age, sex, obesity, and cardiovascular risk. Increases of 17 min of MVPA/day [95% confidence interval (CI) 14-21] or 4312 steps/day (95% CI 3439-5781; ≈54 min at 80 steps/min), or reductions of 249 min of SED per day (95% CI 149-777) between the two exam cycles corresponded to a 5% (1.2 mL/kg/min) higher peak VO2. Individuals with high (above-mean) steps or MVPA demonstrated above average peak VO2 values regardless of whether they had high or low SED. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide a detailed assessment of relations of different types of PA with multidimensional cardiorespiratory fitness measures and suggest favourable longitudinal changes in PA (and MVPA in particular) are associated with greater objective fitness.

Feasibility, Methodology, and Interpretation of Broad-Scale Assessment of Cardiorespiratory Fitness in a Large Community-Based Sample.

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is intricately related to health status. The optimal approach for CRF quantification is through assessment of peak oxygen uptake (VO2), but such measurements have been largely confined to small referral populations. Here we describe protocols and methodological considerations for peak VO2 assessment and determination of volitional effort in a large community-based sample. Maximum incremental ramp cycle ergometry cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was performed by Framingham Heart Study participants at a routine study visit (2016 to 2019). Of 3,486 individuals presenting for a multicomponent study visit, 3,116 (89%) completed CPET. The sample was middle-aged (54 ± 9 years), with 53% women, body mass index 28.3 ± 5.6 kg/m2, 48% with hypertension, 6% smokers, and 8% with diabetes. Exercise duration was 12.0 ± 2.1 minutes (limits 3.7to20.5). No major cardiovascular events occurred. A total of 98%, 96%, 90%, 76%, and 57% of the sample reached peak respiratory exchange ratio (RER) values of ≥1.0, ≥1.05, ≥1.10, ≥1.15, and ≥1.20, respectively (mean peak RER = 1.21 ± 0.10). With rising peak RER values up to ≈1.10, steep changes were observed for percent predicted peak VO2, VO2 at the ventilatory threshold/peak VO2, heart rate response, and Borg (subjective dyspnea) scores. More shallow changes for effort dependent CPET variables were observed with higher achieved RER values. In conclusion, measurement of peak VO2 is feasible and safe in a large sample of middle-aged, community-dwelling individuals with heterogeneous cardiovascular risk profiles. Peak RER ≥1.10 was achievable by the majority of middle-aged adults and RER values beyond this threshold did not necessarily correspond to higher peak VO2 values.

Joint associations of accelero-meter measured physical activity and sedentary time with all-cause mortality: a harmonised meta-analysis in more than 44 000 middle-aged and older individuals.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the joint associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity and sedentary time with all-cause mortality. METHODS: We conducted a harmonised meta-analysis including nine prospective cohort studies from four countries. 44 370 men and women were followed for 4.0 to 14.5 years during which 3451 participants died (7.8% mortality rate). Associations between different combinations of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time were analysed at study level using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and summarised using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Across cohorts, the average time spent sedentary ranged from 8.5 hours/day to 10.5 hours/day and 8 min/day to 35 min/day for MVPA. Compared with the referent group (highest physical activity/lowest sedentary time), the risk of death increased with lower levels of MVPA and greater amounts of sedentary time. Among those in the highest third of MVPA, the risk of death was not statistically different from the referent for those in the middle (16%; 95% CI 0.87% to 1.54%) and highest (40%; 95% CI 0.87% to 2.26%) thirds of sedentary time. Those in the lowest third of MVPA had a greater risk of death in all combinations with sedentary time; 65% (95% CI 1.25% to 2.19%), 65% (95% CI 1.24% to 2.21%) and 263% (95% CI 1.93% to 3.57%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Higher sedentary time is associated with higher mortality in less active individuals when measured by accelerometry. About 30-40 min of MVPA per day attenuate the association between sedentary time and risk of death, which is lower than previous estimates from self-reported data.

Dose-response associations between accelerometry measured physical activity and sedentary time and all cause mortality: systematic review and harmonised meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the dose-response associations between accelerometer assessed total physical activity, different intensities of physical activity, and sedentary time and all cause mortality. DESIGN: Systematic review and harmonised meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Web of Science, Sport Discus from inception to 31 July 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Prospective cohort studies assessing physical activity and sedentary time by accelerometry and associations with all cause mortality and reported effect estimates as hazard ratios, odds ratios, or relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS: Guidelines for meta-analyses and systematic reviews for observational studies and PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts. One author performed a full text review and another extracted the data. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias. Individual level participant data were harmonised and analysed at study level. Data on physical activity were categorised by quarters at study level, and study specific associations with all cause mortality were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Study specific results were summarised using random effects meta-analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: 39 studies were retrieved for full text review; 10 were eligible for inclusion, three were excluded owing to harmonisation challenges (eg, wrist placement of the accelerometer), and one study did not participate. Two additional studies with unpublished mortality data were also included. Thus, individual level data from eight studies (n=36 383; mean age 62.6 years; 72.8% women), with median follow-up of 5.8 years (range 3.0-14.5 years) and 2149 (5.9%) deaths were analysed. Any physical activity, regardless of intensity, was associated with lower risk of mortality, with a non-linear dose-response. Hazards ratios for mortality were 1.00 (referent) in the first quarter (least active), 0.48 (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.54) in the second quarter, 0.34 (0.26 to 0.45) in the third quarter, and 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32) in the fourth quarter (most active). Corresponding hazards ratios for light physical activity were 1.00, 0.60 (0.54 to 0.68), 0.44 (0.38 to 0.51), and 0.38 (0.28 to 0.51), and for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity were 1.00, 0.64 (0.55 to 0.74), 0.55 (0.40 to 0.74), and 0.52 (0.43 to 0.61). For sedentary time, hazards ratios were 1.00 (referent; least sedentary), 1.28 (1.09 to 1.51), 1.71 (1.36 to 2.15), and 2.63 (1.94 to 3.56). CONCLUSION: Higher levels of total physical activity, at any intensity, and less time spent sedentary, are associated with substantially reduced risk for premature mortality, with evidence of a non-linear dose-response pattern in middle aged and older adults. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018091808.