Integrating laboratory experiments and biogeographic modelling approaches to understand sensitivity to ocean warming in rare and common marine annelids.

Among ectotherms, rare species are expected to have a narrower thermal niche breadth and reduced acclimation capacity and thus be more vulnerable to global warming than their common relatives. To assess these hypotheses, we experimentally quantified the thermal sensitivity of seven common, uncommon, and rare species of temperate marine annelids of the genus Ophryotrocha to assess their vulnerability to ocean warming. We measured the upper and lower limits of physiological thermal tolerance, survival, and reproductive performance of each species along a temperature gradient (18, 24, and 30 °C). We then combined this information to produce curves of each species' fundamental thermal niche by including trait plasticity. Each thermal curve was then expressed as a habitat suitability index (HSI) and projected for the Mediterranean Sea and temperate Atlantic Ocean under a present day (1970-2000), mid- (2050-2059) and late- (2090-2099) 21st Century scenario for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Rare and uncommon species showed a reduced upper thermal tolerance compared to common species, and the niche breadth and acclimation capacity were comparable among groups. The simulations predicted an overall increase in the HSI for all species and identified potential hotspots of HSI decline for uncommon and rare species along the warm boundaries of their potential distribution, though they failed to project the higher sensitivity of these species into a greater vulnerability to ocean warming. In the discussion, we provide some caveats on the implications of our results for conservation efforts.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions.

OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios.

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems­and the goods and services they provide­for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario­consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C­is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Conservation physiology for applied management of marine fish: an overview with perspectives on the role and value of telemetry.

Physiological studies focus on the responses of cells, tissues and individuals to stressors, usually in laboratory situations. Conservation and management, on the other hand, focus on populations. The field of conservation physiology addresses the question of how abiotic drivers of physiological responses at the level of the individual alter requirements for successful conservation and management of populations. To achieve this, impacts of physiological effects at the individual level need to be scaled to impacts on population dynamics, which requires consideration of ecology. Successfully realizing the potential of conservation physiology requires interdisciplinary studies incorporating physiology and ecology, and requires that a constructive dialogue develops between these traditionally disparate fields. To encourage this dialogue, we consider the increasingly explicit incorporation of physiology into ecological models applied to marine fish conservation and management. Conservation physiology is further challenged as the physiology of an individual revealed under laboratory conditions is unlikely to reflect realized responses to the complex variable stressors to which it is exposed in the wild. Telemetry technology offers the capability to record an animal's behaviour while simultaneously recording environmental variables to which it is exposed. We consider how the emerging insights from telemetry can strengthen the incorporation of physiology into ecology.