Ecological risk assessment of tire and road wear particles: A preliminary screening for freshwater sources in Canada.

Abrasion of tires on road surfaces leads to the formation of tire and road wear particles (TRWPs). Approximately 5.9 million tonnes/year of TRWPs are emitted globally, and 12-20% of emissions generated on roads are transmitted into surface waters, where they can release (i.e., leach) chemical compounds that adversely affect aquatic species. To better understand the ecological risk of TRWPs, an acute, probabilistic ecological risk assessment model was developed and applied. This was a screening-level, conceptual ecological risk assessment (ERA) based on secondary data from published scientific studies. The model was demonstrated using British Columbia (BC) Highway 97 (TRWP source) and Kalamalka Lake (receiving water) in Canada, considering two spatial scenarios with varied highway (HWY) lengths and lake volumes. TRWP-derived chemical leachates considered for ERA were aniline, anthracene (ANT), benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P), fluoranthene (Fl), mercaptobenzothiazole (MBT), and zinc (Zn). An assumed 'total TRWP-derived leachate set' was also assessed, representing all compounds present in tire-derived leachate test solutions. The results indicated the risk to aquatic species in two spatial scenarios. In scenario 1, ecotoxicity risk was high from exposure to TRWP-derived zinc and the total TRWP-derived leachate set. Scenario 2 results indicated acute risk was high from all TRWP-derived chemicals examined, except MBT. This preliminary ecological risk screening provides an early signal that freshwater lakes adjacent to busy highways may be at risk from TRWP contamination, indicating a need for further research. This research is the first ERA of TRWPs in Canada, and the results and methodology provide a foundation for future research and solutions development.

An estimation of tire and road wear particles emissions in surface water based on a conceptual framework.

Freshwater sources have been contaminated with toxic and unwanted substances worldwide. Among these toxic substances, microplastics (MPs) are becoming prominent. There is already a debate on the impact of MPs on the aquatic environment. Tire and road wear particles (TRWPs) are a dominant group among MPs, and it is vital to estimate their occurrence in the environment. This study proposed a conceptual framework to estimate the occurrence and emissions of TRWPs in the environment. The proposed framework developed a vehicle emission model combined with a previously developed freshwater transport model and was demonstrated using a region in Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, as a case study. A sensitivity analysis was performed to address the uncertainty in TRWP emissions. Furthermore, scenarios were developed considering various environmental, management, and treatment factors to forecast the TRWP emissions under different situations. The total TRWPs emission estimated on the road ranged between 25 and 167 t/year, the estimated TRWPs emission to surface water ranged between 4 and 32 t/year, and the estimated TRWPs emission entering lakebed ranged between 4 and 23 t/year. Furthermore, the scenarios analysis showed that selected management and treatment strategies under given environmental conditions can reduce the total emission on-road (from >130 t/year to <60 t/year); reduce emission to surface water (from >35 t/year to ≈ 12 t/year); and reduce lakebed emissions (from 25 t/year to <8 t/year). Therefore, these management and treatment strategies could reduce the annual per-capita TRWP emissions from >4 kg/c/year to <2 kg/c/year. The proposed framework is flexible and can be adapted to forecast TRWP emissions in different regions. The developed model and framework can be improved by collecting more data and considering other contributing factors.

Developing an Integrated "Regression-QMRA method" to Predict Public Health Risks of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) for Improved Planning.

Worldwide Low Impact Developments (LIDs) are used for sustainable stormwater management; however, both the stormwater and LIDs carry microbial pathogens. The widespread development of LIDs is likely to increase human exposure to pathogens and risk of infection, leading to unexpected disease outbreaks in urban communities. The risk of infection from exposure to LIDs has been assessed via Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) during the operation of these infrastructures; no effort is made to evaluate these risks during the planning phase of LID treatment train in urban communities. We developed a new integrated "Regression-QMRA method" by examining the relationship between pathogens' concentration and environmental variables. Applying of this methodology to a planned LID train shows that the predicted disease burden of diarrhea from Campylobacter is highest (i.e. 16.902 DALYs/1000 persons/yr) during landscape irrigation and playing on the LID train, followed by Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Norovirus. These results illustrate that the risk of microbial infection can be predicted during the planning phase of LID treatment train. These predictions are of great value to municipalities and decision-makers to make informed decisions and ensure risk-based planning of stormwater systems before their development.

Probabilistic framework for assessing ecological risk of Contaminants of Emerging Concern: Application to a Canadian lake system.

Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CECs) in natural water pose risks to ecosystems. The concentration of CECs varies spatially and temporally, and their estimated ecotoxicities differ widely by toxicological studies. This study extensively reviewed literature on ecological risk assessment and proposed a probabilistic framework for assessing ecological risk and its uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic). The framework integrated Adverse Outcome Pathway in risk assessment and was applied to a Canadian lake system for seven CECs: salicylic acid, acetaminophen, caffeine, carbamazepine, ibuprofen, drospirenone, and sulfamethoxazole. Altogether 264 water samples were collected and analyzed from 15 sites May 2016 to September 2017. Phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish were also sampled and analyzed. The results show ecological risk estimates (Risk Quotient, RQ) varied considerably indicating a range of uncertainty. Based on the conservative estimate, the central tendency estimate of the ecological risk of mixture compounds was medium (RQ = 0.6) including drospirenone. However, the reasonably maximum estimate of the risk was high (RQ = 1.4) for mixture compounds including drospirenone. The high risk is primarily due to drospirenone as its individual risk was high (RQ = 1.1) to fish. The specific site and time of high drospirenone exposure was identified for implementing control measures. Classification of ecotoxicity values based on environmental parameters such as climate and water quality, can reduce uncertainty in the risk estimate.

Predicting unregulated disinfection by-products in small water distribution networks: an empirical modelling framework.

Disinfection is used to deactivate pathogens in drinking water. However, disinfectants react with natural organic matter present in water to form disinfection by-products (DBPs). While a few of these DBPs have been studied extensively and are regulated in many countries, new unregulated DBPs (UR-DBPs) have also recently been identified in drinking water. The UR-DBPs are considered to be more toxic than regulated DBPs (R-DBPs). To understand the occurrence of UR-DBPs in a water distribution network (WDN), this research presents an approach to predicting the behaviour of emerging UR-DBPs such as dichloroacetonitrile (DCAN), trichloropropanone (TCP), and trichloronitromethane (TCNM) in WDNs. Water quality data, generated by sampling and laboratory analysis of 12 small communities, was used to develop predictive models. A framework was also proposed alongside the predictive models to estimate the concentration of emerging UR-DBPs under limited water quality sampling information. Moreover, the relationship between emerging UR-DBP concentrations and their identified predictors was further observed and evaluated by developing contour profiles. DCAN and TCP predictive models have coefficient of determination (R2) > 85%, whereas for TCNM model, the R2 was > 65%. Water quality parameters including water temperature, turbidity, conductivity, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were identified as key predictors. Similarly, trichloroacetic acid and bromodichloromethane were identified as key predictors among DBP families, to predict the occurrence of emerging UR-DBPs. Developed models and relationships between the UR-DBPs and predictors can help water utilities and regulators to manage the occurrence of UR-DBPs in small WDNs.

Investigating the public health risks of low impact developments at residential, neighbourhood, and municipal levels.

Low Impact Developments (LIDs) employ a series of vegetative techniques to retain rainfall close to the site of origin. Although LIDs offer sustainable runoff management, these infrastructures can be considered a risk to public health due to the presence of pathogens in the runoff and human exposure to contaminated water held in and transported by LIDs. The objective of this study is to examine the disease burden of Gastrointestinal illness (GI) from exposure to LIDs at the residential, neighbourhood, and municipal levels. The authors conducted a meta-analysis of literature on three water features: (1) harvested rainwater obtained from LIDs, (2) surface water, and (3) floodwater. A set of 32 studies were systematically selected to collect values of risks of infection and expressed as the disease burden, i.e. disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The results showed that the percentage of GI illness exceeding the health guidelines were high for harvested rainwater, i.e. 22% of annual disease burden exceeded the WHO guidelines (0.001 DALYs/1000 persons), and 2% exceeded the US EPA guidelines (5.75 DALYs/1000 bathers). Among the six exposures for harvested rainwater, exposure to spray irrigation, exceeded US EPA guidelines whereas; five exposures, i.e. flushing, hosing, daily shower, spray irrigation, and children playing, surpassed the WHO guidelines. Considering LID treatment, the values of annual disease burden from all the selected barriers were below US EPA guidelines however, these values exceeded the WHO guidelines for three barriers i.e. water plaza, grass swale, and open storage ponds. These findings provide a broader perspective of the disease burden associated with LIDs and emphasise to consider the type of exposures and required treatment barriers for developing LID infrastructures in urban areas.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Drought Based on Satellite Derived Vegetation Condition Index in Nepal from 1982⁻2015.

Identification of drought is essential for many environmental and agricultural applications. To further understand drought, this study presented spatial and temporal variations of drought based on satellite derived Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) on annual (Jan⁻Dec), seasonal monsoon (Jun⁻Nov) and pre-monsoon (Mar⁻May) scales from 1982⁻2015 in Nepal. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) obtained from NOAA, AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and climate data from meteorological stations were used. VCI was used to grade the drought, and the Mann⁻Kendall test and linear trend analysis were conducted to examine drought trends and the Pearson correlation between VCI and climatic factors (i.e., temperature and precipitation) was also acquired. The results identified that severe drought was identified in 1982, 1984, 1985 and 2000 on all time scales. However, VCI has increased at the rate of 1.14 yr-1 (p = 0.04), 1.31 yr-1 (p = 0.03) and 0.77 yr-1 (p = 0.77) on the annual, seasonal monsoon and pre-monsoon scales, respectively. These increased VCIs indicated decreases in drought. However, spatially, increased trends of drought were also found in some regions in Nepal. For instance, northern areas mainly in the Trans-Himalayan regions identified severe drought. The foothills and the lowlands of Terai (southern Nepal) experienced normal VCI, i.e., no drought. Similarly, the Anomaly Vegetation Condition Index (AVCI) was mostly negative before 2000 which indicated deficient soil moisture. The exceedance probability analysis results on the annual time scale showed that there was a 20% chance of occurring severe drought (VCI ≤ 35%) and a 35% chance of occurring normal drought (35% ≤ VCI ≤ 50%) in Nepal. Drought was also linked with climates in which temperature on the annual and seasonal monsoon scales was significant and positively correlated with VCI. Drought occurrence and trends in Nepal need to be further studied for comprehensive information and understanding.

Selection of sustainable municipal water reuse applications by multi-stakeholders using game theory.

Globally the trend of water reuse has been increasing. The public perception and government regulations are supportive for reclaimed water use in Canada. Reclaimed water can be used in variety of applications that may have different performance in economic, environmental and social dimensions for various stakeholders, indicating decision on water reuse selection is complex. This research proposes a multi-criteria multi-decision-makers framework combining multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and game theory for a selection of a sustainable water reuse application. The proposed framework is applied to the City of Penticton, BC, Canada. The evaluation criteria included were environmental: fresh water saving, energy use, and carbon emissions; economic: annualized life cycle cost; and social: government policy, public perception, and human health risk for three stakeholders: municipality, citizens, and farm operators. The game theory is applied to eight water reuse options considering a cooperative game. The result shows that lawn, golf course and public park irrigation and toilet flushing with an equal sharing of municipal benefits between the municipality and citizens is the optimal solution. By using the solution, the municipality can have an additional saving of approximately $35/household/year and the citizens have to spend an additional amount of approximately $100/household/year for dual plumbing of toilet and lawn for reclaimed water use. The additional expenditure for the citizens is within Canada's public willingness to pay an additional charge for reclaimed water use. The scenario analysis shows that the weights of sustainability criteria are important in decision-making. Also, the sensitivity analysis shows that the change in the amount of reclaimed water availability can affect water reuse sustainability performance. The proposed framework can also be used in other applications by changing the number of evaluation criteria and stakeholders as required.

Unregulated disinfection By-products in drinking water in Quebec: A meta analysis.

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) are formed primarily by the reaction of natural organic matter and disinfectants. DBPs that are not regulated are referred to as unregulated DBPs (U-DBPs) and they are in majority in total DBPs. U-DBPs can be more toxic than regulated DBPs. U-DBPs such as haloacetonitriles (HANs), haloacetonitriles (HKs) and halonitromethanes (HNMs) are widely present in drinking water supplies in different regions of the world. This study investigated the occurrence of U-DBPs and their variability in drinking water in the Province of Quebec (Canada), using the water quality database of 40 municipal water systems generated by our research group. The concentrations of HANs, HKs, and their compounds, including chloropicrin (CPK), were highly variable in different water systems in Quebec. The concentration range of these U-DBPs is in line with drinking water concentration ranges in different regions of the world. Factors such as system size, water source, season, pH, total organic carbon content, free residual chlorine and disinfectant types cause significant variations in the concentrations of HANs, HKs and their constituent compounds, including CPK, in drinking water in Quebec. This information is valuable for decision making concerning source water selection, water distribution planning, water treatment plant design including disinfection, and overall drinking water quality management related to U-DBPs. Moreover, U-DBPs and regulated DBPs are strongly correlated, although the degree of correlation can vary with water source, system size and season, indicating that regulated DBPs can be used as surrogates of U-DBPs.

Fit-for-purpose wastewater treatment: Conceptualization to development of decision support tool (I).

This article is the first in a series of two papers. Paper I focuses on model conceptualization and development, and Paper II in the series focuses on model validation and implementation. The amount of water reuse has been increasing across the globe. Wastewater can be treated based on the intended end use of reclaimed water. Fit-for-purpose wastewater treatment (WWT) simultaneously considers intended end use, economic viability, and environmental sustainability. WWT technologies differ mainly in terms of treatment efficiency, cost, energy use, and associated carbon emissions. The planning and evaluation of water reuse projects requires a decision support tool (DST) to evaluate alternative WWT trains and water reuse applications. However, such a DST is not available in the publically accessible literature. A DST, FitWater, has been developed for the evaluation of WWT for various urban reuses. The evaluation is based on the following criteria: amount of reclaimed water production, health risk of water reuse, cost, energy use, and carbon emissions. The cost is estimated as annualized life cycle cost and health risk is estimated using quantitative microbial risk assessment. The uncertainty analysis has been performed using probabilistic and fuzzy-based methods. A multi-criteria decision analysis, using fuzzy weighted average, is employed to aggregate different criteria and generate a final score. FitWater ranks alternative WWT trains based on the resulting final score. The proposed FitWater DST is user-friendly, and its application is demonstrated using an example. The DST can be enhanced to include additional treatment technologies and carbon emissions of different treatment processes.

Fit-for-purpose wastewater treatment: Testing to implementation of decision support tool (II).

This paper is the second in a series of two papers. In Paper I, a decision support tool (DST), FitWater, was developed for evaluating the potential of wastewater treatment (WWT) trains for various water reuse applications. In the present paper, the proposed DST has been tested and implemented. FitWater has been tested with several existing WWT plants in Canada and the USA, demonstrating FitWater's effectiveness in estimating life cycle cost (LCC), health risk, and energy use. FitWater has also been implemented in a newly planned neighbourhood in the Okanagan Valley (BC, Canada) by developing 12 alternative WWT trains for water reuse in lawn and public parks irrigation. The results show that FitWater can effectively rank WWT train alternatives based on LCC, health risk, amount of reclaimed water, energy use, and carbon emissions. Moreover, functions have been developed for the variation of unit annualized LCC and energy intensity per unit log removal of microorganisms in different treatment technologies with varying plant capacities. The functions have power relations, showing the economies of scale. FitWater can be applied to identify a cost-effective, risk-acceptable, and energy efficient wastewater treatment train with a plant capacity of 500m3/day or more. Furthermore, FitWater can be used to assess potential economic impacts of developing microbiologically stringent effluent standards. The capability of FitWater can be enhanced by including physio-chemical quality of wastewater, additional treatment technologies, and carbon emissions from wastewater decomposition processes.

A new weighting factor in combining belief function.

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has been widely used in various applications. However, to solve the problem of counter-intuitive outcomes by using classical Dempster-Shafer combination rule is still an open issue while fusing the conflicting evidences. Many approaches based on discounted evidence and weighted average evidence have been investigated and have made significant improvements. Nevertheless, all of these approaches have inherent flaws. In this paper, a new weighting factor is proposed to address this problem. First, a modified dissimilarity measurement is proposed which is characterized by both distance and conflict between evidences. Second, a measurement of information volume of each evidence based on Deng entropy is introduced. Then two kinds of weight derived from aforementioned measurement are combined to obtain a new weighting factor and a weighted average method based on the new weighting factor is proposed. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. In the end, the new method is applied to a real-life application of river water quality monitoring, which effectively identify the major land use activities contributing to river pollution.

Selecting Sustainability Indicators for Small to Medium Sized Urban Water Systems Using Fuzzy-ELECTRE.

Urban water systems (UWSs) are challenged by the sustainability perspective. Certain limitations of the sustainability of centralized UWSs and decentralized household level wastewater treatments can be overcome by managing UWSs at an intermediate scale, referred to as small to medium sized UWSs (SMUWSs). SMUWSs are different from large UWSs, mainly in terms of smaller infrastructure, data limitation, smaller service area, and institutional limitations. Moreover, sustainability assessment systems to evaluate the sustainability of an entire UWS are very limited and confined only to large UWSs. This research addressed the gap and has developed a set of 38 applied sustainability performance indicators (SPIs) by using fuzzy-Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I outranking method to assess the sustainability of SMUWSs. The developed set of SPIs can be applied to existing and new SMUWSs and also provides a flexibility to include additional SPIs in the future based on the same selection criteria.

Microbial quality of reclaimed water for urban reuses: Probabilistic risk-based investigation and recommendations.

Although Canada has abundant freshwater resources, many cities still experience seasonal water shortage. Supply-side and demand-side management is a core strategy to address this water shortage. Under this strategy, reclaimed water, which the Canadian public is willing to use for non-potable purposes, is an option. However, no universal guidelines exist for reclaimed water use. Despite the federal government's long-term goal to develop guidelines for many water reuse applications, guidelines have only been prescribed for reclaimed water use in toilet and urinal flushing in Canada. At the provincial level, British Columbia (BC) has promulgated guidelines for wide applications of reclaimed water but only at broad class levels. This research has investigated and proposed probabilistic risk-based recommended values for microbial quality of reclaimed water in various non-potable urban reuses. The health risk was estimated by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations were used in the analysis to include variability and uncertainty in input data. The proposed recommended values are based on the indicator organism E. coli. The required treatment levels for reuse were also estimated. In addition, the recommended values were successfully applied to three wastewater treatment effluents in the Okanagan Valley, BC, Canada. The health risks associated with other bacterial pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella spp.), virus (adenovirus, norovirus, and rotavirus), and protozoa (Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia spp.), were also estimated. The estimated risks indicate the effectiveness of the E. coli-based water quality recommended values. Sensitivity analysis shows the pathogenic E. coli ratio and morbidity are the most sensitive input parameters for all water reuses. The proposed recommended values could be further improved by using national or regional data on water exposures, disease burden per case, and the susceptibility fraction of population.