Variable importance analysis with interpretable machine learning for fair risk prediction.

Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to assess variable importance, but such black box models lack stability when limited in sample sizes, and do not formally indicate non-important factors. The Shapley variable importance cloud (ShapleyVIC) addresses these limitations by assessing variable importance from an ensemble of regression models, which enhances robustness while maintaining interpretability, and estimates uncertainty of overall importance to formally test its significance. In a clinical study, ShapleyVIC reasonably identified important variables when the random forest and XGBoost failed to, and generally reproduced the findings from smaller subsamples (n = 2500 and 500) when statistical power of the logistic regression became attenuated. Moreover, ShapleyVIC reasonably estimated non-significant importance of race to justify its exclusion from the final prediction model, as opposed to the race-dependent model from the conventional stepwise model building. Hence, ShapleyVIC is robust and interpretable for variable importance assessment, with potential contribution to fairer clinical risk prediction.

Impact of time-to-compression on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survival outcomes: A national registry study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify the association of no-flow interval in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) with the odds of neurologically favorable survival and survival to hospital discharge/ 30th day. Our secondary aim was to explore futility thresholds to guide clinical decisions, such as prehospital termination of resuscitation. METHODS: All OHCAs from 2012 to 2017 in Singapore were extracted. We examined the association between no-flow interval (continuous variable) and survival outcomes using univariate and multivariable logistic regressions. The primary outcome was survival with favorable cerebral performance (Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories 1/2), the secondary outcome was survival to hospital discharge/ 30th day if not discharged. To determine futility thresholds, we plotted the adjusted probability of good neurological outcomes to no-flow interval. RESULTS: 12,771 OHCAs were analyzed. The per-minute adjusted OR when no-flow interval was incorporated as a continuous variable in the multivariable model was: good neurological function- aOR 0.98 (95%CI: 0.97-0.98); survival to discharge- aOR 0.98 (95%CI: 0.98-0.99). Taking the 1% futility of survival line gave a no-flow interval cutoff of 12 mins (NPV 99%, sensitivity 85% and specificity 42%) overall and 7.5 mins for witnessed arrests. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that prolonged no-flow interval had a significant effect on lower odds of favorable neurological outcomes, with medical futility occurring when no-flow interval was >12 mins (>7.5 mins for witnessed arrest). Our study adds to the literature of the importance of early CPR and EMS response and provided a threshold beyond traditional 'down-times', which could aid clinical decisions in TOR or OHCA management.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Traumatic Cardiac Arrests in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about survival outcomes after traumatic cardiac arrest in Asia, or the association of Utstein factors with survival after traumatic cardiac arrests. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology and outcomes of traumatic cardiac arrests in Asia, and analyze Utstein factors associated with survival. METHODS: Traumatic cardiac arrest patients from 13 countries in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study registry from 2009 to 2018 were analyzed. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with the primary outcomes of survival to hospital discharge and favorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) 1-2), and the secondary outcome of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). RESULTS: There were 207,455 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest cases, of which 13,631 (6.6%) were trauma patients aged 18 years and above with resuscitation attempted and who had survival outcomes reported. The median age was 57 years (interquartile range 39-73), 23.0% received bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), 1750 (12.8%) had ROSC, 461 (3.4%) survived to discharge, and 131 (1.0%) had CPC 1-2. Factors associated with higher rates of survival to discharge and favorable neurological outcome were arrests witnessed by emergency medical services or private ambulances (survival to discharge adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.99-4.38; CPC 1-2 aOR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.25-5.27), bystander CPR (survival to discharge aOR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.71-2.72; CPC 1-2 aOR = 4.98, 95% CI = 3.27-7.57), and initial shockable rhythm (survival to discharge aOR = 12.00; 95% CI = 6.80-21.17; CPC 1-2 aOR = 33.28, 95% CI = 11.39-97.23) or initial pulseless electrical activity (survival to discharge aOR = 3.98; 95% CI = 2.99-5.30; CPC 1-2 aOR = 5.67, 95% CI = 3.05-10.53) relative to asystole. CONCLUSIONS: In traumatic cardiac arrest, early aggressive resuscitation may not be futile and bystander CPR may improve outcomes.

Inter-hospital trends of post-resuscitation interventions and outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital-based resuscitation interventions, such as therapeutic temperature management (TTM), emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) can improve outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). We investigated post-resuscitation interventions and hospital characteristics on OHCA outcomes across public hospitals in Singapore over a 9-year period. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of all OHCA cases that presented to 6 hospitals in Singapore from 2010 to 2018. Data were extracted from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study Clinical Research Network (PAROS CRN) registry. We excluded patients younger than 18 years or were dead on arrival at the emergency department. The outcomes were 30-day survival post-arrest, survival to admission, and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The study analysed 17,735 cases. There was an increasing rate of provision of TTM, emergency PCI and ECMO (P<0.001) in hospitals, and a positive trend of survival outcomes (P<0.001). Relative to hospital F, hospitals B and C had lower provision rates of TTM (≤5.2%). ECMO rate was consistently <1% in all hospitals except hospital F. Hospitals A, B, C, E had <6.5% rates of provision of emergency PCI. Relative to hospital F, OHCA cases from hospitals A, B and C had lower odds of 30-day survival (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]<1; P<0.05 for hospitals A-C) and lower odds of good neurological outcomes (aOR<1; P<0.05 for hospitals A-C). OHCA cases from academic hospitals had higher odds ratio (OR) of 30-day survival (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5) than cases from hospitals without an academic status. CONCLUSION: Post-resuscitation interventions for OHCA increased across all hospitals in Singapore from 2010 to 2018, correlating with survival rates. The academic status of hospitals was associated with improved survival.

Validation of the CaRdiac Arrest Survival Score (CRASS) for predicting good neurological outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in an Asian emergency medical service system.

BACKGROUND: Survival with favorable neurological outcomes is an important indicator of successful resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). We sought to validate the CaRdiac Arrest Survival Score (CRASS), derived using data from the German Resuscitation Registry, in predicting the likelihood of good neurological outcomes after OHCA in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based validation study among EMS-attended OHCA patients (≥18 years) in Singapore, using data from the prospective Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study registry. Good neurological outcome was defined as a cerebral performance category of 1 or 2. To evaluate the CRASS score in light of the difference in patient characteristics, we used the default constant coefficient (0.8) and the adjusted coefficient (0.2) to calculate the probability of good neurological outcomes. RESULTS: Out of 11,404 analyzed patients recruited between April 2010 and December 2018, 260 had good and 11,144 had poor neurological function. The CRASS score demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the curve of 0.963 (95% confidence interval: 0.952-0.974). Using the default constant coefficient of 0.8, the CRASS score consistently overestimated the predicted probability of a good outcome. Following adjustment of the coefficient to 0.2, the CRASS score showed improved calibration. CONCLUSION: CRASS demonstrated good discrimination and moderate calibration in predicting favorable neurological outcomes in the validation Singapore cohort. Our study established a good foundation for future large-scale, cross-country validations of the CRASS score in diverse sociocultural, geographical, and clinical settings.

Assessing unrealised potential for organ donation after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Organ donation after brain death is the standard practice in many countries. Rates are low globally. This study explores the potential national number of candidates for uncontrolled donations after cardiac death (uDCD) amongst out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients and the influence of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) on the candidacy of these potential organ donors using Singapore as a case study. METHODS: Using Singapore data from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study, we identified all non-traumatic OHCA cases from 2010 to 2016. Four established criteria for identifying uDCD candidates (Madrid, San Carlos Madrid, Maastricht and Paris) were retrospectively applied onto the population. Within these four groups, a condensed ECPR eligibility criteria was employed and thereafter, an estimated ECPR survival rate was applied, extrapolating for possible neurologically intact survivors had ECPR been administered. RESULTS: 12,546 OHCA cases (64.8% male, mean age 65.2 years old) qualified for analysis. The estimated number of OHCA patients who were eligible for uDCD ranged from 4.3 to 19.6%. The final projected percentage of potential uDCD donors readjusted for ECPR survivors was 4.2% (Paris criteria worst-case scenario, n = 532) to 19.4% of all OHCA cases (Maastricht criteria best-case scenario, n = 2428), for an estimated 14.3 to 65.4 uDCD donors per million population per year (pmp/year). CONCLUSIONS: In Singapore case study, we demonstrated the potential numbers of candidates for uDCD among resuscitated OHCA cases. This sizeable pool of potential donors demonstrates the potential for an uDCD program to expand the organ donor pool. A small proportion of these patients might however survive had they been administered ECPR. Further research into the factors influencing local organ and patient outcomes following uDCD and ECPR is indicated.

Impact of dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation and myResponder mobile app on bystander resuscitation.

INTRODUCTION: Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (B-CPR) is associated with improved out-of hospital cardiac arrest survival. Community-level interventions including dispatcher-assisted CPR (DA-CPR) and myResponder were implemented to increase B-CPR. We sought to assess whether these interventions increased B-CPR. METHODS: The Singapore out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry captured cases that occurred between 2010 and 2017. Outcomes occurring in 3 time periods (Baseline, DA-CPR, and DA-CPR plus myResponder) were compared. Segmented regression of time-series data was conducted to investigate our intervention impact on the temporal changes in B-CPR. RESULTS: A total of 13,829 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest cases were included from April 2010 to December 2017. Higher B-CPR rates (24.8% versus 50.8% vs 64.4%) were observed across the 3 time periods. B-CPR rates showed an increasing but plateauing trend. DA-CPR implementation was significantly associated with an increased B-CPR (level odds ratio [OR] 2.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.79-2.88; trend OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04), while no positive change was detected with myResponder (level OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.82-1.11; trend OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.00). CONCLUSION: B-CPR rates in Singapore have been increasing alongside the implementation of community-level interventions such as DA-CPR and myResponder. DA-CPR was associated with improved odds of receiving B-CPR over time while the impact of myResponder was less clear.

Improved Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survival with a Comprehensive Dispatcher-Assisted CPR Program in a Developing Emergency Care System.

OBJECTIVE: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with poor survival. Studies have demonstrated improved survival with early bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (BCPR). This study evaluated the impact of a dispatcher-assisted CPR (DA-CPR) program on BCPR rate and outcomes of OHCA in a developing emergency medical services (EMS) system setting. METHODS: Data were extracted from the national cardiac arrest registry. A before-after analysis was performed between OHCA cases with cardiac etiology conveyed by EMS from April 2010-June 2012 (pre-intervention) and July 2012-December 2015 (post-intervention). Primary outcomes were survival-to-discharge/30 days post-arrest and favorable cerebral performance (Glasgow-Pittsburgh cerebral performance categories 1 and 2). RESULTS: 6365 OHCA cases were analyzed with 2129 in the pre-intervention and 4236 in the post-intervention group. In the post-intervention group, there was an increase in BCPR rates from 24.8% to 53.8% (p < 0.001), adjusted OR 3.67 (aOR; 95%CI: 3.26-4.13). OHCA outcomes also improved with survival-to-discharge rates increasing from 3.0%-4.5% (p < 0.01), aOR 2.10 (95%CI: 1.40-3.17) and favorable cerebral performance increasing from 1.6% to 2.7% (p < 0.05), aOR 2.82 (95%CI: 1.65-4.82). In patients with initial shockable rhythm, BCPR without dispatcher assistance was associated with significantly higher odds of survival-to-discharge (aOR 1.67, 95%CI: 1.06-2.64) and favorable cerebral performance (aOR 2.32, 95%CI: 1.26-4.27) compared to no BCPR. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that a simplified DA-CPR program can be successfully implemented in a developing EMS system and can contribute to higher BCPR rate and in turn, improve OHCA survival. Future studies can examine bystanders' characteristics and quality of the CPR performed to understand their impact on survival.

Implementation of a National 5-Year Plan for Prehospital Emergency Care in Singapore and Impact on Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Outcomes From 2011 to 2016.

Background Outcomes of patients from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) vary widely globally because of differences in prehospital systems of emergency care. National efforts had gone into improving OHCA outcomes in Singapore in recent years including community and prehospital initiatives. We aimed to document the impact of implementation of a national 5-year Plan for prehospital emergency care in Singapore on OHCA outcomes from 2011 to 2016. Methods and Results Prospective, population-based data of OHCA brought to Emergency Departments were obtained from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study cohort. The primary outcome was Utstein (bystander witnessed, shockable rhythm) survival-to-discharge or 30-day postarrest. Mid-year population estimates were used to calculate age-standardized incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify prehospital characteristics associated with survival-to-discharge across time. A total of 11 465 cases qualified for analysis. Age-standardized incidence increased from 26.1 per 100 000 in 2011 to 39.2 per 100 000 in 2016. From 2011 to 2016, Utstein survival rates nearly doubled from 11.6% to 23.1% (P=0.006). Overall survival rates improved from 3.6% to 6.5% (P<0.001). Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation rates more than doubled from 21.9% to 56.3% and bystander automated external defibrillation rates also increased from 1.8% to 4.6%. Age ≤65 years, nonresidential location, witnessed arrest, shockable rhythm, bystander automated external defibrillation, and year 2016 were independently associated with improved survival. Conclusions Implementation of a national prehospital strategy doubled OHCA survival in Singapore from 2011 to 2016, along with corresponding increases in bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and bystander automated external defibrillation. This can be an implementation model for other systems trying to improve OHCA outcomes.

Impact of bystander-focused public health interventions on cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases an individual's chance of survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), but the frequency of bystander CPR is low in many communities. We aimed to assess the cumulative effect of CPR-targeted public health interventions in Singapore, which were incrementally introduced between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: We did a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of adult, non-traumatic OHCAs, through the Singapore registry. National interventions introduced during this time included emergency services interventions, as well as dispatch-assisted CPR (introduced on July 1, 2012), a training programme for CPR and automated external defibrillators (April 1, 2014), and a first responder mobile application (myResponder; April 17, 2015). Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression, we modelled the likelihood of receiving bystander CPR with the increasing number of interventions, accounting for year as a random effect. FINDINGS: The Singapore registry contained 11 465 OHCA events between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2016. Paediatric arrests, arrests witnessed by emergency medical services, and healthcare-facility arrests were excluded, and 6788 events were analysed. Bystander CPR was administered in 3248 (48%) of 6788 events. Compared with no intervention, likelihood of bystander CPR was not significantly altered by the addition of emergency medical services interventions (odds ratio [OR] 1·33 [95% CI 0·98-1·79]; p=0·065), but increased with implementation of dispatch-assisted CPR (3·72 [2·84-4·88]; p<0·0001), with addition of the CPR and automated external defibrillator training programme (6·16 [4·66-8·14]; p<0·0001), and with addition of the myResponder application (7·66 [5·85-10·03]; p<0·0001). Survival to hospital discharge increased after the addition of all interventions, compared with no intervention (OR 3·10 [95% CI 1·53-6·26]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: National bystander-focused public health interventions were associated with an increased likelihood of bystander CPR, and an increased survival to hospital discharge. Understanding the combined impact of public health interventions might improve strategies to increase the likelihood of bystander CPR, and inform targeted initiatives to improve survival from OHCA. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council, Clinician Scientist Award, Singapore and Ministry of Health, Health Services Research Grant, Singapore.

The Hoarse Voice of an Aortic Aneurysm Rupture: Ortner's Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Aortic aneurysm ruptures are associated with high fatality. The timely diagnosis of a ruptured aortic aneurysm can be challenging for the emergency physician when hoarseness of voice is the only presenting symptom. Ortner's syndrome was first reported in 1897 as a case of left recurrent laryngeal nerve paralysis secondary to mitral stenosis and left atrial enlargement. In this case report, we describe a unique association of aortic aneurysm rupture with dysphonia presenting as Ortner's syndrome. CASE REPORT: An 81-year-old man presented to our emergency department (ED) with an acute hoarse voice. Physical examination of his cardiovascular and neurologic systems was normal. Further evaluation with a nasoendoscope revealed a left vocal cord palsy. Consideration of Ortner's syndrome prompted an early call for thoracic imaging. A computed tomogram of the aorta showed a contained aortic aneurysm rupture with an acute hyperdense periaortic hematoma at the aortic arch. As our patient was a poor surgical candidate in view of concurrent comorbidities, he was managed conservatively. WHY SHOULD AN EMERGENCY PHYSICIAN BE AWARE OF THIS?: We identified a unique presentation of a painless, ruptured aortic aneurysm. This is a fatal diagnosis that all emergency physicians struggle to make in a timely fashion. The imminent aortic aneurysm rupture, masked by the absence of pain in our patient, could have resulted in a potentially catastrophic event. In the evaluation of a patient with hoarse voice, early consideration of Ortner's syndrome could result in timely diagnosis of a ruptured aortic aneurysm.

Hypoglycemic cardiac arrest and rapid return-of-spontaneous circulation (ROSC) with dextrose.

Hypoglycemia was part of the "H's and T's" in the 2005 American Heart Association ACLS guidelines for reversible causes of cardiac arrest but was removed in subsequent editions. We present a case of return of spontaneous circulation in a patient with cardiac arrest after administration of dextrose for hypoglycemia. Routine administration of dextrose to patients in cardiac arrest has been shown to be associated with increased mortality and worse neurological outcomes. However, this case reminds the clinician to consider hypoglycemia in patients with cardiac arrest, and to attempt correcting a low blood glucose if noted.

Nationwide trends in residential and non-residential out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and differences in bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

AIMS: Singapore is highly-urbanized, with >90% of the population living in high-rise apartments. She has implemented several city-wide interventions such as dispatcher-assisted CPR, community CPR training and smartphone activation of volunteers to increase bystander CPR (BCPR) rates for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). These may have different impact on residential and non-residential OHCA. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics, processes-of-care and outcome differences between residential and non-residential OHCA and study the differences in temporal trends of BCPR rates. METHODS: This was a national, observational study in Singapore from 2010 to 2016, using data from the prospective Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study. The primary outcome was survival (to-discharge or to-30-days). Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the effect of location-type on survival and a test of statistical interaction was performed to assess the difference in the temporal relationship of BCPR rates between location-type. RESULTS: 8397 cases qualified for analysis, of which 5990 (71.3%) were residential. BCPR and bystander automated external defibrillator (AED) rates were significantly lower in residential as compared to non-residential arrests (41.0% vs 53.6%, p < 0.01; 0.4% vs 10.8%, p < 0.01 respectively). Residential BCPR increased from 15.8% (2010) to 57.1% (2016). Residential cardiac arrests had lower survival-to-discharge (2.9% vs 10.1%, p < 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that location-type had an independent effect on survival, with residential arrests having poorer survival compared to non-residential cardiac arrests (adjusted OR 0.547 [0.435-0.688]). A test of statistical interaction showed a significant interaction effect between year and location-type for bystander CPR, with a narrowing of differences in bystander CPR between residential and non-residential cardiac arrests over the years. CONCLUSION: Residential cardiac arrests had poorer bystander intervention and survival from 2010 to 2016 in Singapore. BCPR had improved more in residential arrests compared to non-residential arrests over a period of city-wide interventions to improve BCPR.

Development of a delayed chronic subdural hematoma 2 months after mild traumatic brain injury with a normal initial brain computed tomography: A case report.

This is a case involving the development of a delayed chronic subdural hematoma 2 months after a minor head injury with normal clinical neurological findings and brain computed tomography at initial presentation. An 84-year-old man visited the emergency department (ED) after a minor head trauma. The patient complained of dizziness and vomiting 8 hours after an injury. He was not on an antiplatelet or anticoagulant. He did not have any abnormal findings during neurological examination, and brain computed tomography did not show any intracranial pathology or skull fractures. He was admitted to the ED short-stay ward for observation and was discharged asymptomatic and stable 12 hours later. However, he presented 2 months later with dizziness and unsteady gait. He was asymptomatic within those 2 months. At the ED, his brain computed tomography showed a large right chronic subdural hematoma, compressing the right lateral and third ventricles, with a 1.2 cm midline shift, subfalcine and uncal herniations, and early hydrocephalus. An emergency burr-hole evacuation was performed. He was discharged without neurological deficit 3 days later. Emergency physicians attending to patients with normal neurologic examination and initial brain computed tomography after suffering a mild traumatic brain injury should be vigilant for a chronic subdural hematoma should the patient re-present for evaluation subsequently. The attending physician may be biased as patients could have symptoms attributed to postconcussion syndrome that may overlap with symptoms of chronic subdural hematoma. Unsteady gait and ataxia are uncommon clinical signs of postconcussion syndrome and should prompt the physician to consider a repeat brain computed tomography.

Effectiveness of a community based out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) interventional bundle: Results of a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: 70% of Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in Singapore occur in residential areas, and are associated with poorer outcomes. We hypothesized that an interventional bundle consisting of Save-A-life (SAL) initiative (cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)/automated external defibrillator (AED) training and public-housing AED installation), dispatcher-assisted CPR (DA-CPR) program and myResponder (mobile application) will improve OHCA survival. METHODS: This is pilot data from initial implementation of a stepped-wedge, before-after, real-world interventional bundle in six selected regions. Under the SAL initiative, 30,000 individuals were CPR/AED trained, with 360 AEDs installed. Data was obtained from Singapore's national OHCA Registry. We included all adult patients who experienced OHCA in Singapore from 2011 to 2016 within study regions, excluding EMS-witnessed cases and cases due to trauma/drowning/ electrocution. Cases occurring before and after intervention were allocated as control and intervention groups respectively. Survival was assessed via multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: 1241 patients were included for analysis (Intervention: 361; Control: 880). The intervention group had higher mean age (70 vs 67 years), survival (3.3% [12/361] vs. 2.2% [19/880]), pre-hospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (9.1% [33/361] vs 5.1% [45/880]), bystander CPR (63.7% [230/361] vs 44.8% [394/880]) and bystander AED application (2.8% [10/361] vs 1.1% [10/880]). After adjusting for age, gender, race and significant covariates, the intervention was associated with increased odds ratio (OR) for survival (OR 2.39 [1.02-5.62]), pre-hospital ROSC (OR 1.94 [1.15-3.25]) and bystander CPR (OR 2.29 [1.77-2.96]). CONCLUSION: The OHCA interventional bundle (SAL initiative, DA-CPR, myResponder) significantly improved survival and is being scaled up as a national program.

Comparison of Outcomes and Characteristics of Emergency Medical Services (EMS)-Witnessed, Bystander-Witnessed, and Unwitnessed Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests in Singapore.

Objectives: The objective was to compare the survival outcomes of emergency medical services (EMS)-witnessed to bystander-witnessed, and unwitnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in Singapore. Secondary aims are to describe the 5-year trend in survival rates of EMS-witnessed arrests. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of the Singapore's OHCA registry data from 2011 to 2015. Excluded from the analysis were patients younger than 18 years old, arrests of traumatic etiology, resuscitation not attempted, and cases not conveyed by EMS. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge or 30 days post-arrest. Secondary outcomes were return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival to hospital admission. Results: 8,394 cases were analyzed, with 650 (7.7%) EMS-witnessed arrests, 4480 (53.4%) bystander-witnessed arrests, and 3264 (38.9%) unwitnessed arrests. Among EMS-witnessed arrests, the majority were presumed to be of cardiac etiology (62.8%) and the most common presenting rhythm was pulseless electrical activity (PEA; 57.2%). Survival to discharge or 30th day post-arrest was higher in EMS-witnessed arrests compared to bystander-witnessed and unwitnessed arrests (11.2% vs. 5.3% and 1.3%, p < 0.001). Survival to discharge for EMS-witnessed cases increased from 2011 (13.2%) to 2015 (18.9%). Conclusions: EMS-witnessed OHCAs were more likely to have favorable outcomes compared to bystander-witnessed and unwitnessed OHCAs. High PEA rates in EMS-witnessed arrests were associated with older patients with underlying preexisting medical conditions. Increasing public awareness on recognition of prodromal symptoms and early activation of EMS could improve post-arrest survival and neurological outcomes of OHCA.

Ethnic and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Differences In Incidence and Survival From Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest In Singapore.

Objective: We aimed to examine the association of ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) with Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) incidence and 30-day survival in Singapore. Methods: We analyzed the Singapore cohort of Pan-Asia Resuscitation Outcome Study (PAROS), a multi-center, prospective OHCA registry between 2010 and 2015. The Singapore Socioeconomic Disadvantage Index (SEDI) score, obtained according to zip code, was used as surrogate for neighborhood SES. Age-adjusted OHCA incidence and Utstein survival were calculated by ethnicity and SES. Utstein survival was defined as the number of cardiac OHCA cases with initial rhythm of ventricular fibrillation witnessed by a bystander who survived 30-days or until hospital discharge. Logistic regression was used to investigate association of ethnicity with 30-day and Utstein survivals. Results: Our study population comprised 8,900 patients: 6,453 Chinese, 1,472 Malays, and 975 Indians. The overall age-adjusted incidence ratios (95% CI) for Malay/Chinese and Indian/Chinese were 1.93 (1.83-2.04) and 1.95 (1.83-2.08), respectively. The overall age-adjusted incidence ratios (95% CI) for average/low and high/low SEDI group were 1.12 (0.95-1.33) and 1.29 (1.08-1.53), respectively. Malay showed lesser Utstein survival of 8.1% compared to Chinese (14.6%) and Indian (20.4%) [p = 0.018]. Ethnicity did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.072) in forward selection model of Utstein survival, while SEDI score and category were not significant (p > 0.2 and p = 0.349). Conclusions: We found Malay and Indian communities to be at higher risks of OHCA compared to Chinese, and additionally, the Malay community is at higher risk of subsequent mortality than the Chinese and Indian communities. These disparities were not explained by neighborhood SES.

Characteristics and outcomes of young adults who suffered an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).

BACKGROUND: There is paucity of data examining the incidence and outcomes of young OHCA adults. The aim of this study is to determine the outcomes and characteristics of young adults who suffered an OHCA and identify factors that are associated with favourable neurologic outcomes. METHODS: All EMS-attended OHCA adults between the ages of 16 and 35 years in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS) registry were analysed. The primary outcome was favourable neurologic outcome (Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2) at hospital discharge or at 30th day post OHCA if not discharged. Regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with favourable neurologic outcomes. RESULTS: 66,780 OHCAs were collected between January 2009 and December 2013; 3244 young OHCAs had resuscitation attempted by emergency medical services (EMS). 56.8% of patients had unwitnessed arrest; 47.9% were of traumatic etiology. 17.2% of patients (95% CI: 15.9-18.5%) had return of spontaneous circulation; 7.8% (95% CI: 6.9-8.8%) survived to one month; 4.6% (95% CI: 4.0-5.4%) survived with favourable neurologic outcomes. Factors associated with favourable neurologic outcomes include witnessed arrest (adjusted RR=2.42, p-value<0.0001), bystander CPR (adjusted RR=1.57, p-value=0.004), first arrest shockable rhythm (adjusted RR=27.24, p-value<0.0001), and cardiac etiology (adjusted RR=3.99, p-value<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: OHCA among young adults are not uncommon. Traumatic OHCA, occurring most frequently in young adults had dismal prognosis. First arrest rhythms of VF/VT/unknown shockable rhythm, cardiac etiology, bystander-witnessed arrest, and bystander CPR were associated with favourable neurological outcomes. The results of the study would be useful for planning preventive and interventional strategies, improving EMS, and guiding future research.

Conversion to shockable rhythms during resuscitation and survival for out-of hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: In out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), the prognostic influence of conversion to shockable rhythms during resuscitation for initially non-shockable rhythms remains unknown. This study aimed to assess the relationship between initial and subsequent shockable rhythm and post-arrest survival and neurological outcomes after OHCA. METHODOLOGY: This was a retrospective analysis of all OHCA cases collected from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS) registry in 7 countries in Asia between 2009 and 2012. We included OHCA cases of presumed cardiac etiology, aged 18-years and above and resuscitation attempted by EMS. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the relationship between initial and subsequent shockable rhythm and survival and neurological outcomes. 2-stage seemingly unrelated bivariate probit models were developed to jointly model the survival and neurological outcomes. We adjusted for the clustering effects of country variance in all models. RESULTS: 40,160 OHCA cases met the inclusion criteria. There were 5356 OHCA cases (13.3%) with initial shockable rhythm and 33,974 (84.7%) with initial non-shockable rhythm. After adjustment of baseline and prehospital characteristics, OHCA with initial shockable rhythm (odds ratio/OR=6.10, 95% confidence interval/CI=5.06-7.34) and subsequent conversion to shockable rhythm (OR=2.00,95%CI=1.10-3.65) independently predicted better survival-to-hospital-discharge outcomes. Subsequent shockable rhythm conversion significantly improved survival-to-admission, discharge and post-arrest overall and cerebral performance outcomes in the multivariate logistic regression and 2-stage analyses. CONCLUSION: Initial shockable rhythm was the strongest predictor for survival. However, conversion to subsequent shockable rhythm significantly improved post-arrest survival and neurological outcomes. This study suggests the importance of early resuscitation efforts even for initially non-shockable rhythms which has prognostic implications and selection of subsequent post-resuscitation therapy.