Aligning Event Logs to Task-Time Matrix Clinical Pathways in BPMN for Variance Analysis.

Clinical pathways (CPs) are popular healthcare management tools to standardize care and ensure quality. Analyzing CP compliance levels and variances is known to be useful for training and CP redesign purposes. Flexible semantics of the business process model and notation (BPMN) language has been shown to be useful for the modeling and analysis of complex protocols. However, in practical cases one may want to exploit that CPs often have the form of task-time matrices. This paper presents a new method parsing complex BPMN models and aligning traces to the models heuristically. A case study on variance analysis is undertaken, where a CP from the practice and two large sets of patients data from an electronic medical record (EMR) database are used. The results demonstrate that automated variance analysis between BPMN task-time models and real-life EMR data are feasible, whereas that was not the case for the existing analysis techniques. We also provide meaningful insights for further improvement.

Association Patterns of Ontological Features Signify Electronic Health Records in Liver Cancer.

Electronic Health Record (EHR) system enables clinical decision support. In this study, a set of 112 abdominal computed tomography imaging examination reports, consisting of 59 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or liver metastases (so-called HCC group for simplicity) and 53 cases with no abnormality detected (NAD group), were collected from four hospitals in Hong Kong. We extracted terms related to liver cancer from the reports and mapped them to ontological features using Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) Clinical Terms (CT). The primary predictor panel was formed by these ontological features. Association levels between every two features in the HCC and NAD groups were quantified using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The HCC group reveals a distinct association pattern that signifies liver cancer and provides clinical decision support for suspected cases, motivating the inclusion of new features to form the augmented predictor panel. Logistic regression analysis with stepwise forward procedure was applied to the primary and augmented predictor sets, respectively. The obtained model with the new features attained 84.7% sensitivity and 88.4% overall accuracy in distinguishing HCC from NAD cases, which were significantly improved when compared with that without the new features.

Imbalanced target prediction with pattern discovery on clinical data repositories.

BACKGROUND: Clinical data repositories (CDR) have great potential to improve outcome prediction and risk modeling. However, most clinical studies require careful study design, dedicated data collection efforts, and sophisticated modeling techniques before a hypothesis can be tested. We aim to bridge this gap, so that clinical domain users can perform first-hand prediction on existing repository data without complicated handling, and obtain insightful patterns of imbalanced targets for a formal study before it is conducted. We specifically target for interpretability for domain users where the model can be conveniently explained and applied in clinical practice. METHODS: We propose an interpretable pattern model which is noise (missing) tolerant for practice data. To address the challenge of imbalanced targets of interest in clinical research, e.g., deaths less than a few percent, the geometric mean of sensitivity and specificity (G-mean) optimization criterion is employed, with which a simple but effective heuristic algorithm is developed. RESULTS: We compared pattern discovery to clinically interpretable methods on two retrospective clinical datasets. They contain 14.9% deaths in 1 year in the thoracic dataset and 9.1% deaths in the cardiac dataset, respectively. In spite of the imbalance challenge shown on other methods, pattern discovery consistently shows competitive cross-validated prediction performance. Compared to logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, and decision tree, pattern discovery achieves statistically significant (p-values < 0.01, Wilcoxon signed rank test) favorable averaged testing G-means and F1-scores (harmonic mean of precision and sensitivity). Without requiring sophisticated technical processing of data and tweaking, the prediction performance of pattern discovery is consistently comparable to the best achievable performance. CONCLUSIONS: Pattern discovery has demonstrated to be robust and valuable for target prediction on existing clinical data repositories with imbalance and noise. The prediction results and interpretable patterns can provide insights in an agile and inexpensive way for the potential formal studies.