Climate regime shifts and biodiversity redistribution in the Bay of Biscay.

Global ocean warming, wave extreme events, and accelerating sea-level rise are challenges that coastal communities must address to anticipate damages in coming decades. The objective of this study is to undertake a time-series analysis of climate change (CC) indicators within the Bay of Biscay, including the Basque coast. We used an integrated and flexible methodology, based on Generalized Additive Mixed Models, to detect trends on 19 indicators (including marine physics, chemistry, atmosphere, hydrology, geomorphology, biodiversity, and commercial species). The results of 87 long-term time series analysed (~512,000 observations), in the last four decades, indicate four groups of climate regime shifts: 1) A gradual shift associated with CC starting in the 1980s, with a warming of the sea surface down to 100 m depth in the bay (0.10-0.25 °C per decade), increase in air temperature and insolation. This warming may have impacted on benthic community redistribution in the Basque coast, favouring warm-water species relative to cold-water species. Weight at age for anchovy and sardine decreased in the last two decades. 2) Deepening of the winter mixed layer depth in the south-eastern bay that probably led to increases in nutrients, surface oxygen, and chlorophyll concentration. Current increases on chlorophyll and zooplankton (i.e., copepods) biomass are contrary to those expected under CC scenarios in the region. 3) Sea-level rise (1.5-3.5 cm per decade since 1990s), associated with CC. 4) Increase of extreme wave height events of 16.8 cm per decade in the south-eastern bay, probably related to stormy conditions in the last decade, with impacts on beach erosion. Estimating accurate rates of sea warming, sea-level rise, extreme events, and foreseeing the future pathways of marine productivity, are key to define the best adaptation measures to minimize negative CC impacts in the region.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

Phenological changes in the Northwestern Mediterranean copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera linked to climate forcing.

Planktonic copepods play a major role in the fluxes of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem, provide a biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, and play a role in determining fish recruitment. Owing to such ecological considerations, it is essential to understand the role that climate might play in the interannual variability of these organisms and the mechanisms by which it could modify the ecosystem functioning. In this study, a causal chain of meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was identified in the Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean. The forcing by the NAO drives most of the hydro-climatic variability during winter and early spring. Subsequently, interannual and decadal changes of the dominant copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera were significantly correlated to the state of the hydro-climatic signal and tightly coupled to the NAO. Direct and indirect effects whose influence promoted phenological changes in the two copepod populations drove the species' responses to climatic forcing. Opposite responses of the analysed species were also highlighted by these results. While years characterized by the positive phase of the NAO leads to enhancement of the strength and the forward move of the C. typicus peak, they act negatively on the annual cycle of T. stylifera, the abundance of which drops twofold and the annual peak appears delayed in time. In contrast, low NAO years lead to high abundance of T. stylifera and a forward timing of its peak, and acts in turn negatively on the C. typicus annual cycle in both abundance (low) and timing (delayed). Owing to the synchronism between hydro-climatic conditions and the NAO, and the major role of these species in the pelagic ecosystem of the studied area, these results provide key elements for interpreting and forecasting decadal changes of planktonic populations in the Ligurian Sea.