Investigation of trace elements in soil as risk factors in the epidemiology of scrapie.

Scrapie is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of sheep and goats which is thought to be caused by a conformational change of the normal prion protein to its pathological isoform. It has been speculated that this change may be mediated by an interaction between the prion protein and various trace elements, in particular manganese and copper, and that the levels of trace elements in soils may therefore be risk factors for TSEs. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the level of trace elements in the soils on farms with and without scrapie and on those with a higher and lower incidence of the disease. The levels of trace elements were obtained from the UK's National Soil Inventory and deficiencies reported by farmers. The results provide no evidence that trace elements are risk factors for scrapie on farms, and the variations in the levels of trace elements in soils at regional scales do not account for the regional differences in the prevalence of scrapie.

Epidemiological implications of the susceptibility to BSE of putatively resistant sheep.

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious pound 120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

Attempted mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by biting insects.

The mosquitoes Anopheles stephensi Liston and Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae), the stable fly Stomoxys calcitrans Linnaeus (Diptera: Muscidae) and the biting midge Culicoides nubeculosus Meigen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were allowed to feed on either lumpy skin disease (LSD) infected animals or through a membrane on a bloodmeal containing lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). These arthropods were then allowed to refeed on susceptible cattle at various intervals after the infective feed. Virus was detected in the insects by polymerase chain reaction immediately after feeding and at sufficiently high titre to enable transmission to occur. However, no transmission of virus from infected to susceptible animals by An. stephensi, S. calcitrans, C. nubeculosus and Cx. quinquefasciatus was observed.

The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep.

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

Mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus by Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes are capable of the mechanical transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) from infected to susceptible cattle. Mosquitoes that had fed upon lesions of LSDV-infected cattle were able to transmit virus to susceptible cattle over a period of 2-6 days post-infective feeding. Virus was isolated from the recipient animals in 5 out of 7 cases. The clinical disease recorded in the animals exposed to infected mosquitoes was generally of a mild nature, with only one case being moderate. LSDV has long been suspected to be insect transmitted, but these findings are the first to demonstrate this unequivocally, and they suggest that mosquito species are competent vectors.