ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217 is a promising biomarker for Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis, but its clinical implementation remains challenging. We propose a strategy based on Bayes' theorem and test it in real-life memory clinics. METHODS: Memory clinic patients were evaluated by neurocognitive specialists for prespecified diagnosis and subsequently underwent blood collection for p-tau217, cerebrospinal fluid, or amyloid positron emission tomography. Using cross-validation, the Bayesian approach (pretest probability × individualized likelihood ratio) was compared to other models for AD diagnosis. RESULTS: The Bayesian strategy demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.0), significantly outperforming multivariable logistic regression (p-tau217, age, apolipoprotein E; AUC 0.95, p = 0.024) and p-tau217 alone (AUC = 0.94, p = 0.007). When applying the two-threshold approach, the Bayesian strategy yielded an accuracy of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.88-1.0) without requiring confirmatory tests in 62.9% of the iterations. DISCUSSION: The Bayesian strategy offers an effective and flexible approach to address the limitations of plasma p-tau217 in clinical practice. HIGHLIGHTS: Incorporating pretest probability into the interpretation of plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217 improves the diagnostic performance significantly. The strategy could obviate the need for confirmatory testing in most of the patients. Plasma p-tau217 proves useful as a biomarker for Alzheimer's disease in low- and middle-income country such as Thailand.
ABSTRACT
The lack of a dedicated surveillance program for prion disease, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), has hindered the global effort to address this public health threat. Although cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) is considered the most reliable test for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), its availability in LMICs is limited because of its cost and technical difficulty in generating the recombinant prion protein substrate (recPrP). This study aimed to evaluate the performance of RT-QuIC with recPrP produced in-house through a small-scale method-that is, the application of reusable prepacked chromatography columns and subsequent dialysis. Here, CSF specimens from patients suspected of having prion disease were consecutively collected and stored between October 2015 and January 2023. Electronic medical record data were reviewed to clinically classify participants as probable sCJD or non-sCJD. CSF RT-QuIC was performed using in-house recPrP. Its specificity and sensitivity for diagnosing probable sCJD were reported, along with details of other clinical data and investigations. We found that among 39 eligible participants, with a median (interquartile range) age of 64 (56-70) years and 16 (41%) female, 13 had probable sCJD and the remaining 26 unequivocally suffered from nonprion disorders. Magnetic resonance imaging and electroencephalogram were suggestive of sCJD in 100% (13/13) and 46.2% (6/13) of sCJD participants, respectively. RT-QuIC was positive in 12/13 sCJD participants (sensitivity 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.99) and negative in all non-sCJD participants (specificity 1.00, 95% CI 0.87-1.00). CSF tau/p-tau ratio showed sensitivity and specificity of 0.62-1.0 and 0.85-1.0, respectively. In summary, RT-QuIC using recPrP generated through a small-scale workflow demonstrated great performance in detecting sCJD. Given its performance results along with its low cost, this technique could feasibly be implemented in LMICs and potentially be the first step toward establishing local prion disease surveillance programs.
