The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust.

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.

Effects of non-invasive brain stimulation on visual perspective taking: A meta-analytic study.

Visual perspective taking (VPT) is a critical ability required by complex social interaction. Non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) has been increasingly used to examine the causal relationship between brain activity and VPT, yet with heterogeneous results. In the current study, we conducted two meta-analyses to examine the effects of NIBS of the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) or dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) on VPT, respectively. We performed a comprehensive literature search to identify qualified studies and computed the standardized effect size (ES) for each combination of VPT level (Level-1: visibility judgment; Level-2: mental rotation) and perspective (self and other). Thirteen studies (rTPJ: 12 studies, 23 ESs; dmPFC: 4 studies, 14 ESs) were included in the meta-analyses. Random-effects models were used to generate the overall effects. Subgroup analyses for distinct VPT conditions were also performed. We found that rTPJ stimulation significantly improved participants' visibility judgment from the allocentric perspective, whereas its effects on other VPT conditions are negligible. Stimulation of dmPFC appeared to influence Level-1 performance from the egocentric perspective, although this finding was only based on a small number of studies. Notably, contrary to some theoretical models, we did not find strong evidence that these regions are involved in Level-2 VPT with a higher requirement of mental rotation. These findings not only advance our understanding of the causal roles of the rTPJ and dmPFC in VPT, but also reveal that the efficacy of NIBS on VPT is relatively small. Additionally, researchers should also be cautious about the potential publication bias and selective reporting.