Ovarian Cancer Incidence in the Multi-Ethnic Asian City-State of Singapore 1968-2012.

PURPOSE: We investigate ovarian cancer incidence between 1968 and 2012 in Singapore, a multiethnic Asian city state. METHODS: Aggregated data of ovarian epithelial cancer numbers and estimated person-years from 1968 to 2012 were obtained from Singapore Cancer Registry. Age-Period-Cohort modelling was performed. RESULTS: The age-standardised incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased from 5.8 to 12.5 per 100,000 per year between 1968 and 2012, while the age-standardised mortality rate has remained stable. This increase was higher among Malays (5.1 to 14.0 per 100,000 per year), compared to Chinese and Indians.  Serous carcinoma showed the greatest increase in incidence from 0.4 to 3.4 per 100,000 per year.  Period effects were seen in the ovarian cancer incidence trend in Chinese women, but not Malay and Indian women. Clear cell and mucinous carcinoma subtypes were more common in Chinese than in Malay and Indian women. Stage at diagnosis for the years 2003-2010 differed by subtype, and the majority of patients with serous carcinomas presented at a later stage compared to those with clear cell or mucinous carcinomas. CONCLUSION: Ovarian cancer incidence rates have doubled in 40 years in Singapore. There were ethnic differences in incidence rates and ovarian cancer subtypes.

Incidence, risk factors and outcomes of malignancies after kidney transplantation in Singapore: a 12-year experience.

INTRODUCTION: Data on malignancy after kidney transplantation (KTX) is limited in our region, leading to challenges in the care of renal allograft recipients. We aimed to examine the epidemiology, risk factors and outcomes of post-KTX patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 491 patients who underwent KTX from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2011. Data linkage analysis was done between our centre and the National Registry of Diseases Office to determine the standardised incidence ratio (SIR), standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and risk factors for malignancy after KTX. RESULTS: 31 patients (61.3% male) developed malignancy during this period, and their median age at diagnosis was 50 (range 18-65) years. Median time to malignancy diagnosis was 2.6 (range 0.3-7.9) years, with cumulative incidence of 1%, 4% and 10% at one, five and ten years, respectively. The commonest malignancy type was lymphoma, followed by kidney cancer, colorectal cancer and malignancy of the male genital organs. Multivariate analysis identified cyclosporine use as an independent risk factor for malignancy. Compared to the general population, KTX recipients had higher malignancy and mortality rates after malignancy diagnosis (SIR 3.36; SMR 9.45). Survival rates for KTX recipients with malignancy versus those without malignancy were 100%, 93% and 64% versus 97%, 93% and 83% at one, five and ten years, respectively. CONCLUSION: KTX was associated with higher mortality and incidence of malignancy. Newer immunosuppressive agents and induction therapies were not found to be risk factors for malignancy, possibly due to our relatively small sample size.

Reproductive factors, obesity and risk of colorectal cancer in a cohort of Asian women.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated reproductive factors and obesity in relation to colorectal cancer (CRC) in Asian women. METHODS: The study cohort comprised 28191 women who were recruited between 1994 and 1997. During 18 years of prospective follow-up, 404 and 212 women developed colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC) respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used. RESULTS: Menstrual factors were not related to the risk of CRC, CC and RC. Gravidity and parity were not associated with CRC or RC, but women who were ever pregnant had a HR of 1.87 (95%CI 1.12-3.14) compared to those never pregnant, and parous women had a HR of 1.79 (95% CI 1.10-2.92) compared to nulliparous women for CC. Use of oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy were not associated with CRC, CC or RC. Compared to women with normal BMI, women who were obese had HRs of 1.39 (95%CI 1.12-1.74) and 1.64 (95%CI 1.24-2.16) for CRC and CC respectively. No increased risk was seen for RC. Adjusted for BMI, for colonic cancer, women in the highest quartile for Waist Circumference had a HR of 2.14 (95%CI 1.42-3.25) compared to the lowest quartile, for Waist Hip Ratio, a HR of 1.74 (95%CI 1.30-2.34), and for Waist-Height ratio, a HR of 1.80 (1.26-2.57). None of these measures were significantly associated with RC. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is positively associated with CC but not RC, and abdominal obesity exerts an independent effect. Reproductive factors had at best a weak effect on CC and RC.

Selection and Short-Term Outcomes of Living Kidney Donors in Singapore - An Analysis of the Donor Care Registry.

INTRODUCTION: Transplant rates in Singapore have been falling and there is limited information on baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of living kidney donors nationally. This study aimed to determine the safety of living kidney donor transplant in Singapore by exploring the proportion of donors that meets international selection guidelines and describing short-term clinical outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed 472 donors who underwent nephrectomies from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014 from the Donor Care Registry. We described donor characteristics against 5 international guidelines and measured post-nephrectomy outcomes in 150 local donors for up to 24 months. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine the baseline variables associated with poorer outcomes. RESULTS: There were more foreign than local donors, with differences in gender and hospital types. Selection was generally aligned with international recommendations although 3.0% (using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology [CKD-EPI] equation) to 8.5% (using radionuclide and creatinine clearance methods) of donors had inappropriate baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) forage. Post-procedure, many foreign donors were lost to follow-up. Over 24 months, eGFR decreased by 33.8% from baseline before recovering gradually to 29.6%. During this period, only 2 donors were admitted for renal or urological conditions and there were no cases of end-stage renal failure or deaths. A lower baseline eGFR (HR: 1.05; 95% Cl, 1.02 to 1.09) and older age (HR: 1.04; 95% Cl, 1.00 to 1.08) were associated with a post-nephrectomy eGFR of less than 60 mL/kg/1.73 m2. CONCLUSION: Kidney donation is safe in Singapore. Donor selection is in keeping with international guidelines and short-term outcomes are comparable to other cohorts.

Comparative analysis of recurrent events after presentation with an index myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke.

Aims: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke are important causes of mortality and morbidity. Our aims are to determine the comparative epidemiology of AMI and ischaemic stroke; and examine the differences in cardiovascular outcomes or mortality occurring after an AMI or stroke. Methods and results: The Singapore National Registry of Diseases Office collects countrywide data on AMI, stroke, and mortality. Index events of AMI and ischaemic stroke between 2007 and 2012 were identified. Patients were then matched for occurrences of subsequent AMI, stroke, or death within 1-year of the index event. There were 33 222 patients with first-ever AMI and 20 982 with first-ever stroke. AMI patients were significantly more likely to be men (66.3% vs. 56.9%), non-Chinese (32.1% vs. 24.1%), and smokers (43.1% vs. 38.6%), but less likely to have hypertension (65.6% vs. 79%) and hyperlipidaemia (61.1% vs. 65.5%), compared with stroke patients. In total 6.8% of the AMI patients had recurrent AMI, whereas 4.8% of the stroke patients had recurrent stroke within 1 year; 31.7% of the AMI patients died, whereas 17.1% of the ischaemic stroke patients died within 1 year. Older age, Malay ethnicity, and diabetes mellitus were statistically significant risk factors for all-cause mortality and for the composite endpoint of AMI, stroke, and all-cause mortality, at 1 year. Conclusions: Risk profiles of patients with AMI and stroke are significantly different. Patients suffer recurrent events in vascular territories similar to the index event. Age and diabetes mellitus are significant predictors of recurrent vascular events and mortality.

Age-dependent relationships between body mass index and mortality: Singapore longitudinal ageing study.

OBJECTIVES: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) with mortality risk, in particular the BMI category associated with the lowest all-cause and CVD-and-stroke mortality and the BMI threshold for defining overweight or obesity in older persons is controversial. This study investigated the age-dependent associations of BMI categories with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke mortality. METHOD: Prospective cohort study (Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Studies) of older adults aged 55 and above, followed up from 2003 to 2011. Participants were 2605 Chinese with baseline BMI and other variables. Outcome Measurement: Mortality hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and CVD and stroke mortality. RESULTS: Overall, BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with all-cause and CVD and stroke mortality, being lowest at Normal Weight-II category (BMI 23.0-24.9 kg/m2). Most evidently among the middle-aged (55-64 years), all-cause mortality risks relative to Normal Weight-II were elevated for underweight (30.0; HR = 4.05,p = 0.0423). Among the old (≥65 years), however, Overweight and Obese categories were not significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR from 0.98 to 1.29), but Overweight-Obese was associated with increased CVD and stroke mortality (HR = 10.0, p = 0.0086). CONCLUSION: BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Among older persons aged 65 and above, the overweight-or-obese category of BMI was not associated with excess all-cause mortality.

Timing of commencement of maintenance dialysis and mortality in young and older adults in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of early dialysis initiation remains controversial with a paucity of data in Asians. Therefore, we undertook this study to investigate the association between timing of initiation of dialysis and mortality in Singapore. METHODS: The study used data from the Singapore Renal Registry database on 3286 patients with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who commenced maintenance dialysis between January 2008 and December 2011. The data was further linked with the National Death Registry to acquire survival information until December 2013. We classified serum creatinine-based, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation at the start of dialysis into 3 categories: Early (≥10 ml/min/1.73m2), intermediate (5 to <10 ml/min/1.73m2) and late (<5 ml/min/1.73m2). RESULTS: In the unadjusted analysis, both early and intermediate dialysis initiation groups were at greater risk of death relative to late dialysis (Early: HR = 2.47; Intermediate: HR = 1.54). In the multivariate model, a significant interaction was detected between age and eGFR at dialysis initiation (p = 0.04). Adjusted mortality risk progressively increased with earlier initiation of dialysis for patients aged 18-54 years (p = 0.006) and aged 55 to 64 years (p < 0.001), and no statistically significant difference was observed for patients aged 65 years or older (p = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Early versus later initiation of dialysis was associated with significantly higher risk of mortality in Singapore's non-elderly population, and appeared to offer no survival advantage among the elderly.

Increased body mass index is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease in the Chinese Singapore population.

The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is confounded by co-morbidities associated with both conditions. Furthermore, the association at low range BMI is controversial. We studied this association in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based prospective cohort that recruited Singaporean Chinese men and women 45-74 years of age from 1993 to 1998. Self-reported weight, height, lifestyle factors, usual diet, and medical history were collected via an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Incident ESRD cases were identified via record linkage with the nationwide ESRD registry. The computed Cox proportional hazard regression was adjusted for potential risk factors. After an average follow-up of 15.5 years, 827 incident ESRD cases were identified. Compared with a normal BMI of 18.5 to under 23 kg/m2, the hazard ratios and (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD risk for BMIs under 18.5, 23 to under 27.5, and 27.5 kg/m2 or more were 0.54 (0.37-0.79), 1.40 (1.20-1.64) and 2.13 (1.74-2.59), respectively. This significantly trended, linear, dose-dependent association was only present among those with no history of diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke at baseline, but not significantly among those with any of these co-morbidities. Thus, BMI itself is a risk factor for ESRD in the general population and this association is present in those without pre-existing diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke.

Acute kidney injury increases the risk of end-stage renal disease after cardiac surgery in an Asian population: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The long-term association between AKI and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in an Asian population is unknown. Given the high prevalence of diabetes and a younger age of presentation for cardiac surgery, it is important to track this progression of kidney disease. Therefore, we studied the long-term risk of ESRD and mortality in our Asian patients who developed AKI after cardiac surgery. METHODS: With ethics approval, we prospectively recruited 3008 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in Singapore between 2008 and 2012, and followed them up till 2014. ESRD and mortality information were obtained from the Singapore Renal Registry and Singapore Registry of Births and Deaths respectively. AKI was defined using the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria, and ESRD was defined as stage 5 chronic kidney disease requiring renal replacement therapy. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze associations between AKI and the primary outcome of ESRD and the secondary outcome of death. RESULTS: The AKI incidence was 29.1%. During a mean follow-up of 4.4 ± 2.8 years, 0.9% developed ESRD. The hazard ratio (HR) for developing ESRD was 4.7 (95% C.I. = 1.736-12.603, p = 0.002) for AKIN stage 1 patients, and 5.8 (95% C.I. = 1.769-18.732, p = 0.004) for AKIN stage 2 and 3 patients; while the HR for mortality was 1.7 (95% C.I. = 1.165-2.571, p = 0.007) for AKIN stage 1 patients, and 2.5 (95% C.I. = 1.438-4.229, p < 0.001) for AKIN stage 2 and 3 patients. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is associated with ESRD and mortality after cardiac surgery in our Asian population. The trajectory from AKI to ESRD is rapid within 5 years of cardiac surgery. A concerted periodic follow-up assessment is advocated for AKI patients post-cardiac surgery.

Retinopathy Signs Improved Prediction and Reclassification of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

CVD risk prediction in diabetics is imperfect, as risk models are derived mainly from the general population. We investigate whether the addition of retinopathy and retinal vascular caliber improve CVD prediction beyond established risk factors in persons with diabetes. We recruited participants from the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SiMES, 2004-2006) and Singapore Prospective Study Program (SP2, 2004-2007), diagnosed with diabetes but no known history of CVD at baseline. Retinopathy and retinal vascular (arteriolar and venular) caliber measurements were added to risk prediction models derived from Cox regression model that included established CVD risk factors and serum biomarkers in SiMES, and validated this internally and externally in SP2. We found that the addition of retinal parameters improved discrimination compared to the addition of biochemical markers of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). This was even better when the retinal parameters and biomarkers were used in combination (C statistic 0.721 to 0.774, p = 0.013), showing improved discrimination, and overall reclassification (NRI = 17.0%, p = 0.004). External validation was consistent (C-statistics from 0.763 to 0.813, p = 0.045; NRI = 19.11%, p = 0.036). Our findings show that in persons with diabetes, retinopathy and retinal microvascular parameters add significant incremental value in reclassifying CVD risk, beyond established risk factors.

Deciphering the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma through the passage of time: A study of 1,401 patients across 3 decades.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and lethal cancers globally. With advances in therapy for chronic viral hepatitis, changing social circumstances, and increasing practice of HCC surveillance, the epidemiology of HCC is expected to change over time. We explored the temporal trends in HCC in Singapore, a multiethnic Asian country, over the last 3 decades. Patients with HCC were prospectively enrolled and stratified into two cohorts (C1, 1988-2002; C2, 2003-2016). Patient and tumor characteristics, management, and survival were compared between the two cohorts, and a survival census was performed on October 31, 2015. There were 1,401 patients, and the mean age at diagnosis of HCC for C1 and C2 was 60.1 and 63.5 years, respectively. Male patient preponderance decreased significantly, with the male to female ratio falling from 5.2:1 to 3.9:1 between C1 and C2. Hepatitis B, although still the predominant risk factor for HCC, showed a significant decline from C1 to C2 (76.5% to 68.2%), while the nonviral etiology increased significantly over the same period (14.4% versus 25.0%, respectively). Significantly more patients in C2 than C1 were diagnosed through surveillance (39.2% versus 11.3%, respectively) and had better physical performance (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0, 62.1% versus 20.4%, respectively). While Child-Pugh status was comparable, significantly more patients in C2 than C1 had early stage disease (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 0-A, 39.5% versus 7.4%, respectively), which translated into significantly higher median survival (18.6 months versus 3.8 months, respectively). Conclusion: Over the past 3 decades, hepatitis B-related HCC has been decreasing while HCC due to nonviral etiology has been increasing significantly. Surveillance to diagnose early stage HCC is important in improving the outcome of HCC. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:564-571).

Reperfusion treatment delays amongst patients with painless ST segment elevation myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: Early reperfusion therapy in the treatment of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients can improve outcomes. Silent myocardial infarction is associated with poor prognosis, but little is known about its effect on treatment delays. We aimed to characterize STEMI patients presenting without complaints of pain to the emergency departments (EDs) in Singapore. METHODS: Retrospective data were requested from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR), a national level registry in Singapore. Painless STEMI was defined as the absence of pain (chest, back, shoulder, jaw, and epigastric pain) during ED presentation. The primary outcome was door-to-balloon (D2B) time, defined as the earliest time a patient arrived in the ED to balloon inflation. Secondary outcomes were 1-month and 1-year mortality and occurrence of adverse events. RESULTS: From January 2010 to December 2012, the SMIR collected 6412 cases; 10.9% of patients presented without any pain. These patients were older (median age =75 v. 58 years old), more likely to be females (39.9% v. 16.1%), Chinese (74.9% v. 62.7%), obese (median body mass index [BMI] =24.5 v. 22.1), and with history of hypertension (71.1% v. 54.6%), diabetes mellitus (48.6% v. 37.0%), and acute myocardial infarction (20.0% v. 12.3%). They had a longer median D2B (80.5 v. 63 minutes, p<0.001) and a higher occurrence of 30-day (38.4% v. 5.7%) and 1-year mortality rates (47.3% v. 8.5%). CONCLUSION: A small proportion of STEMI patients presented without any pain to the ED. They tended to have a higher D2B and risks of mortality. Targeted effort is required to improve diagnostic and treatment efficiency in this group.

Symptom-to-door delay among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: Symptom-to-door time (S2D) is one of the important components of ischaemic time, which might affect the infarct size and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction. The aim of the present study was to identify patients' characteristics associated with delayed symptom-onset-to-arrival at EDs in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients in Singapore. METHODS: Retrospective data of STEMI patients presenting to the ED of all public hospitals with onsite primary percutaneous coronary intervention facilities between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry. Based on the S2D of 120 min, characteristics of patients were compared between short S2D (≤120 min) and long S2D (>120 min). Multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Out of 3848 patients, 1682 patients had an S2D of ≤120 min, and 2166 had an S2D >120 min. In the multivariate analyses, older age, Malay ethnicity, diabetes mellitus, presenting symptoms of back and epigastric pain were independently associated with long S2D. Patients who utilised the emergency medical services, presented after office hours and with symptoms of chest pain, breathlessness, diaphoresis and past history of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/primary percutaneous coronary intervention, were independently associated with short S2D. Patients with long S2D had lower probability of receiving reperfusion treatment with delayed symptom-to-balloon and door-to-balloon time and higher probabilities of complications and mortality. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that longer S2D was associated with older age, ethnicity, diabetes mellitus, delay in receiving early reperfusion treatment and poorer prognosis.

Red Meat Intake and Risk of ESRD.

Randomized controlled trials suggest that protein restriction may retard the progression of CKD toward ESRD. However, the effects of dietary protein intake level and the food sources of dietary protein on the risk of ESRD in the general population remain unclear. We investigated these effects in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective population-based cohort that recruited 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years from 1993 to 1998. We collected habitual diet information via a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and identified ESRD via record linkage with a nationwide registry. In all, 951 cases of ESRD occurred over a mean follow-up of 15.5 years. Regarding total protein intake, compared with the lowest quartile, the three higher quartiles combined had a hazard ratio for ESRD of 1.24 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.46), but the dose-dependent association across the quartiles was not statistically significant (Ptrend=0.16). Red meat intake strongly associated with ESRD risk in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratio for highest quartile versus lowest quartile,1.40 [95% CI, 1.15 to 1.71; Ptrend<0.001]). Intake of poultry, fish, eggs, or dairy products did not associate with risk of ESRD. In substitution analysis, replacing one serving of red meat with other food sources of protein associated with a maximum relative risk reduction of 62.4% (95% CI, 33.1 to 78.9; P<0.01). Our study shows that red meat intake may increase the risk of ESRD in the general population and substituting alternative sources of protein may reduce the incidence of ESRD.

30-year follow-up study of IgA nephritis in a Southeast Asian population: an evaluation of the Oxford histological classification
.

BACKGROUND: In 1985 we reported that 11% of a cohort of 151 patients with IgA nephritis (IgAN) had developed end-stage renal disease (ESRD) after a follow-up period of 5 years. 15 years later, 35% had developed ESRD. METHODS: We retrieved 125 stored renal biopsy paraffin blocks of the original cohort. From these, 102 patients were included in the present study and scored according to the Oxford classification as 21 specimens with less than 8 glomeruli were excluded and in 2 others, tissue samples were too tiny for a re-block. ESRD was ascertained by linking the study cohort to the Singapore Renal Registry at the National Registry of Diseases Office. RESULTS: Renal survival curves for each of the Oxford MEST lesions: endocapillary proliferation (E) (p < 0.04), segmental glomerulosclerosis (S) (p < 0.05), tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (p < 0.0001) were significantly associated with ESRD. Mesangial hypercellularity, less commonly associated with progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the study, was independently associated with ESRD at 30 years (p < 0.03). In this cohort, E and S were associated with lower eGFR at presentation and doubling of serum creatinine in the first 5 years. This study's initial 5 years was representative of the "natural history" of IgAN since no renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers or immunosuppression were administered. This represents the early phase of disease progression. E and S may be considered "early disease activity predictors". CONCLUSION: Mesangial hypercellularity and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (M1 and T1/T2 lesion) of the Oxford classification independently predicted long term ESRD.
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Data quality at the Singapore Cancer Registry: An overview of comparability, completeness, validity and timeliness.

AIM: To provide a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of the data at the Singapore Cancer Registry (SCR). METHODS: Quantitative and semi-quantitative methods were used to assess the comparability, completeness, accuracy and timeliness of data for the period of 1968-2013, with focus on the period 2008-2012. RESULTS: The SCR coding and classification systems follow international standards. The overall completeness was estimated at 98.1% using the flow method and 97.5% using the capture-recapture method, for the period of 2008-2012. For the same period, 91.9% of the cases were morphologically verified (site-specific range: 40.4-100%) with 1.1% DCO cases. The under-reporting in 2011 and 2012 due to timely publication was estimated at 0.03% and 0.51% respectively. CONCLUSION: This review shows that the processes in place at the SCR yields data which are internationally comparable, relatively complete, valid, and timely, allowing for greater confidence in the use of quality data in the areas of cancer prevention, treatment and control.

Joint Effect of Early Microvascular Damage in the Eye &Kidney on Risk of Cardiovascular Events.

Microalbuminuria is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but not all individuals require treatment. Retinal microvascular abnormalities and microalbuminuria reflect early systemic microvascular changes. We examined the joint effect of retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria on CVD risk in an Asian cohort. We conducted a prospective, population-based study. Retinal abnormalities were defined as presence of retinopathy and/or retinal venular widening. Microalbuminuria was defined as urinary albumin: creatinine ratio between 30-300 mg/g. Incident CVD was defined as newly diagnosed clinical stroke, acute myocardial infarction or CVD death. Cox regression models were performed to determine the associations between retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria with risk of CVD, while controlling for established risk factors. 3,496 participants (aged ≥ 40) were free of prevalent CVD. During the follow-up (5.8 years), 126 (3.60%) participants developed CVD. Persons presenting with both retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria were 6.71 times (95% CI, 2.68, 16.79) as likely to have incident CVD compared with those without either abnormalities. There was a significant interaction effect between retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria on incident CVD. Assessment of retinal abnormalities in patients with microalbuminuria may provide additional value in identifying persons at risk of developing CVD.

Buckling up in Singapore: residency and other risk factors for seatbelt non-compliance - a cross-sectional study based on trauma registry data.

BACKGROUND: Seatbelt non-compliance is a problem in middle income countries, and little is known about seatbelt compliance in populations with a high proportion of non-residents. This study analyses the profile of seatbelt non-compliance in Singapore based on trauma registry data from five of the six public hospitals. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of seatbelt compliance of patients aged over 18 years, attending the emergency departments of five public hospitals in Singapore after road collisions from 2011-2014. Seatbelt data was obtained from paramedic and patient history. RESULTS: There were 4,576 patients studied. Most were Singapore citizens (83.4 %) or permanent residents (2.4 %), with the largest non-resident groups from Malaysia, India, and China. Overall seatbelt compliance was 82.1 %. On univariate analysis, seatbelt compliance was higher in older patients (OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.001-1.021, p < 0.0001); drivers, followed by front passengers (OR 0.65, 95 % CI 0.51-0.83, p < 0.0001), were more compliant than rear passengers (OR 0.08, 0.06-0.09, p < 0.0001); occupants of larger vehicle types (buses, heavy transport vehicles, minibuses and vans) were more non-compliant compared to occupants of private cars and taxis. Morning peak travel (0700 h-0900 h) and being a non-resident were other risk factors for non-compliance. On multivariable analysis, older age (OR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.001-1.014, p = 0.03) was associated with compliance, while non-residents from China (OR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.18-0.99, p = 0.05), seat position (front passenger compared to driver, OR 0.64, 95 % CI 0.48-0.85, p = 0.002; rear passenger compared to driver, OR 0.067, 95 % CI 0.05-0.09, p < 0.0001), vehicle type (bus compared to car, OR 0.04, 95 % CI 0.017-0.11, p < 0.0001, van compared to car, OR 0.55, 95 % CI 0.36-0.83, p = 0.004), and travel at morning peak periods were independent predictors of seatbelt non-compliance. When the sub-group of drivers was analysed, only vehicle type was a significant predictor of seatbelt compliance, with bus drivers least likely to be compliant to seatbelts (multivariable analysis, OR 0.057 compared to cars, 95 % CI 0.019-0.18, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: While overall seatbelt compliance in our study is high, efforts can be made to increase compliance for morning rush hour passengers, rear seat passengers, and occupants of buses, heavy transport vehicles, and vans or pickups.

Combining the new injury severity score with an anatomical polytrauma injury variable predicts mortality better than the new injury severity score and the injury severity score: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anatomy-based injury severity scores are commonly used with physiological scores for reporting severity of injury in a standardized manner. However, there is lack of consensus on choice of scoring system, with the commonly used injury severity score (ISS) performing poorly for certain sub-groups, eg head-injured patients. We hypothesized that adding a dichotomous variable for polytrauma (yes/no for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of 3 or more in at least two body regions) to the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) would improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality in injured patients, including head-injured patients-a subgroup that has a disproportionately high mortality. Our secondary hypothesis was that the ISS over-estimates the risk of death in polytrauma patients, while the NISS under-estimates it. METHODS: Univariate and multivariable analysis was performed on retrospective cohort data of blunt injured patients aged 18 and over with an ISS over 9 from the Singapore National Trauma Registry from 2011-2013. Model diagnostics were tested using discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic). All models included age, gender, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Our results showed that the polytrauma and NISS model outperformed the other models (polytrauma and ISS, NISS alone or ISS alone) in predicting 30-day and in-hospital mortality. The NISS underestimated the risk of death for patients with polytrauma, while the ISS overestimated the risk of death for these patients. When used together with the NISS and polytrauma, categorical variables for deranged physiology (systolic blood pressure of 90 mmHg or less, GCS of 8 or less) outperformed the traditional 'ISS and RTS (Revised Trauma Score)' model, with a c-statistic of greater than 0.90. This could be useful in cases when the RTS cannot be scored due to missing respiratory rate. DISCUSSION: The NISS and polytrauma model is superior to current scores for prediction of 30-day and in-hospital mortality. We propose that this score replace the ISS or NISS in institutions using AIS-based scores. CONCLUSIONS: Adding polytrauma to the NISS or ISS improves prediction of 30-day mortality. The superiority of the NISS or ISS depends on the proportion of polytrauma and head-injured patients in the study population.

Emergency Medical Services Utilization among Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Observations from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Early activation of emergency medical services (EMS), rapid transport, and treatment of patients experiencing ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) can improve outcomes. The Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR) is a nation-wide registry that collects data on STEMI. We aimed to determine the prevalence, predictors, and outcomes of EMS utilization among STEMI patients presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) in Singapore. METHODS: We analyzed STEMI patients enrolled by SMIR from January 2010 to December 2012. We excluded patients who were transferred, developed STEMI in-hospital or suffered cardiac arrest out-of-hospital or in the ED. Primary outcome was process-of-care timings. Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of cardiac complications. Multivariate analysis was used to examine independent factors associated with EMS transport. RESULTS: 6412 patients were enrolled into the study; 4667 patients were eligible for analysis. 49.8% of patients utilized EMS transport. EMS transport was associated with higher rate of reperfusion therapy (74.3% vs. 65.1%, p < 0.01), shorter median symptom-to-door time (119 vs. 182 minutes, p < 0.01), door-to-balloon time (59 vs. 70 minutes, p < 0.01), and symptom-to-balloon time (185 vs. 233 minutes, p < 0.01). EMS transport had more patients with Killip Class 4 (7.5% vs 4.0%, p < 0.01) and was associated with greater presentation of heart failure, arrhythmias, and complete heart block. Independent predictors of EMS transport were age, syncope and Killip score; after-office-hour presentation was a negative predictor. CONCLUSION: Less than half of STEMI patients utilized EMS and EMS patients had faster receipt of initial reperfusion therapies. Targeted public education to reduce time to treatment may improve the care of STEMI patients.