Effect of a Real-Time Risk Score on 30-day Readmission Reduction in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score for the real-time prediction of readmissions for patients using patient specific information captured in electronic medical records (EMR) in Singapore to enable the prospective identification of high-risk patients for enrolment in timely interventions. METHODS: Machine-learning models were built to estimate the probability of a patient being readmitted within 30 days of discharge. EMR of 25,472 patients discharged from the medicine department at Ng Teng Fong General Hospital between January 2016 and December 2016 were extracted retrospectively for training and internal validation of the models. We developed and implemented a real-time 30-day readmission risk score generation in the EMR system, which enabled the flagging of high-risk patients to care providers in the hospital. Based on the daily high-risk patient list, the various interfaces and flow sheets in the EMR were configured according to the information needs of the various stakeholders such as the inpatient medical, nursing, case management, emergency department, and postdischarge care teams. RESULTS: Overall, the machine-learning models achieved good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic ranging from 0.77 to 0.81. The models were used to proactively identify and attend to patients who are at risk of readmission before an actual readmission occurs. This approach successfully reduced the 30-day readmission rate for patients admitted to the medicine department from 11.7% in 2017 to 10.1% in 2019 (p < 0.01) after risk adjustment. CONCLUSION: Machine-learning models can be deployed in the EMR system to provide real-time forecasts for a more comprehensive outlook in the aspects of decision-making and care provision.

SARS-CoV-2 in migrant worker dormitories: Geospatial epidemiology supporting outbreak management.

BACKGROUND: Migrant worker dormitories-residential complexes where 10-24 workers share living spaces-account for the majority of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Singapore. To prevent overspill of transmission to the wider population, starting in early April 2020, residents were confined to their dormitories while measures were put in place to arrest the spread of infection. This descriptive study presents epidemiological data for a population of more than 60 000 migrant workers living in two barracks-style and four apartment-style dormitories located in western Singapore from April 3 to June 10, 2020. METHODS: Our report draws from data obtained over the first 50 days of outbreak management in order to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission in high-density housing environments. Cumulative counts of SARS-CoV-2 cases and numbers of housing units affected were analyzed to report the harmonic means of harmonic means of doubling times and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Multiple transmission peaks were identified involving at least 5467 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection across six dormitories. Our geospatial heat maps gave an early indication of outbreak severity in affected buildings. We found that the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection doubled every 1.56 days (95% CI 1.29-1.96) in barracks-style buildings. The corresponding doubling time for apartment-style buildings was 2.65 days (95% CI 2.01-3.87). CONCLUSIONS: Geospatial epidemiology was useful in shaping outbreak management strategies in dormitories. Our results indicate that building design plays an integral role in transmission and should be considered in the prevention of future outbreaks.

Characteristics and Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients with Respiratory Failure Admitted to a "Pandemic Ready" Intensive Care Unit - Lessons from Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Singapore was one of the first countries affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but has been able to prevent its healthcare system and intensive care units (ICU) from being overwhelmed. We describe the clinical features, management and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure admitted to our ICU. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A case series of COVID-19 patients admitted to our ICU for respiratory failure from 7 February, with data censoring at 30 June 2020, was performed from a review of medical records. RESULTS: Twenty-two COVID-19 patients were admitted to our ICU for respiratory failure. The median age was 54.5 years (IQR 30-45.5), 72.7% were male and had at least one comorbidity. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were 2.5 (IQR 1.25-7) and 10 (8.25-12) respectively. Thirteen patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and had a median PaO2/FiO2 ratio of 194 mmHg (IQR 173-213) after intubation. The 28-day survival was 100%, with 2 patients demising subsequently. The overall ICU mortality rate was 9.1% at the time of data censoring. In IMV survivors, length of IMV and ICU stay were 11 days (IQR 9-17.75) and 16 days (IQR 12-32) respectively. CONCLUSION: Low COVID-19 ICU mortality was observed in our "pandemic-ready" ICU. This was achieved by having adequate surge capacity to facilitate early ICU admission and IMV, lung protective ventilation, and slow weaning. Being able to maintain clinical standards and evidence-based practices without having to resort to rationing contributed to better outcomes.

Comparative efficacy of inhaled medications (ICS/LABA, LAMA, LAMA/LABA and SAMA) for COPD: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: To assess the comparative efficacy of short-acting muscarinic antagonists (SAMAs), long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs), LAMA in combination with long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs; LAMA/LABAs) and inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in combination with LABA (ICS/LABAs) for the maintenance treatment of COPD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We systematically reviewed 74 randomized controlled trials (74,832 participants) published up to 15 November 2017, which compared any of the interventions (SAMA [ipratropium], LAMA [aclidinium, glycopyrronium, tiotropium, umeclidinium], LAMA/LABA [aclidinium/formoterol, indacaterol/glycopyrronium, tiotropium/olodaterol, umeclidinium/vilanterol] and ICS/LABA [fluticasone/vilanterol, budesonide/formoterol, salmeterol/fluticasone]) with each other or with placebo. A random-effects network meta-analysis combining direct and indirect evidence was conducted to examine the change from baseline in trough FEV1, transition dyspnea index, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire and frequency of adverse events at weeks 12 and 24. RESULTS: Inconsistency models were not statistically significant for all outcomes. LAMAs, LAMA/LABAs and ICS/LABAs led to a significantly greater improvement in trough FEV1 compared with placebo and SAMA monotherapy at weeks 12 and 24. All LAMA/LABAs, except aclidinium/formoterol, were statistically significantly better than LAMA monotherapy and ICS/LABAs in improving trough FEV1. Among the LAMAs, umeclidinium showed statistically significant improvement in trough FEV1 at week 12 compared to tiotropium and glycopyrronium, but the results were not clinically significant. LAMA/LABAs had the highest probabilities of being ranked the best agents in FEV1 improvement. Similar trends were observed for the transition dyspnea index and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire outcomes. There were no significant differences in the incidences of adverse events among all treatment options. CONCLUSION: LAMA/LABA showed the greatest improvement in trough FEV1 at weeks 12 and 24 compared with the other inhaled drug classes, while SAMA showed the least improvement. There were no significant differences among the LAMAs and LAMA/LABAs within their respective classes.

Ministry of Health Clinical Practice Guidelines: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) has updated the Clinical Practice Guidelines on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) to provide doctors and patients in Singapore with evidence-based treatment for COPD. This article reproduces the introduction and executive summary (with recommendations from the guidelines) from the MOH Clinical Practice Guidelines on COPD, for the information of SMJ readers. Chapters and page numbers mentioned in the reproduced extract refer to the full text of the guidelines, which are available from the Ministry of Health website: https://www.moh.gov.sg/content/moh_web/healthprofessionalsportal/doctors/guidelines/cpg_medical.html. The recommendations should be used with reference to the full text of the guidelines. Following this article are multiple choice questions based on the full text of the guidelines.

Effectiveness of a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease integrated care pathway in a regional health system: a propensity score matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) integrated care pathway (ICP) programme was designed and implemented to ensure that the care for patients with COPD is comprehensive and integrated across different care settings from primary care to acute hospital and home. We evaluated the effectiveness of the ICP programme for patients with COPD. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective propensity score matched cohort study was conducted comparing differences between programme enrolees and propensity-matched non-enrolees in a Regional Health System in Singapore. Data on patients diagnosed with COPD who enrolled in the programme (n=95) and patients who did not enrol (n=6330) were extracted from the COPD registry and hospital administrative databases. Enrolees and non-enrolees were propensity score matched. OUTCOME MEASURES: The risk of COPD hospitalisations and COPD hospital bed days savings were compared between the groups using a difference-in-difference strategy and generalised estimating equation approach. Adherence with recommended care elements for the COPD-ICP group was measured quarterly at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Compared with non-enrolees, COPD hospitalisation risk for ICP programme enrolees was significantly lower in year 2 (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.73; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.00). Similarly, COPD hospital bed days was significantly lower for enrolees in year 2 (IRR: 0.78; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.95). ICP programme patients had sustained improvements in compliance with all recommended care elements for patients with COPD. The overall all-or-none care bundle compliance rate had improved from 28% to 54%. CONCLUSION: The study concluded that the COPD-ICP programme was associated with reductions in COPD hospitalisation risk and COPD health utilisation in a 2-year follow-up period.

A matched-group study protocol to evaluate the implementation of an Integrated Care Pathway programme for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: The treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) involves different care providers across care sites. This fragmentation of care increases the morbidity and mortality burden, as well as acute health services use. The COPD-Integrated Care Pathway (ICP) was designed and implemented to integrate the care across different sites from primary care to acute hospital and home. It aims to reduce the prevalence of COPD among the population in the catchment, reduce risk of hospital admissions, delay or prevent the progression of the disease and reduce mortality rate by adopting a coordinated and multidisciplinary approach to the management of the patients' medical conditions. This study on the COPD-ICP programme is undertaken to determine the impact on processes of care, clinical outcomes and acute care utilisation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This will be a retrospective, pre-post, matched-groups study to evaluate the effectiveness of the COPD-ICP programme in improving clinical outcomes and reducing healthcare costs. Programme enrolees (intervention group) and non-enrolees (comparator group) will be matched using propensity scores. Administratively, we set 30% as our target for proportion admission difference between programme and non-programme patients. A sample size of 62 patients in each group will be needed for statistical comparisons to be made at 90% power. Adherence with recommended care elements will be measured at baseline and quarterly during 1-year follow-up. Risk of COPD-related hospitalisations as primary outcome, healthcare costs, disease progression and 1-year mortality during 1-year follow-up will be compared between the groups using generalised linear regression models. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol describes the implementation and proposed evaluation of the COPD-ICP programme. The described study has received ethical approval from the NHG Domain Specific Review Board (DSRB Ref: 2013/01200). Results of the study will be reported through peer-review publications and presentations at healthcare conferences.

When traditional model meets competencies in Singapore: beyond conflict resolution.

INTRODUCTION: The implementation of competency-based internal medicine (IM) residency programme that focused on the assurance of a set of 6 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies in Singapore marked a dramatic departure from the traditional process-based curriculum. The transition ignited debates within the local IM community about the relative merits of the traditional versus competency-based models of medical education, as well as the feasibility of locally implementing a training structure that originated from a very different healthcare landscape. At the same time, it provided a setting for a natural experiment on how a rapid integration of 2 different training models could be achieved. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our department reconciled the conflicts by systematically examining the existing training structure and critically evaluating the 2 educational models to develop a new training curriculum aligned with institutional mission values, national healthcare priorities and ACGME-International (ACGME-I) requirements. RESULTS: Graduate outcomes were conceptualised as competencies that were grouped into 3 broad areas: personal attributes, interaction with practice environment, and integration. These became the blueprint to guide curricular design and achieve alignment between outcomes, learning activities and assessments. The result was a novel competency-based IM residency programme that retained the strengths of the traditional training model and integrated the competencies with institutional values and the unique local practice environment. CONCLUSION: We had learned from this unique experience that when 2 very different models of medical education clashed, the outcome may not be mere conflict resolution but also effective consolidation and transformation.

Impact of a palliative care initiative on end-of-life care in the general wards: a before-and-after study.

BACKGROUND: Data on deaths in the general wards of our hospital in 2007 revealed infrequent discussions on end-of-life care and excessive burdensome interventions. AIM: A physician order form to withhold inappropriate life-sustaining interventions was initiated in 2009. The use of the form was facilitated by staff educational sessions and a palliative care consult service. This study aims to evaluate the impact of these interventions in 2010. DESIGN: Retrospective medical chart review with comparisons was made for the following: baseline patient characteristics, orders concerning life-sustaining therapies, treatment provided in last 24 h of life, and discussion of specific life-sustaining therapies with patients and families. SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS: This study included all adult patients who died in our hospital's general wards in 2007 (N = 683) versus 2010 (N = 714). RESULTS: There was an increase in orders to withhold life-sustaining therapies, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation (66.2%-80.0%). There was a decrease in burdensome interventions such as antibiotics (44.9%-24.9%) and a small increase in palliative treatments such as analgesia (29.1%-36.7%). There were more discussions on the role of cardiopulmonary resuscitation with conversant patients (4.6%-10.2%) and families (56.5%-79.8%) (p-value all < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, the physician order form independently predicted orders to withhold cardiopulmonary resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS: A multifaceted intervention of a physician order form, educational sessions, and palliative care consult service led to an improvement in documentation of end-of-life discussions and was associated with an increase in such discussions and less burdensome treatments. There were small improvements in the proportion of palliative treatments administered.

Severe community-acquired Acinetobacter baumannii pneumonia: an emerging highly lethal infectious disease in the Asia-Pacific.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Patients with community-acquired Acinetobacter baumannii (AB) pneumonia have been reported from subtropical countries. We investigated the epidemiology, clinical and microbiological characteristics of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) due to AB in Singapore. METHOD: A retrospective case series was performed over a 21-month period at two institutions. RESULTS: From 1 January 2007 to 30 September 2008, eight patients were diagnosed with CAP due to AB. Seven had bacteraemia and five were sputum culture-positive. The median age at presentation was 58.5 years (range 45-76 years). Five patients (71.4%) acquired the pneumonia in the warmer months of June to September. Presentation was acute, with a median duration of 2.5 days (range 1-7 days). The median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 28.5 (range 6-36). Six patients presented with septic shock, lactic acidosis, acute kidney injury and respiratory failure, necessitating ICU care; five of these patients eventually died. All patients received empirical antibiotics, including third-generation cephalosporins, which were inactive against the organism. All isolates were susceptible to ampicillin/sulbactam, ciprofloxacin, co-trimoxazole, aminoglycosides and imipenem. CONCLUSIONS: Community-acquired AB pneumonia have a fulminant course. In a region endemic for melioidosis and severe community-acquired Klebsiella pneumoniae, the challenge lies in rapid identification and initiation of appropriate empirical antibiotics to improve the survival of patients with AB CAP.

Marked elevations in N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide levels in septic shock.

INTRODUCTION: N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a cardiac biomarker that has recently shown to be of diagnostic value in a diagnosis of decompensated heart failure, acute coronary syndromes and other conditions resulting in myocardial stretch. We sought to study whether sepsis-induced myocardial dilation would result in an elevation of NT-proBNP. METHOD: Serum NT-proBNP measurements were made in six consecutive patients with septic shock within 6 hours of admission to the intensive care unit. RESULTS: Markedly elevated levels of NT-proBNP were found in all six patients. CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP levels can be markedly elevated in critically ill patients presenting with septic shock. An elevated NT-proBNP level in a critically ill patient is not specific for decompensated heart failure.

Feasibility of using low-volume tissue samples for gene expression profiling of advanced non-small cell lung cancers.

PURPOSE: The majority of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) present at an advanced clinical stage, when surgery is not a recommended therapeutic option. In such cases, tissues for molecular research are usually limited to the low-volume samples obtained at the time of diagnosis, usually via fine-needle aspiration (FNA). We tested the feasibility of performing gene expression profiling of advanced NSCLCs using amplified RNA from lung FNAs. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND RESULTS: A total of 46 FNAs was tested, of which 18 yielded RNA of sufficient quality for microarray analysis. Expression profiles of these 18 samples were compared with profiles of 17 pairs of tumor and normal lung tissues that had been surgically obtained. Using a variety of unsupervised and supervised analytical approaches, we found that the FNA profiles were highly distinct from the normal samples and similar to the tumor profiles. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that when RNA amplification is successful, gene expression profiles from NSCLC FNAs can determine malignancy and suggest that with additional refinement and standardization of sample collection and RNA amplification protocols, it will be possible to conduct additional and more detailed molecular analysis of advanced NSCLC using lung FNAs.

Transbronchial needle aspiration: initial experience in routine diagnostic bronchoscopy.

BACKGROUND: Transbronchial needle aspiration (TBNA) has been shown to be useful not only for the diagnosis and staging of lung cancer, its most widely studied indication, but also for many of other clinical indications. Despite this, it remains largely underutilized, mainly because of concerns with poor yield, safety, lack of experience of the bronchoscopist, and lack of cytopathological support. OBJECTIVE: To study the clinical utility and yield of TBNA as an adjunct to other conventional procedures in diagnostic bronchoscopy at a centre that was relatively inexperienced with this technique, but where there was availability of rapid on-site evaluation (ROSE). Most of the major indications for TBNA in both malignant as well as benign disease were included. SETTING: University Teaching Hospital naïve to the procedure. PATIENT AND METHODS: Forty-five consecutive patients who underwent TBNA as part of diagnostic bronchoscopy during a 2-year study period. RESULTS: TBNA gave a yield of 65% for evaluation of mediastinal disease, both benign and malignant. The overall diagnostic utility for all indications was 71% and there were no complications. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that TBNA is a useful and safe adjunct to diagnostic bronchoscopy in routine clinical practice. It has a satisfactory yield even with an inexperienced team, if used with ROSE.