A global scale COVID-19 variants time-series analysis across 48 countries.

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is slowing down, and countries are discussing whether preventive measures have remained effective or not. This study aimed to investigate a particular property of the trend of COVID-19 that existed and if its variants of concern were cointegrated, determining its possible transformation into an endemic. Methods: Biweekly expected new cases by variants of COVID-19 for 48 countries from 02 May 2020 to 29 August 2022 were acquired from the GISAID database. While the case series was tested for homoscedasticity with the Breusch-Pagan test, seasonal decomposition was used to obtain a trend component of the biweekly global new case series. The percentage change of trend was then tested for zero-mean symmetry with the one-sample Wilcoxon signed rank test and zero-mean stationarity with the augmented Dickey-Fuller test to confirm a random COVID trend globally. Vector error correction models with the same seasonal adjustment were regressed to obtain a variant-cointegrated series for each country. They were tested by the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity to confirm a constant long-term stochastic intervariant interaction within the country. Results: The trend series of seasonality-adjusted global COVID-19 new cases was found to be heteroscedastic (p = 0.002), while its rate of change was indeterministic (p = 0.052) and stationary (p = 0.024). Seasonal cointegration relationships between expected new case series by variants were found in 37 out of 48 countries (p < 0.05), reflecting a constant long-term stochastic trend in new case numbers contributed from different variants of concern within most countries. Conclusion: Our results indicated that the new case long-term trends were random on a global scale and stable within most countries; therefore, the virus was unlikely to be eliminated but containable. Policymakers are currently in the process of adapting to the transformation of the pandemic into an endemic.

The physical and developmental outcomes of children whose mothers are substance abusers: Analysis of associated factors and the impact of early intervention.

Background/objectives: Maternal illicit drug use is associated with negative physical and developmental outcomes for their born children. We aim to find out the incidence of different developmental problems in a cohort of Chinese children born to drug-abusing mothers, compare the physical health and developmental outcomes of the subjects recruited in the Integrated Program to the Comprehensive Child Development Service (CCDS), and to study the potential factors on their associations. Methods: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study with frequent clinical assessments of the children's physical and developmental outcomes in a HKSAR's regional hospital from birth until 5 years old. 123 Children in Integrated Program were compared with 214 children in CCDS between 1 January 2008 and 28 February 2019. Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the possible factors associated with the developmental outcomes. Results: Developmental delay was detected in 129 children (38.9%). CCDS group has significantly higher incidence of cognitive delay (p = < 0.001), language delay (p = < 0.001), motor delay (p = < 0.001), social delay (p = 0.002), and global delay (p = 0.002). On Cox multivariable regression analysis, integrated program (HRadj 0.53, 95% C. I. 0.34-0.84), social support (HRadj 0.45, 95% C.I. 0.25-0.80), and maternal abstinence from drug use up to 2-year post-delivery (HRadj 0.62, 95% C.I. 0.40-0.95) were significant protective factors, while male gender (HRadj 1.73, 95% C.I. 1.18-2.54) was a significant risk factor. Conclusion: CCDS achieves early engagement of drug-abusing expectant mothers during pregnancy, and an early integrated program with multidisciplinary collaboration was an independent factor in improving the developmental outcomes of these vulnerable children.

A cross-sectional survey: Exploring future healthcare workers' intention to use cannabis through extended theory of planned behavior.

Cannabis is the most extensively abused drug, leading to multiple health burdens such as traffic accidents and psychosis. There is a global wave of legalization of recreational and medical cannabis. This study aimed to understand future healthcare workers' intention to use cannabis through extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). An online cross-sectional survey on cannabis, including validated survey tools and questions on demographics, knowledge, and constructs of the TPB was designed, and distributed during virtual classes in late 2020. Responses were obtained from the Faculty of Medicine of a local university. Nine hundred ninety-six responses were collected, of which 629 were complete and analysed. Age was the only demographic variable associated with cannabis use intention (p = 0.029). Respondents with intention had better knowledge of cannabis. All TPB and additional constructs, including perceived behavioral control (COR = 3.44, 95% CI 2.72-4.35, p < 0.001), descriptive norm (COR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.81-2.77, p < 0.001), injunctive norm (COR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.42-0.61, p < 0.001), attitude (COR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28, p < 0.001), knowledge (COR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14), and perceived availability (COR = 2.75, 95% CI 2.22-3.40, p < 0.001) were individually associated with intention. In the final multiple logistic regression model adjusted for age, only attitude (AOR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.13-1.25, p < 0.001) and perceived availability (p = 0.004) showed statistically significant associations with intention. Descriptive norm (standardized coefficient = 0.570) had better explanatory power than the injunctive norm (standardized coefficient = -0.143) in the model. Perceived behavioral control was associated with intention among respondents with negative to neutral attitudes towards cannabis (AOR = 2.48, 95% CI 1.63-3.77, p < 0.001), but not among those with positive attitudes. All TPB constructs positively correlated with the intention to use cannabis. Changing the attitudes and perceived control on cannabis use may be useful in preventing cannabis use.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Measures on the COVID-19 Vaccination Rate in Hong Kong.

Background: The World Health Organization has set a target of at least 70% of the global population being vaccinated by the middle of 2022. There are only 17 countries that achieved a 70% vaccination rate (VR). This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of public policies to increase the COVID-19 VR. Methods: vaccination figures of all eligible population groups in Hong Kong from 22 February 2021 to 23 January 2022, were extracted for analysis. Weekly acceleration in the VR (AVR) was calculated as a measure of policy effectiveness. A total of 13 identified measures were classified into four policy categories: eligibility, accessibility, incentives, and restrictions. Age-weighted AVR (AWAVR) was compared by age group and policy presence vs. absence using Mann−Whitney U tests. Results: the AWAVR means across age groups ranged from −1.26% to +0.23% (p = 0.12) for eligibility; accessibility ranged from +0.18% to +1.51% (p < 0.0001); incentives ranged from +0.11% to +0.68% (p < 0.0001); and restrictions ranged from +0.02% to +1.25% (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: policies targeting accessibility, incentives, and restrictions are effective at increasing the VR. These results may serve as a policy reference.

Emergence of antibiotic-resistant Mycoplasma genitalium as the cause of non-gonococcal urethritis in male patients at a sexually transmitted infection clinic.

Mycoplasma genitalium is the cause of an emerging sexually transmitted infection (STI) with high propensity for development of antimicrobial resistance. In a prevalence study conducted at the public STI service in Hong Kong, the first void urine samples of 38 (8%) of 493 male patients with non-gonococcal urethritis (NGU) tested positive for M. genitalium using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Patients with M. genitalium infection were younger [31 vs 33 years, odds ratio (OR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-0.996; P=0.03], more likely to present with urethral discharge (12% vs 6%, OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.10-4.23; P=0.02) and had symptom duration >2 weeks (14% vs 6%, OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.10-4.97; P=0.03) compared with patients without M. genitalium infection. The prevalence of M. genitalium infection was lower in patients co-infected with Chlamydia trachomatis compared with patients with isolated infection (4% vs 10%, OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17-0.84; P=0.02). The prevalence of M. genitalium infection was not higher in men who have sex with men. Antimicrobial-resistance-conferring mutations were present in 24 (63%) patients with M. genitalium - 23S rRNA 18 (47%) and parC 19 (53%). Similar to neighbouring countries in the Asia Pacific region, concurrent resistance mutations against both macrolides and fluoroquinolones were demonstrated in 14 (37%) patients. Histories of azithromycin and moxifloxacin use were significantly associated with a diagnosis of M. genitalium infection. Characteristically, NGU in Hong Kong featured the co-existence of mono-resistance against macrolides or fluoroquinolones, and the presence of dual class resistance. The geographic variability of antimicrobial resistance against M. genitalium is attributed not just to the different transmission networks formed in separate population groups, but the antimicrobial prescriptions for the treatment of urethritis in the community.

Narrative Review on Health-EDRM Primary Prevention Measures for Vector-Borne Diseases.

Climate change is expanding the global at-risk population for vector-borne diseases (VBDs). The World Health Organization (WHO) health emergency and disaster risk management (health-EDRM) framework emphasises the importance of primary prevention of biological hazards and its value in protecting against VBDs. The framework encourages stakeholder coordination and information sharing, though there is still a need to reinforce prevention and recovery within disaster management. This keyword-search based narrative literature review searched databases PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase and Medline between January 2000 and May 2020, and identified 134 publications. In total, 10 health-EDRM primary prevention measures are summarised at three levels (personal, environmental and household). Enabling factor, limiting factors, co-benefits and strength of evidence were identified. Current studies on primary prevention measures for VBDs focus on health risk-reduction, with minimal evaluation of actual disease reduction. Although prevention against mosquito-borne diseases, notably malaria, has been well-studied, research on other vectors and VBDs remains limited. Other gaps included the limited evidence pertaining to prevention in resource-poor settings and the efficacy of alternatives, discrepancies amongst agencies' recommendations, and limited studies on the impact of technological advancements and habitat change on VBD prevalence. Health-EDRM primary prevention measures for VBDs require high-priority research to facilitate multifaceted, multi-sectoral, coordinated responses that will enable effective risk mitigation.

Prevalence and associated factors for carriage of Enterobacteriaceae producing ESBLs or carbapenemase and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Hong Kong community.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a cross-sectional study in Hong Kong community to estimate the carriage prevalence, associated factors and genotypes of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). METHODS: Seemingly healthy subjects were asked to provide nasal, handprint and stool samples from March to April 2017. Isolates were characterized by molecular methods. We used multivariable logistic regression models within a generalized estimating equation framework to identify risk factors for ESBL-E carriage. Characteristics of MRSA/CPE carriage were summarized. RESULTS: The prevalence of ESBL-E, MRSA and CPE were 52.8% (104/197), 2.5% (5/197) and 0.5% (1/197) respectively. Most ESBL-E isolates were E. coli (85.6%; 113/132). Most ESBL genes belonged to blaCTX-M-G9 (68.9%) and blaTEM (53.0%) types. Self-reported antibiotic consumption (≥2 courses) in the past six months was associated with ESBL-E carriage (adjusted odds ratio: 4.71-5.47). CONCLUSIONS: Abundance of ESBL-E in the community are causes of concern, and antibiotic use is associated with its carriage. Presence of MRSA and CPE in community members without clear healthcare exposure hints on a change in their epidemiology. This study establishes a baseline to formulate infection control policies and future studies in combating antimicrobial resistance.

Mathematical modelling of the impact of treating latent tuberculosis infection in the elderly in a city with intermediate tuberculosis burden.

Hong Kong is a high-income city with intermediate tuberculosis (TB) burden primarily driven by endogenous reactivations. A high proportion of remote latently infected people, particularly elderly, hinders the effectiveness of current strategies focusing on passive TB detection. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of treating latent TB infection (LTBI) in the elderly in addition to current TB control strategies. The model was calibrated using the annual age-stratified TB notifications from 1965-2013 in Hong Kong. Our results showed that at present, approximately 75% of annual new notifications were from reactivations. Given the present treatment completion rate, even if only a low to moderate proportion (approximately 20% to 40%) of elderly people were screened and treated for LTBI, the overall TB incidence could be reduced by almost 50%, to reach the 2025 milestone of the global End TB Strategy. Nevertheless, due to a high risk of hepatotoxicity in elderly population, benefit-risk ratios were mostly below unity; thus, intervention programs should be carefully formulated, including prioritising LTBI treatment for high-risk elderly groups who are closely monitored for possible adverse side effects.

The strategic framework of tuberculosis control and prevention in the elderly: a scoping review towards End TB targets.

With the rapid pace of population ageing, tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly increasingly becomes a public health challenge. Despite the increasing burden and high risks for TB in the elderly, targeted strategy has not been well understood and evaluated. We undertook a scoping review to identify current TB strategies, research and policy gaps in the elderly and summarized the results within a strategic framework towards End TB targets. Databases of Embase, MEDLINE, Global health and EBM reviews were searched for original studies, review articles, and policy papers published in English between January 1990 and December 2015. Articles examining TB strategy, program, guideline or intervention in the elderly from public health perspective were included.Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Most of them were qualitative studies, issued in high- and middle-income countries and after 2000. To break the chain of TB transmission and reactivation in the elderly, infection control, interventions of avoiding delay in diagnosis and containment are essential for preventing transmission, especially in elderly institutions and aged immigrants; screening of latent TB infection and preventive therapy had effective impacts on reducing the risk of reactivation and should be used less reluctantly in older people; optimizing early case-finding with a high index of suspicion, systematic screening for prioritized high-risk groups, initial empirical and adequate follow-up treatment with close monitoring and evaluation, as well as enhanced programmatic management are fundamental pillars for active TB elimination. Evaluation of TB epidemiology, risk factors, impacts and cost-effectiveness of interventions, adopting accurate and rapid diagnostic tools, shorter and less toxic preventive therapy, are critical issues for developing strategy in the elderly towards End TB targets.TB control strategies in the elderly were comprehensively mapped in a causal link pathway. The framework and principals identified in this study will help to evaluate and improve current program, develop targeted strategy, as well as raise more discussions on the research priority settings and policy transitions. Given the scarceness of policy and evaluated interventions, as well as the unawareness of shifting TB epidemiology and strategy especially in developing countries, the increasing need of a ready TB program for the elderly warrants further research.

CD209 (DC-SIGN) -336A>G promoter polymorphism and severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong Chinese.

CD209 (DC-SIGN) is an important C-type lectin which acts a receptor of many pathogens. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -336A>G in the CD209 promoter has been demonstrated to regulate promoter activity and to be associated with several important infectious diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1), Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Dengue fever. CD209 facilitates severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus spike protein-bearing pseudotype driven infection of permissive cells in vitro. In keeping with previously published findings, our in vitro studies confirmed that this SNP modulates gene promoter activity. Genetic association analysis of this SNP with clinico-pathologic outcomes in 824 serologic confirmed SARS patients showed that the -336AG/GG genotype SARS patients was associated with lower standardized lactate-dehydrogenase (LDH) levels compared with the -336AA patients (p = 0.014, odds ratio = 0.40). High LDH levels are known to be an independent predictor for poor clinical outcome, probably related to tissue destruction from immune hyperactivity. Hence, SARS patients with the CD209 -336 AA genotype carry a 60% chance of having a poorer prognosis. This association is in keeping with the role of CD209 in modulating immune response to viral infection. The relevance of these findings for other infectious diseases and inflammatory conditions would be worth investigating.

A multi-country outbreak of fungal keratitis associated with a brand of contact lens solution: the Hong Kong experience.

OBJECTIVES: Starting in mid-2005, an increase in fungal keratitis caused by Fusarium spp was observed among contact lens wearers in Hong Kong, Singapore, and the USA. The objective of this study was to describe the outbreak and to determine any association with the use of Bausch & Lomb (B&L) ReNu contact lens solution. METHODS: We defined a case as a disposable contact lens user with ophthalmologist-diagnosed keratitis and a positive culture of Fusarium spp reported to the Department of Health from January 1, 2005 to May 31, 2006. We identified cases through inpatient discharge data and the electronic laboratory databases of all public hospitals, and from physician reporting. Controls were recruited from three outpatient clinics. Risk factors were collected using a standardized questionnaire and analyzed by univariate analysis and binary logistic regression. RESULTS: From January 2005 through May 2006, we identified 33 cases of Fusarium keratitis. Most were in young adults (mean age 28 years) who presented with eye pain (100%), redness (84%), photophobia (41%), and tearing (34%). Twenty-four cases and 86 controls were recruited in the case-control study. By logistic regression, B&L ReNu solution showed the strongest association with being a case (adjusted odds ratio 26.1, 95% confidence interval 3.0-225.3) after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Using B&L ReNu contact lens solution was strongly associated with Fusarium keratitis among disposable contact lens users in Hong Kong. B&L ReNu with MoistureLoc was permanently withdrawn from the market globally in May 2006.

SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts.

A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.