Suicide attempts during adolescence: Testing the system dynamics of the interpersonal theory of suicide.

INTRODUCTION: Despite increased efforts to prevent suicide, attempts to die by suicide are rising amongst youth in the United States. Testing causal theories that depict suicide attempts from an adolescent development perspective could bolster prevention and intervention efforts. This study using system dynamics modeling to appraise whether a prevalent theory of suicide, the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, predicts suicide attempts across adolescence. METHODS: A system dynamics computational simulation model was conceptualized based on the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, as described by Joiner and Van Orden et al. This model was parameterized with representative longitudinal data on adolescents in the United States who attempted suicide across four waves from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent and Adult Health. RESULTS: Though able to predict exponential growth in suicide attempts for early adolescents, the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, when specified as a dynamic theory, did not adequately predict the nonlinear changes in suicide attempts from adolescence into adulthood. The theory was amended with potential feedback loops from literature and tested for fit. CONCLUSIONS: The study builds on a field of emerging views that suicide dynamics should be tested to account for nonlinear feedback effects. Results suggest that the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide should be amended to include the effect of interventions after an attempt and the dynamic developmental processes during adolescence that affect suicide behaviors over time.

System Dynamics of Cognitive Vulnerabilities and Family Support Among Latina Children and Adolescents.

The paper describes an approach to developing a data-driven development of a feedback theory of cognitive vulnerabilities and family support focused on understanding the dynamics experienced among Latina children, adolescents, and families. Family support is understood to be a response to avoidant and maladaptive behaviors that may be characteristic of cognitive vulnerabilities commonly associated depression and suicidal ideation. A formal feedback theory is developed, appraised, and analyzed using a combination of secondary analysis of qualitative interviews (N = 30) and quantitative analysis using system dynamics modeling and simulation. Implications for prevention practice, treatment, and future research are discussed.

Scaling Up Housing Services Within the Child Welfare System: Policy Insights From Simulation Modeling.

OBJECTIVES: Housing insecurity and homelessness contribute to risk of maltreatment among one in five of the nearly 3.5 million children annually investigated for maltreatment in the United States. The Family Unification Program (FUP)-a federal initiative-connects inadequately housed families involved in child welfare with long-term rental subsidies to avoid foster placement. However, FUP remains understudied and underutilized with funding levels that serve only a fraction of eligible households. The present study uses system dynamics modeling to inform decision-making by testing policies for scaling FUP. METHOD: Simulations model delivery of FUP within child welfare from a feedback perspective. Calibrated on national data, models replicate trends in child welfare involvement from 2013 through 2016, and analyses forecast rates through 2019. Experiments test policies that enhance FUP. Outcomes track system-wide rates of family separation and returns on investment of expanded housing interventions. RESULTS: Dramatic expansions of FUP benefit more families and improve marginal return on investment. Yet, scale-up fails to reduce system-wide rates of family separation or generates substantial cost-savings. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations demonstrate structural challenges for scaling FUP. Constant demand for affordable housing constrains sustainable improvements in child protection. Child welfare responses to homelessness require innovations that reduce demand for housing services through prevention and earlier intervention.

Homelessness in the child welfare system: A randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of housing subsidies on foster care placements and costs.

Inadequate housing and homelessness among families represent a substantial challenge for child and adolescent well-being. Child welfare services confront housing that threatens placement into foster care with little resources and evidence to guide practice. The present study provides the first rigorous test of the Family Unification Program (FUP) - a federal program that offers housing subsidies for inadequately housed families under investigation for child maltreatment. A randomized controlled trial assesses program impact on foster care placement and costs. The experiment referred intact child welfare-involved families whose inadequate housing threatened foster placement in Chicago, IL to FUP plus housing advocacy (n = 89 families with 257 children) or housing advocacy alone (n = 89 families with 257 children). Families were referred from 2011 to 2013, and administrative data recorded dates and costs of foster placements over a 3-year follow-up. Intent-to-treat analyses suggested families randomly assigned for FUP exhibited slower increases in rates of foster placement following housing intervention compared with families referred for housing advocacy alone. The program generates average savings of nearly $500 per family per year to the foster care system. Housing subsidies provide the foster care system small but significant benefits for keeping homeless families together. Findings inform the design of a coordinated child welfare response to housing insecurity.

Housing and Child Welfare: Emerging Evidence and Implications for Scaling up Services.

Inadequate housing threatens family stability in communities across the United States. This study reviews emerging evidence on housing interventions in the context of scale-up for the child welfare system. In child welfare, scale-up refers to the extent to which fully implemented interventions sustainably alleviate family separations associated with housing instability. It incorporates multiple aspects beyond traditional measures of effectiveness including costs, potential reach, local capacities for implementation, and fit within broader social services. The framework further encompasses everyday circumstances faced by service providers, program administrators, and policymakers who allocate resources under conditions of scarcity and uncertainty. The review of current housing interventions reveals a number of systemic constraints for scale-up in child welfare. Reliance on rental assistance programs limits capacity to address demand, while current practices that target the most vulnerable families may inadvertently diminish effectiveness of the intervention and increase overall demand. Alternative approaches that focus on homelessness prevention and early intervention must be tested in conjunction with community initiatives to increase accessibility of affordable housing. By examining system performance over time, the scalability framework provides an opportunity for more efficient coordination of housing services within and outside of the child welfare system.

The Effectiveness of Psychosocial Interventions Delivered by Teachers in Schools: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The growing mental health needs of students within schools have resulted in teachers increasing their involvement in the delivery of school-based, psychosocial interventions. Current research reports mixed findings concerning the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions delivered by teachers for mental health outcomes. This article presents a systematic review and meta-analysis that examined the effectiveness of school-based psychosocial interventions delivered by teachers on internalizing and externalizing outcomes and the moderating factors that influence treatment effects on these outcomes. Nine electronic databases, major journals, and gray literature (e.g., websites, conference abstract) were searched and field experts were contacted to locate additional studies. Twenty-four studies that met the study inclusion criteria were coded into internalizing or externalizing outcomes and further analyzed using robust variance estimation in meta-regression. Both publication and risk of bias of studies were further assessed. The results showed statistically significant reductions in students' internalizing outcomes (d = .133, 95% CI [.002, .263]) and no statistical significant effect for externalizing outcomes (d = .15, 95% CI [-.037, .066]). Moderator analysis with meta-regression revealed that gender (%male, b = -.017, p < .05), race (% Caucasian, b = .002, p < .05), and the tier of intervention (b = .299, p = .06) affected intervention effectiveness. This study builds on existing literature that shows that teacher-delivered Tier 1 interventions are effective interventions but also adds to this literature by showing that interventions are more effective with internalizing outcomes than on the externalizing outcomes. Moderator analysis also revealed treatments were more effective with female students for internalizing outcomes and more effective with Caucasian students for externalizing outcomes.