Prediction of adolescent weight status by machine learning: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent weight problems have become a growing public health concern, making early prediction of non-normal weight status crucial for effective prevention. However, few temporal prediction tools for adolescent four weight status have been developed. This study aimed to predict the short- and long-term weight status of Hong Kong adolescents and assess the importance of predictors. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study of adolescents was conducted using data from a territory-wide voluntary annual health assessment service provided by the Department of Health in Hong Kong. Using diet habits, physical activity, psychological well-being, and demographics, we generated six prediction models for successive weight status (normal, overweight, obese and underweight) using multiclass Decision Tree, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, eXtreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated by multiple standard classifier metrics and the overall accuracy. Predictors' importance was assessed using Shapley values. RESULTS: 442,898 Primary 4 (P4, Grade 4 in the US) and 344,186 in Primary 6 (P6, Grade 6 in the US) students, with followed up until their Secondary 6 (Grade 12 in the US) during the academic years 1995/96 to 2014/15 were included. The XG Boosts model consistently outperformed all other model in predicting the long-term weight status at S6 from P4 or P6. It achieved an overall accuracy of 0.72 or 0.74, a micro-averaging AUC of 0.92 or 0.93, and a macro-averaging AUC of 0.83 or 0.86, respectively. XG Boost also demonstrated accurate predictions for each predicted weight status, surpassing the AUC values obtained by other models. Weight, height, sex, age, frequency and hours of aerobic exercise were consistently the most important predictors for both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The machine learning approaches accurately predict adolescent weight status in both short- and long-term. The developed multiclass model that utilizing easy-assessed variables enables accurate long-term prediction on weight status, which can be used by adolescents and parents for self-prediction when applied in health care system. The interpretable models may help to provide the early and individualized interventions suggestions for adolescents with weight problems particularly.

Review on the screening of urine glucose for early diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus in school children and adolescents with obesity in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are growing health concerns. Since 2005, Student Health Service (SHS) and Hong Kong Paediatric Society formulated a protocol on urine glucose screening (UGS) for early diagnosis of T2DM in students with obesity in Hong Kong. This study reviews students with T2DM captured by this screening program and compare the data with the Hong Kong Children Diabetes Registry (HKCDR) database, to see if the UGS program facilitates early diagnosis of T2DM. METHODS: Students between the ages of 10-18 years old with age- and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) >97th percentile who attended SHS between the school years from 2005/06 to 2017/18 were recruited for UGS. Those tested positive for random urine glucose underwent diagnostic testing for T2DM according to ADA guidelines. Demographic data and investigatory results from UGS and HKCDR within the same time period were compared. RESULTS: A total of 216,526 students completed UGS in the said period; 415 (0.19 %) students were tested positive for urine glucose of which 121 students were diagnosed with T2DM. UGS picked up 23 % of the newly diagnosed T2DM cases. When compared to the HKCDR database, students diagnosed via UGS were significantly younger, less obese, and had fewer diabetic related complications. The negative predictive value of UGS is high and can effectively rule out T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: Urine glucose screening is an inexpensive and simple test that allows for early diagnosis of T2DM among obese school students. Other methods including POCT HbA1c can be explored to improve program effectiveness.

Worsening trends in self-rated health and correlates in Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong: a population-based panel study from 1999/2000 to 2014/15.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the 15-year secular trends of self-rated health (SRH) and correlates in Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong. DESIGN: A territory-wide population-based panel data study. SETTING: Anonymised records of the annual health examination from the Student Health Service, Department of Health in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: 397 324 students in Secondary 2 (US grade 8), 335 902 in Secondary 4 and 113 892 in Secondary 6 during the academic year 1999/2000 and 2014/15. OUTCOME MEASURES: SRH and lifestyles were self-reported using standardised questionnaires. Sex-standardised and age-standardised prevalence of very poor/poor SRH and its secular annual changes across sex, grade, weight status, breakfast habits, and frequency/duration of aerobic exercises were examined. Their disparities over time were examined by interactions with the academic year in generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of very poor/poor SRH increased from 9.3% (95% CI: 8.9% to 9.7%) in 1999/2000 to 15.5% (15.1% to 15.8%) in 2014/15. Very poor/poor SRH was more prevalent in girls (adjusted OR: 1.02), in those having unemployed parents (1.29), being overweight (1.42) or obese (2.62), eating breakfast away from home (1.27) and skipping breakfast (1.49) or doing <1 time/week or ≤60 min/week aerobic exercises (1.78 and 1.88, respectively) than others. The corresponding disparities increased over time (ratios of OR: 1.006-1.042). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing prevalence of very poor/poor SRH from 1999/2000 to 2014/15 was found among Hong Kong Chinese adolescents, which was greater in girls, adolescents being overweight/obese and those having unemployed parents or unhealthy lifestyles. Strategies to reduce health inequality should consider multiple factors, especially modifiable factors including lifestyles.

Late-onset or chronic overweight/obesity predicts low self-esteem in early adolescence: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: How weight status changes with time may affect self-esteem was seldom studied. We identified the distinct trajectories of overweight/obesity over age and assessed their associations with different domains of self-esteem in Hong Kong Chinese children. METHODS: Territory-wide longitudinal data of 48,558 children (girls: 50.0%; 6.3 ± 0.51 years) studying Primary 1 in the academic cohorts of 1995/96 and 1996/97 followed till Primary 6 were obtained from the Student Health Service of Hong Kong. Weight was annually measured and categorized as underweight/normal and overweight/obese and self-esteem was measured in Primary 6. Distinct trajectories of weight status were first identified using growth mixture modeling and their associations with low self-esteem were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Four distinct overweight/obesity trajectories were identified: never (76.8%), late-onset (8.1%), early-onset (4.2%) and chronic (10.9%) overweight/obesity. Compared with children who were never overweight/obese, more of those in the late-onset or chronic overweight/obesity group showed low self-esteem and specific domains including general, social and academic/school-related (adjusted odds ratios: 1.20 - 1.43, all P < 0.001) except parent/home-related self-esteem (P = 0.36), whereas children being in the early-onset overweight/obesity group showed no significant difference (P ≥ 0.53) except a lower risk of low social self-esteem (adjusted odds ratio = 0.82, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Late-onset or chronic overweight/obesity predicted low general, social and academic/school-related self-esteem. Children who successfully reduced weight may have equal levels of self-esteem or even better social self-esteem than those being always underweight/normal weight. Overweight/obese children had a vulnerability to self-esteem in non-domestic environments.

Skipping Breakfast and Eating Breakfast Away From Home Were Prospectively Associated With Emotional and Behavioral Problems in 115,217 Chinese Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Breakfast is deemed the most important meal of the day. We examined the prospective associations of breakfast habits with emotional/behavioral problems in adolescents and potential effect modification. METHODS: 115,217 Primary 6 students (United States Grade 6; mean age, 11.9; standard deviation [SD], 0.59 years) who attended the Student Health Service of Department of Health in Hong Kong in 2004/05, 2006/07, 2008/09 were followed till Secondary 6 (United States Grade 12). Emotional/behavioral problems were biennially examined using Youth Self-Report since Secondary 2 (United States Grade 8). Lifestyles were biennially examined using standardized questionnaires since Primary 6. Prospective associations of breakfast habit with emotional/behavioral problems and potential effect modification were examined using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Compared with eating breakfast at home, eating breakfast away from home was significantly associated with total emotional/behavioral problems and seven syndromes, including withdrawal, somatic complaints, anxiety/depression, thought problems, attention problems, delinquent behaviors, and aggressive behaviors (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] 1.22-2.04), while skipping breakfast showed stronger associations with the above problems and social problems (AORs 1.34-2.29). Stronger associations were observed in younger students for total and attention problems (P < 0.03) and in those with lower weight status for delinquent behaviors (P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Eating breakfast away from home and especially skipping breakfast were prospectively associated with adolescent emotional/behavioral problems. The associations weakened with increasing age for total emotional/behavioral and attention problems, and weakened with higher weight status for delinquent behaviors, highlighting the vulnerability of younger and underweight children. If the associations are causal, increasing home breakfast may reduce adolescent emotional/behavioral problems and benefit psychosocial health.

Using Ultrasound to Screen for Scoliosis to Reduce Unnecessary Radiographic Radiation: A Prospective Diagnostic Accuracy Study on 442 Schoolchildren.

Scoliosis screening is important for timely initiation of brace treatment to mitigate curve progression in skeletally immature children and adolescents. School scoliosis screening programs in Hong Kong follow the protocol of referring children screened positive with a scoliometer and Moiré topography for confirmatory standard radiography. Despite being highly sensitive (88%) in detecting those who require specialist referral, the screening program was found to have a false-positive rate >50%, which could lead to unnecessary X-ray radiation. Radiation-free ultrasound has been reported to be valid and reliable for quantitative assessment of curve severity in scoliosis patients. The aim of this prospective diagnostic accuracy study was to determine the accuracy of ultrasound in determining the threshold of referral that requires X-ray for children screened positive with the scoliometer and Moiré topography. Our study recruited 442 schoolchildren with a mean Cobb angle of 14.0 ± 6.6°. The sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound in predicting the correct referral status, confirmed by X-ray, were 92.3% and 51.6%, with positive and negative predictive values of 29.0% and 96.9%, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed area under the curve values of 0.735 for ultrasound alone and 0.832 for ultrasound in combination with measurement of angle of trunk rotation. The finding supports the accuracy of using ultrasound to determine referral status, which could result in a >50% reduction of unnecessary radiation for children undergoing scoliosis screening.

Increasing socioeconomic disparities in sedentary behaviors in Chinese children.

BACKGROUND: Sedentary behaviors are prevalent in Chinese children, however, the studies on their trends and socioeconomic disparities are scarce. We examined the time trends of daily television (TV) viewing and video game playing and the associated socioeconomic factors in Chinese children in Hong Kong, the most developed and westernized city in China. METHODS: In a panel data study involving 538,300 primary four and 510,294 primary six students from 1999/2000 to 2008/09, data on socioeconomic status, sedentary behaviors (TV viewing and video game playing) and other lifestyle habits were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Trends in sedentary behaviors over time were assessed. Their socioeconomic disparities were examined by interactions in generalized estimating equations with the adjustment for weight status and extracurricular physical activities. RESULTS: The age and sex-standardized prevalence of ≥2 h daily TV viewing decreased from 51.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 51.1-51.8%) in 1999/2000 to 43.8% (95% CI 43.4-44.2%) in 2008/09 (P for trend < 0.001), whereas that of ≥1 h daily video game playing increased from 8.2% (95% CI 7.9-8.4%) to 22.4% (95% CI 22.0-22.7%). Both sedentary behaviors were more prevalent in boys than girls, but the disparities decreased over time (Ratio of odds ratio [ROR] = 0.996 and 0.924 for TV viewing and video game playing, respectively). In contrast, both sedentary behaviors were increasingly more prevalent in children whose parents had lower education levels or non-managerial/professional occupations (ROR 1.006-1.082). CONCLUSIONS: Children in lower socioeconomic families in Hong Kong were increasingly at risk of having sedentary behaviors over years and thus deserve more attention. Effective strategies targeting children and/or their parents of lower socioeconomic status are needed to reduce sedentary behaviors.

Childhood Obesity and Physical Activity-Friendly School Environments.

OBJECTIVE: Childhood obesity may be related to school environment, but previous studies often focused on food environment only. This study aimed to examine the relationship between school physical activity environment and childhood obesity. STUDY DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study with multilevel data collected on school physical activity environment using teacher questionnaires, students' growth, and obesity status from electronic health records, and neighborhood socioeconomic status from census data. RESULTS: This study included 208 280 students (6-18 years of age) from 438 schools (45% of Hong Kong). Prevalence of obesity was 5.0%. After controlling for socioeconomic status and intraschool correlation, robust Poisson regression revealed a reduced obesity risk associated with higher teachers' perceived physical activity benefits (risk ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99, P = .02), physical activity teaching experience (0.93, 0.91-0.96, P < .001), school campus size (0.93, 0.87-0.99, P = .02), physical activity ethos (0.91, 0.88-0.94, P < .001), number of physical activity programs (0.93, 0.90-0.96, P < .001), and physical activity facilities (0.87, 0.84-0.90, P < .001). Students in schools with at least 3 physical activity-friendly environmental factors (11.7%) had a much lower risk of obesity (0.68, 0.62-0.75, P < .001) than those without (23.7%). CONCLUSIONS: A physical activity-friendly school environment is associated with lower risk of obesity. School physical activity environment should be considered in future epidemiologic and intervention studies.