Progression of coronary artery calcification seems to be inevitable, but predictable - results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study.

AIM: Coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a sign of atherosclerosis, can be detected and progression quantified using computed tomography (CT). We develop a tool for predicting CAC progression. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 3481 participants (45-74 years, 53.1% women) CAC percentiles at baseline (CACb) and after five years (CAC5y) were evaluated, demonstrating progression along gender-specific percentiles, which showed exponentially shaped age-dependence. Using quantile regression on the log-scale (log(CACb+1)) we developed a tool to individually predict CAC5y, and compared to observed CAC5y. The difference between observed and predicted CAC5y (log-scale, mean±SD) was 0.08±1.11 and 0.06±1.29 in men and women. Agreement reached a kappa-value of 0.746 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.760) and concordance correlation (log-scale) of 0.886 (0.879-0.893). Explained variance of observed by predicted log(CAC5y+1) was 80.1% and 72.0% in men and women, and 81.0 and 73.6% including baseline risk factors. Evaluating the tool in 1940 individuals with CACb>0 and CACb<400 at baseline, of whom 242 (12.5%) developed CAC5y>400, yielded a sensitivity of 59.5%, specificity 96.1%, (+) and (-) predictive values of 68.3% and 94.3%. A pre-defined acceptance range around predicted CAC5y contained 68.1% of observed CAC5y; only 20% were expected by chance. Age, blood pressure, lipid-lowering medication, diabetes, and smoking contributed to progression above the acceptance range in men and, excepting age, in women. CONCLUSION: CAC nearly inevitably progresses with limited influence of cardiovascular risk factors. This allowed the development of a mathematical tool for prediction of individual CAC progression, enabling anticipation of the age when CAC thresholds of high risk are reached.

Gender-specific association of coronary artery calcium and lipoprotein parameters: the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary atherosclerosis can be detected by computed tomography. The amount of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is related to cardiovascular risk factors, the strength of the gender specific relation between lipoprotein parameters and CAC has not extensively been studied. Especially, the role of routinely determined lipoproteins in contrast to less common and computed lipid parameters (e.g. ratios) remains to be clarified. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study cohort (n = 3956, 52% women, age 45-75 years) was randomly selected from three cities of a German metropolitan area. Lipoproteins-low-and high density lipoprotein (LDL-C/HDL-C), total cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-1 and B (apoA-1/apoB) as well as lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)) were measured, while non-HDL-C was calculated. All participants received an electron-beam computed tomography (EBCT) for quantification of CAC. Adjusted for age and cardiovascular risk factors, CAC increased by a factor of 1.97 (1.51-2.57, 95% CI) and 1.94 (1.53-2.45, 95% CI) comparing the fourth to the first quartile of LDL-C for men and women, respectively. This association with LDL-C was also found after dichotomization of CAC at thresholds >0, ≥ 100 and ≥ 400. The best association of CAC was, however, found to be apoB and the second best was non HDL-C, in both men and women. For apoB, the model including all risk factors reached an explained variance for CAC of 20.2% in men and of 21.6% in women. When using LDL-C as a given parameter according to the current practice and advice, HDL-C in men and apoB in women provided an additional but small benefit. CONCLUSION: ApoB showed the best association with CAC compared to all other tested lipoproteins. Neither the ratio LDL-C/HDL-C nor apoB/apoA-1, or Lp(a) revealed a closer association with CAC. While lipoproteins are related to CAC more closely in women than in men, their association with CAC is, however, not particularly strong. Our results may influence primary and secondary prevention advices in order to improve detection of subclinical atherosclerosis, for which lipoprotein parameters can only play a minor role.

Subclinical coronary atherosclerosis predicts cardiovascular risk in different stages of hypertension: result of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

Prehypertension is a frequent condition and has been demonstrated to increase cardiovascular risk. However, the association with coronary atherosclerosis as part of target organ damage is not well understood. We investigated the cross-sectional relationship and longitudinal outcome between blood pressure categories and coronary artery calcification (CAC), quantified by electron beam computed tomography, in 4181 participants from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study cohort. At baseline, we observed a continuous increase in calcium scores with increasing blood pressure categories. During a median follow-up period of 7.18 years, 115 primary end points (2.8%; fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction) and 152 secondary end points (3.6%; stroke and coronary revascularization) occurred. We observed a continuous increase in age- and risk factor-adjusted secondary endpoints (hazard ratios [95% CI]) with increasing blood pressure categories (referent: normotension) in men: prehypertension, 1.80 (0.53-6.13); stage 1 hypertension, 2.27 (0.66-7.81); and stage 2 hypertension, 4.10 (1.27-13.24) and in women: prehypertension, 1.13 (0.34-3.74); stage 1 hypertension, 2.14 (0.67-6.85); and stage 2 hypertension, 3.33 (1.24-8.90), respectively, but not in primary endpoints. Cumulative event rates were determined by blood pressure categories and the CAC. In prehypertension, the adjusted hazard ratios for all of the events were, for CAC 1 to 99, 2.05 (0.80-5.23; P=0.13); 100 to 399, 3.12 (1.10-8.85; P=0.03); and ≥400, 7.72 (2.67-22.27; P=0.0002). Risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in hypertension but also in prehypertension depends on the degree of CAC. This marker of target-organ damage might be included, when lifestyle modification and pharmacotherapeutic effects in prehypertensive individuals are tested to avoid exposure to risk and increase benefit.