Monitoring the status of selected health related sustainable development goals: methods and projections to 2030.

Background: Monitoring Sustainable Development Goal indicators (SDGs) and their targets plays an important role in understanding and advocating for improved health outcomes for all countries. We present the United Nations (UN) Inter-agency groups' efforts to support countries to report on SDG health indicators, project progress towards 2030 targets and build country accountability for action. Objective: We highlight common principles and practices of each Inter-agency group and the progress made towards SDG 3 targets using seven health indicators as examples. The indicators used provide examples of best practice for modelling estimates and projections using standard methods, transparent data collection and country consultations. Methods: Practices common to the UN agencies include multi-UN agency participation, expert groups to advise on estimation methods, transparent publication of methods and data inputs, use of UN-derived population estimates, country consultations, and a common reporting platform to present results. Our seven examples illustrate how estimates, using mostly Bayesian models, make use of country data to track progress towards SDG targets for 2030. Results: Progress has been made over the past decade. However, none of the seven indicators are on track to achieve their respective SDG targets by 2030. Accelerated efforts are needed, especially in low- and middle-income countries, to reduce the burden of maternal, child, communicable and noncommunicable disease mortality, and to provide access to modern methods of family planning to all women. Conclusion: Our analysis shows the benefit of UN interagency monitoring which prioritizes transparent country data sources, UN population estimates and life tables, and rigorous but replicable modelling methods. Countries are supported to build capacity for data collection, analysis and reporting. Through these monitoring efforts we support countries to tackle even the most intransient health issues, including the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 that is reversing the hard-earned gains of all countries.

The Economic Burden of Malaria: Revisiting the Evidence.

A portion of the economics literature has long debated about the relative importance of historical, institutional, geographical, and health determinants of economic growth. In 2001, Gallup and Sachs quantified the association between malaria and the level and growth of per capita income over the period 1965-1995 in a cross-country regression framework. We took a contemporary look at Gallup and Sachs' seminal work in the context of significant progress in malaria control achieved globally since 2000. Focusing on the period 2000-2017, we used the latest data available on malaria case incidence and other determinants of economic growth, as well as macro-econometric methods that are now the professional norm. In our preferred specification using a fixed-effects model, a 10% decrease in malaria incidence was associated with an increase in income per capita of nearly 0.3% on average and a 0.11 percentage point faster per capita growth per annum. Greater average income gains were expected among higher burden countries and those with lower income. Growth of industries with the same level of labor intensity was found to be significantly slower in countries with higher malaria incidence. To analyze the causal impact of malaria on economic outcomes, we used malaria treatment failure and pyrethroid-only insecticide resistance as exogeneous instruments in two-stage least squares estimations. Despite several methodological challenges, as expected in these types of analyses, our findings confirm the intrinsic link between malaria and economic growth and underscore the importance of malaria control in the agenda for sustainable development.

National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000-15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: India had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000-15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets. METHODS: We used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1-59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1-59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279-0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168-0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116-0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1-59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target. INTERPRETATION: Efforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000-15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prioritizing the scale-up of interventions for malaria control and elimination.

BACKGROUND: A core set of intervention and treatment options are recommended by the World Health Organization for use against falciparum malaria. These are treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and chemoprevention options. Both domestic and foreign aid funding for these tools is limited. When faced with budget restrictions, the introduction and scale-up of intervention and treatment options must be prioritized. METHODS: Estimates of the cost and impact of different interventions were combined with a mathematical model of malaria transmission to estimate the most cost-effective prioritization of interventions. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was used to select between scaling coverage of current interventions or the introduction of an additional intervention tool. RESULTS: Prevention, in the form of vector control, is highly cost effective and scale-up is prioritized in all scenarios. Prevention reduces malaria burden and therefore allows treatment to be implemented in a more cost-effective manner by reducing the strain on the health system. The chemoprevention measures (seasonal malaria chemoprevention and intermittent preventive treatment in infants) are additional tools that, provided sufficient funding, are implemented alongside treatment scale-up. Future tools, such as RTS,S vaccine, have impact in areas of higher transmission but were introduced later than core interventions. CONCLUSIONS: In a programme that is budget restricted, it is essential that investment in available tools be effectively prioritized to maximize impact for a given investment. The cornerstones of malaria control: vector control and treatment, remain vital, but questions of when to scale and when to introduce other interventions must be rigorously assessed. This quantitative analysis considers the scale-up or core interventions to inform decision making in this area.

Mapping changes in housing in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2015.

Access to adequate housing is a fundamental human right, essential to human security, nutrition and health, and a core objective of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals1,2. Globally, the housing need is most acute in Africa, where the population will more than double by 2050. However, existing data on housing quality across Africa are limited primarily to urban areas and are mostly recorded at the national level. Here we quantify changes in housing in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2015 by combining national survey data within a geostatistical framework. We show a marked transformation of housing in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2015, with the prevalence of improved housing (with improved water and sanitation, sufficient living area and durable construction) doubling from 11% (95% confidence interval, 10-12%) to 23% (21-25%). However, 53 (50-57) million urban Africans (47% (44-50%) of the urban population analysed) were living in unimproved housing in 2015. We provide high-resolution, standardized estimates of housing conditions across sub-Saharan Africa. Our maps provide a baseline for measuring change and a mechanism to guide interventions during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Global investment targets for malaria control and elimination between 2016 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Access to malaria control interventions falls short of universal health coverage. The Global Technical Strategy for malaria targets at least 90% reduction in case incidence and mortality rates, and elimination in 35 countries by 2030. The potential to reach these targets will be determined in part by investments in malaria. This study estimates the financing required for malaria control and elimination over the 2016-2030 period. METHODS: A mathematical transmission model was used to explore the impact of increasing intervention coverage on burden and costs. The cost analysis took a public provider perspective covering all 97 malaria endemic countries and territories in 2015. All control interventions currently recommended by the WHO were considered. Cost data were sourced from procurement databases, the peer-reviewed literature, national malaria strategic plans, the WHO-CHOICE project and key informant interviews. RESULTS: Annual investments of $6.4 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI $4.5-$9.0 billion)) by 2020, $7.7 billion (95% UI $5.4-$10.9 billion) by 2025 and $8.7 billion (95% UI $6.0-$12.3 billion) by 2030 will be required to reach the targets set in the Global Technical Strategy. These are equivalent to annual investment per person at risk of malaria of US$3.90 by 2020, US$4.30 by 2025 and US$4.40 by 2030, compared with US$2.30 if interventions were sustained at current coverage levels. The 20 countries with the highest burden in 2015 will require 88% of the total investment. CONCLUSIONS: Given the challenges in increasing domestic and international funding, the efficient use of currently available resources should be a priority.

Framework for Evaluating the Health Impact of the Scale-Up of Malaria Control Interventions on All-Cause Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Concerted efforts from national and international partners have scaled up malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, diagnostics, prompt and effective treatment of malaria cases, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scale-up warrants an assessment of its health impact to guide future efforts and investments; however, measuring malaria-specific mortality and the overall impact of malaria control interventions remains challenging. In 2007, Roll Back Malaria's Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group proposed a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of full-coverage malaria control interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-burden SSA countries. Recently, several evaluations have contributed new ideas and lessons to strengthen this plausibility design. This paper harnesses that new evaluation experience to expand the framework, with additional features, such as stratification, to examine subgroups most likely to experience improvement if control programs are working; the use of a national platform framework; and analysis of complete birth histories from national household surveys. The refined framework has shown that, despite persisting data challenges, combining multiple sources of data, considering potential contributions from both fundamental and proximate contextual factors, and conducting subnational analyses allows identification of the plausible contributions of malaria control interventions on malaria morbidity and mortality.

Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003-2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most effective treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. A commonly used indicator for monitoring and assessing progress in coverage of malaria treatment is the proportion of children younger than 5 years with reported fever in the previous 14 days who have received an ACT. We propose an improved indicator that incorporates parasite infection status (as assessed by a rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), which is available in recent household surveys. In this study we estimated the annual proportion of children younger than 5 years with fever and a positive RDT in Africa who received an ACT in 2003-15. METHODS: Our modelling study used cross-sectional data on treatment for fever and RDT status for children younger than 5 years compiled from all nationally available representative household surveys (the Malaria Indicator Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys) across sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2015. Estimates for the proportion of children younger than 5 years with a fever within the previous 14 days and P falciparum infection assessed by RDT who received an ACT were incorporated in a generalised additive mixed model, including data on ACT distributions, to estimate coverage across all countries and time periods. We did random effects meta-analyses to examine individual, household, and community effects associated with ACT coverage. FINDINGS: We obtained data on 201 704 children younger than 5 years from 103 surveys (22 MIS, 61 DHS, and 20 MICS) across 33 countries. RDT results were available for 40 of these surveys including 40 261 (20%) children, and we predicted RDT status for the remaining 161 443 (80%) children. Our results showed that ACT coverage in children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection increased across sub-Saharan Africa in 2003-15, but even in 2015, only 19·7% (95% CI 15·6-24·8) of children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection received an ACT. In meta-analyses, children younger than 5 years were more likely to receive an ACT for fever and P falciparum infection if they lived in an urban area (vs rural area; odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06-1·31), had household wealth above the national median (vs wealth below the median; OR 1·26, 1·16-1·39), had a caregiver with any education (vs no education; OR 1·31, 1·22-1·41), had a household insecticide-treated net (ITN; vs no ITN; OR 1·21, 1·13-1·29), were older than 2 years (vs ≤2 years; OR 1·09, 1·01-1·17), or lived in an area with a higher mean P falciparum prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (OR 1·12, 1·02-1·23). In the subgroup of children for whom treatment was sought, those who sought treatment in the public sector were more likely to receive an ACT (vs the private sector; OR 3·18, 2·67-3·78). INTERPRETATION: Despite progress during the 2003-15 malaria programme, ACT treatment for children with malaria remains unacceptably low. More work is needed at the country level to understand how health-care access, service delivery, and ACT supply might be improved to ensure appropriate treatment for all children with malaria. FUNDING: US President's Malaria Initiative and Medicines for Malaria Venture.

Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning. METHODS: Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria. RESULTS: In projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts. DISCUSSION: Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Plasmodium vivax Control.

The continued success of efforts to reduce the global malaria burden will require sustained funding for interventions specifically targeting Plasmodium vivax The optimal use of limited financial resources necessitates cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of strategies for diagnosing and treating P. vivax and vector control tools. Herein, we review the existing published evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions for controlling P. vivax, identifying nine studies focused on diagnosis and treatment and seven studies focused on vector control. Although many of the results from the much more extensive P. falciparum literature can be applied to P. vivax, it is not always possible to extrapolate results from P. falciparum-specific cost-effectiveness analyses. Notably, there is a need for additional studies to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of radical cure with primaquine for the prevention of P. vivax relapses with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase testing.

Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa: effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling.

BACKGROUND: Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool. METHODS: The dynamic Plasmodium falciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings. RESULTS: Selected (best) GLMs explained 94-97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86-97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74-95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5-7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached. CONCLUSION: Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control.

Global Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax.

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread human malaria, putting 2.5 billion people at risk of infection. Its unique biological and epidemiological characteristics pose challenges to control strategies that have been principally targeted against Plasmodium falciparum Unlike P. falciparum, P. vivax infections have typically low blood-stage parasitemia with gametocytes emerging before illness manifests, and dormant liver stages causing relapses. These traits affect both its geographic distribution and transmission patterns. Asymptomatic infections, high-risk groups, and resulting case burdens are described in this review. Despite relatively low prevalence measurements and parasitemia levels, along with high proportions of asymptomatic cases, this parasite is not benign. Plasmodium vivax can be associated with severe and even fatal illness. Spreading resistance to chloroquine against the acute attack, and the operational inadequacy of primaquine against the multiple attacks of relapse, exacerbates the risk of poor outcomes among the tens of millions suffering from infection each year. Without strategies accounting for these P. vivax-specific characteristics, progress toward elimination of endemic malaria transmission will be substantially impeded.

Malaria: Global progress 2000 - 2015 and future challenges.

BACKGROUND: 2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. FINDINGS: Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 % of the reductions in numbers of cases in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to malaria interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in malaria incidence and mortality rates have been made in every WHO region and almost every country. However, decreases in malaria case incidence and mortality rates were slowest in countries that had the largest numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2000; reductions in incidence need to be greatly accelerated in these countries to achieve future malaria targets. Progress is made challenging because malaria is concentrated in countries and areas with the least resourced health systems and the least ability to pay for system improvements. Malaria interventions are nevertheless highly cost-effective and have not only led to significant reductions in the incidence of the disease but are estimated to have saved about US$ 900 million in malaria case management costs to public providers in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2014. Investments in malaria programmes can not only reduce malaria morbidity and mortality, thereby contributing to the health targets of the Sustainable Development Goals, but they can also transform the well-being and livelihood of some of the poorest communities across the globe.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. METHODS: We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011-13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006-08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. FINDINGS: With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19-29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27-61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56-64) and mortality rates by 74% (67-82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70-77) and mortality rates by 81% (76-87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011-13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71-80) and mortality rates by 46% (39-51) by 2020. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development.

Coverage and system efficiencies of insecticide-treated nets in Africa from 2000 to 2017.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%-26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20-28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.

China's 1-3-7 surveillance and response strategy for malaria elimination: Is case reporting, investigation and foci response happening according to plan?

BACKGROUND: The China's 1-3-7 strategy was initiated and extensively adopted in different types of counties (geographic regions) for reporting of malaria cases within 1 day, their confirmation and investigation within 3 days, and the appropriate public health response to prevent further transmission within 7 days. Assessing the level of compliance to the 1-3-7 strategy at the county level is a first step towards determining whether the surveillance and response strategy is happening according to plan. This study assessed if the time-bound targets of the 1-3-7 strategy were being sustained over time. Such information would be useful to improve implementation of the 1-3-7 strategy in China. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved country-wide programmatic data for the period January 1st 2013 to June 30th 2014. Data variables were extracted from the national malaria information system and included socio-demographic information, type of county, date of diagnosis, date of reporting, date of case investigation, case classification (indigenous, or imported, or unknown), focus investigation, date of reactive case detection (RACD), and date of indoor residual spraying (IRS). Summary statistics and proportions were used and comparisons between groups were assessed using the chi-square test. Level of significance was set at a P-value ≤ 0.05. RESULTS: Of a total of 5,688 malaria cases from 731 counties, there were 55 (1 %) indigenous cases (only in Type 1 and Type 2 counties) and 5,633 (99 %) imported cases from all types of counties. There was no delay in reporting malaria cases by type of county. In terms of case investigation, 97.5 % cases were investigated within 3 days with the proportion of delays (1.5 %) in type 2 counties, being significantly lower than type 1 counties (4.1 %). Regarding active foci, 96.4 % were treated by RACD and/or IRS. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of 1-3-7 strategy was encouraging but identified some challenges that if addressed can further improve implementation.

Origin of malaria cases: a 7-year audit of global trends in indigenous and imported cases in relation to malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Countries in the different stages of pre-elimination, elimination, and prevention of reintroduction are required to report the number of indigenous and imported malaria cases to the World Health Organization (WHO). However, these data have not been systematically analysed at the global level. OBJECTIVE: For the period 2007 to 2013, we aimed to report on 1) the proportion of countries providing data on the origin of malaria cases and 2) the origin of malaria cases in countries classified as being in the stages of pre-elimination, elimination and prevention of reintroduction. DESIGN: An observational study using annual data reported through routine health information systems to the WHO Global Malaria Programme between 2007 and 2013. RESULTS: For all countries classified as being in pre-elimination, elimination, and prevention of reintroduction in the year 2013, there has been a substantial decrease in the total number of indigenous malaria cases, from more than 15,000 cases reported in 2007 to less than 4,000 cases reported in 2013. However, the total number of imported malaria cases has increased over that time period, from 5,600 imported cases in 2007 to approximately 6,800 in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Vigilant monitoring of the numbers of imported and indigenous malaria cases at national and global levels as well as appropriate strategies to target these cases will be critical to achieve malaria eradication.

Operational research on malaria control and elimination: a review of projects published between 2008 and 2013.

A literature review for operational research on malaria control and elimination was conducted using the term 'malaria' and the definition of operational research (OR). A total of 15 886 articles related to malaria were searched between January 2008 and June 2013. Of these, 582 (3.7%) met the definition of operational research. These OR projects had been carried out in 83 different countries. Most OR studies (77%) were implemented in Africa south of the Sahara. Only 5 (1%) of the OR studies were implemented in countries in the pre-elimination or elimination phase. The vast majority of OR projects (92%) were led by international or local research institutions, while projects led by National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCP) accounted for 7.8%. With regards to the topic under investigation, the largest percentage of papers was related to vector control (25%), followed by epidemiology/transmission (16.5%) and treatment (16.3%). Only 19 (3.8%) of the OR projects were related to malaria surveillance. Strengthening the capacity of NMCPs to conduct operational research and publish its findings, and improving linkages between NMCPs and research institutes may aid progress towards malaria elimination and eventual eradication world-wide.