Air pollution and mortality for cancer of the respiratory system in Italy: an explainable artificial intelligence approach.

Respiratory system cancer, encompassing lung, trachea and bronchus cancer, constitute a substantial and evolving public health challenge. Since pollution plays a prominent cause in the development of this disease, identifying which substances are most harmful is fundamental for implementing policies aimed at reducing exposure to these substances. We propose an approach based on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) based on remote sensing data to identify the factors that most influence the prediction of the standard mortality ratio (SMR) for respiratory system cancer in the Italian provinces using environment and socio-economic data. First of all, we identified 10 clusters of provinces through the study of the SMR variogram. Then, a Random Forest regressor is used for learning a compact representation of data. Finally, we used XAI to identify which features were most important in predicting SMR values. Our machine learning analysis shows that NO, income and O3 are the first three relevant features for the mortality of this type of cancer, and provides a guideline on intervention priorities in reducing risk factors.

Insights from Explainable Artificial Intelligence of Pollution and Socioeconomic Influences for Respiratory Cancer Mortality in Italy.

Respiratory malignancies, encompassing cancers affecting the lungs, the trachea, and the bronchi, pose a significant and dynamic public health challenge. Given that air pollution stands as a significant contributor to the onset of these ailments, discerning the most detrimental agents becomes imperative for crafting policies aimed at mitigating exposure. This study advocates for the utilization of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methodologies, leveraging remote sensing data, to ascertain the primary influencers on the prediction of standard mortality rates (SMRs) attributable to respiratory cancer across Italian provinces, utilizing both environmental and socioeconomic data. By scrutinizing thirteen distinct machine learning algorithms, we endeavor to pinpoint the most accurate model for categorizing Italian provinces as either above or below the national average SMR value for respiratory cancer. Furthermore, employing XAI techniques, we delineate the salient factors crucial in predicting the two classes of SMR. Through our machine learning scrutiny, we illuminate the environmental and socioeconomic factors pertinent to mortality in this disease category, thereby offering a roadmap for prioritizing interventions aimed at mitigating risk factors.

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) detects wildfire occurrence in the Mediterranean countries of Southern Europe.

The impacts and threats posed by wildfires are dramatically increasing due to climate change. In recent years, the wildfire community has attempted to estimate wildfire occurrence with machine learning models. However, to fully exploit the potential of these models, it is of paramount importance to make their predictions interpretable and intelligible. This study is a first attempt to provide an eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework for estimating wildfire occurrence using a Random Forest model with Shapley values for interpretation. Our findings accurately detected regions with a high presence of wildfires (area under the curve 81.3%) and outlined the drivers empowering occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Furthermore, our analysis suggests the presence of anomalous hotspots. In contexts where human and natural spheres constantly intermingle and interact, the XAI framework, suitably integrated into decision support systems, could support forest managers to prevent and mitigate future wildfire disasters and develop strategies for effective fire management, response, recovery, and resilience.

Satellite data and machine learning reveal a significant correlation between NO2 and COVID-19 mortality.

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has officially spread all over the world since the beginning of 2020. Although huge efforts are addressed by scientists to shed light over the several questions raised by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, many aspects need to be clarified, yet. In particular, several studies have pointed out significant variations between countries in per-capita mortality. In this work, we investigated the association between COVID-19 mortality with climate variables and air pollution throughout European countries using the satellite remote sensing images provided by the Sentinel-5p mission. We analyzed data collected for two years of observations and extracted the concentrations of several pollutants; we used these measurements to feed a Random Forest regression. We performed a cross-validation analysis to assess the robustness of the model and compared several regression strategies. Our findings reveal a significant statistical association between air pollution (NO2) and COVID-19 mortality and a significant role played by the socio-demographic features, like the number of nurses or the hospital beds and the gross domestic product per capita.