Progression from biochemical leak to pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy. Don't cry over spilt amylase.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after distal pancreatectomy (DP), but its upgrading from biochemical leak (BL) still represents an unexplored phenomenon. This study aims at identifying risk factors of the clinical evolution from BL to grade-B POPF after DP. METHODS: Patients who underwent DP between 2015 and 2019 and who developed either BL (n = 89,56%) or BL upgraded to late B fistula (LB) after postoperative day 5 (n = 71,44%) were included. Preoperative, surgical, postoperative predictors were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Patients with LB were significantly older (61 vs 56 years, P < 0.025) and received neoadjuvant chemotherapy more frequently (22.5% vs 8.5%,P = 0.017). Extended lymphadenectomy (52.8% vs 31.0%,P = 0.006), longer operative times (OT) (307 vs 250 min,P = 0.002), greater estimated blood loss (250 vs 150 ml, P = 0.021), and the appearance of purulent fluid in surgical drains (58.4% vs 21.1%; P < 0.001) were more frequently observed in LB group. Only purulent fluid in surgical drains and longer OT were confirmed as independent predictors of BL clinical progression. CONCLUSIONS: Purulent fluid from surgical drains should be suspicious of BL upgrading. Frail patients undergoing longer interventions may represent key targets of mitigation strategies to minimize the magnitude of an incipient fistula and its increase in morbidity.

Influence of Klebsiella pneumoniae and quinolone treatment on prognosis in patients with pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: An increasing body of evidence suggests that microbiota may promote progression of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). It was hypothesized that gammaproteobacteria (such as Klebsiella pneumoniae) influence survival in PDAC, and that quinolone treatment may attenuate this effect. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of patients from the Massachusetts General Hospital (USA) and Ludwig-Maximilians-University (Germany) who underwent preoperative treatment and pancreatoduodenectomy for locally advanced or borderline resectable PDAC between January 2007 and December 2017, and for whom a bile culture was available. Associations between tumour characteristics, survival data, antibiotic use and results of intraoperative bile cultures were investigated. Survival was analysed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Analysis of a total of 211 patients revealed that an increasing number of pathogen species found in intraoperative bile cultures was associated with a decrease in progression-free survival (PFS) (-1·9 (95 per cent c.i. -3·3 to -0·5) months per species; P = 0·009). Adjuvant treatment with gemcitabine improved PFS in patients who were negative for K. pneumoniae (26·2 versus 15·3 months; P = 0·039), but not in those who tested positive (19·5 versus 13·2 months; P = 0·137). Quinolone treatment was associated with improved median overall survival (OS) independent of K. pneumoniae status (48·8 versus 26·2 months; P = 0·006) and among those who tested positive for K. pneumoniae (median not reached versus 18·8 months; P = 0·028). Patients with quinolone-resistant K. pneumoniae had shorter PFS than those with quinolone-sensitive K. pneumoniae (9·1 versus 18·8 months; P = 0·001). CONCLUSION: K. pneumoniae may promote chemoresistance to adjuvant gemcitabine, and quinolone treatment is associated with improved survival.

Risk of malignancy in small pancreatic cysts decreases over time.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cysts <15 mm without worrisome features have practically no risk of malignancy at the time of diagnosis but this can change over time. Optimal duration of follow-up is a matter of debate. We evaluated predictors of malignancy and attempted to identify a time to safely discontinue surveillance. METHODS: Bi-centric study utilizing prospectively collected databases of patients with pancreatic cysts measuring <15 mm and without worrisome features who underwent surveillance at the Massachusetts General Hospital (1988-2017) and at the University of Verona Hospital Trust (2000-2016). The risk of malignant transformation was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and parametric survival models, and predictors of malignancy were evaluated using Cox regression. RESULTS: 806 patients were identified. Median follow-up was 58 months (6-347). Over time, 58 (7.2%) cysts were resected and of those, 11 had high grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive cancer. Three additional patients had unresectable cancer for a total rate of malignancy of 1.7%. Predictors of development of malignancy included an increase in size ≥2.5 mm/year (HR = 29.54, 95% CI: 9.39-92.91, P < 0.001) and the development of worrisome features (HR = 9.17, 95% CI: 2.99-28.10, P = 0.001). Comparison of parametric survival models suggested that the risk of malignancy decreased after three years of surveillance and was lower than 0.2% after five years. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic cysts <15  mm at the time of diagnosis have a very low risk of malignant transformation. Our findings indicate the risk decreases over time. Size increase of ≥2.5 mm/year is the strongest predictor of malignancy.

An elevated CA 19-9 is associated with invasive cancer and worse survival in IPMN.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for IPMN include an elevated serum carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 among the worrisome features. However, the correlation of CA 19-9 with histological malignant features and survival is unclear. Serum CEA is also currently used for preoperative management of IPMN, although its measurement is not evidence-based. Accordingly, we aimed to assess the role of these tumor markers as predictors of malignancy in IPMN. METHODS: IPMN resected between 1998 and 2018 at Massachusetts General Hospital were analyzed. Clinical, pathological and survival data were collected and compared to preoperative levels of CA 19-9 and CEA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Cox regression analyses were performed considering cut-offs of 37 U/ml (CA 19-9) and 5 µg/l (CEA). RESULTS: Analysis of 594 patients showed that preoperative CA 19-9 levels > 37 U/ml (n = 128) were associated with an increased likelihood of invasive carcinoma when compared to normal levels (45.3% vs. 18.0%, P < 0.001), while there was no difference with respect to high-grade dysplasia (32.9% vs 31.9%, P = 0.88). The proportion of concurrent pancreatic cancer was higher in patients with CA 19-9 > 37 U/ml (17.2% vs 4.9%, P < 0.001). An elevated CA 19-9 was also associated with worse overall and disease-free survival (HR = 1.943, P = 0.007 and HR = 2.484, P < 0.001 respectively). CEA levels did not correlate with malignancy. CONCLUSION: In patients with IPMN, serum CA19-9 > 37 U/ml is associated with invasive IPMN and concurrent pancreatic cancer as well as worse survival, but not with high-grade dysplasia. Serum CEA appears to have minimal utility in the management of these patients.