The influence of risk awareness and government trust on risk perception and preparedness for natural hazards.

Risk perception is considered the primary motivator for taking preparedness actions. But people with prior experience and a high-risk perception are not necessarily more prepared. This relationship is even more complex when assessing preparedness levels for hazards with different characteristics. These inconsistent findings can be explained by how preparedness has been measured and the influence of other factors, such as trust and risk awareness. Thus, the main goal of this study was to analyze the role of risk awareness and trust in authorities on risk perception and intention to prepare for natural hazards in a coastal city in Chile. A representative sample of the city of Concepción, located in the center-south zone of Chile (n = 585), completed a survey. We measured risk awareness, risk perception, trust in authorities, and intention to prepare for two hazards: earthquakes/tsunamis and floods. Through structural equation models, we tested five hypotheses. We found that the perception of risk maintained a direct and positive influence on the intention to prepare for both hazards. The results showed that awareness and risk perception influence the intention to prepare and should be considered different concepts. Finally, trust did not significantly influence risk perception when faced with known hazards for the population. Implications for understanding the relationship between risk perception and direct experience are discussed.

Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk Perception of Natural Hazards.

Risk perception has been largely examined in studies that have aimed to explain and predict preparedness behavior in the context of natural hazards. Findings from studies on the relationship between previous experience, preparedness, and risk perception in disaster situations have been inconsistent. Hence, the main goal of this work was to explore the influence of physical and emotional experience on risk perception regarding natural hazards. This study was conducted in a statistically representative sample of the city of Iquique, in northern Chile (n = 701), who completed a survey one month after the occurrence of an earthquake and tsunami (8.2 Mw). The survey assessed the experience and preparation actions of survivors in relation to this event. Using a structural equation model, we examined nine proposed relationships, six of which were significant. The final model had an adequate fit (χ² = 752.23, df = 283, comparative fit index [CFI] = 0.90, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.049). Direct experience showed the greatest influence on risk perception: while direct physical experience (i.e., the physical and material consequences associated with the earthquake) maintained a direct positive effect on risk perception, direct emotional experience (i.e., the fear of experiencing an earthquake) produced an indirect positive effect (through worry). Emotional experience, however, did not directly influence current preparedness and risk perception. Implications for understanding the relationship between risk perception and direct experience are discussed.

Natural disaster preparedness in a multi-hazard environment: Characterizing the sociodemographic profile of those better (worse) prepared.

The growing multi-hazard environment to which millions of people in the world are exposed highlights the importance of making sure that populations are increasingly better prepared. The objective of this study was to report the levels of preparedness of a community exposed to two natural hazards and identify the primary sociodemographic characteristics of groups with different preparedness levels. A survey was conducted on 476 participants from two localities of the Atacama Region in the north of Chile during the spring of 2015. Their level of preparedness at home and work was assessed to face two types of natural hazards: earthquakes and floods.The findings show that participants are significantly better prepared to face earthquakes than floods, which sends a serious warning to local authorities, given that floods have caused the greatest human and material losses in the region's recent history of natural disasters. Men claimed to be more prepared than women to face floods, something that the authors attribute to the particular characteristics of the main employment sectors for men and women in the region. The potential contribution of large companies on preparedness levels of communities in the areas in which they operate is discussed. The sociodemographic profile of individuals with the highest levels of preparedness in an environment with multiple natural hazards are people between 30 and 59 years of age, living with their partner and school-age children. The implications of the results pertaining to institutions responsible for developing disaster risk reduction plans, policies and programs in a multi-hazard environment are discussed.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk.

Structured expert judgment to characterize uncertainty between PM2.5 exposure and mortality in Chile.

To further the understanding and implementation of expert elicitation methods in the evaluation of public policies related to air pollution, the present study's main goal was to explore the potential strengths and weaknesses of structured expert judgment (SEJ) methodology as a way to derive a C-R function for chronic PM(2.5) exposure and premature mortality in Chile. Local experts were classified in two groups according to background and experience: physicians (Group 1) and engineers (Group 2). Experts were required to provide an estimate of the true percent change in nonaccidental mortality resulting from a permanent 1 µg/m(3) reduction in PM2.5 annual average ambient concentration across the entire Chilean territory. Cooke's Classical Model was used to combine the individual experts' assessments. Experts' mortality estimations varied markedly across groups: while experts in Group 1 delivered higher estimations than those reported in major international cohort studies, estimations from Group 2 were, to varying degrees, anchored to previous studies. Accordingly, combined distributions for each group and all experts were significantly different, due to the high sensitivity of the weighted distribution to experts' performance in calibration variables. Results of this study suggest that, while the use of SEJ has great potential for estimating C-R functions for chronic exposure to PM2.5 and premature mortality and its major sources of uncertainty in countries where no studies are available, its successful implementation is conditioned by a number of factors, which are analyzed and discussed.