Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens.

Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

Genome-wide association analysis and gene set enrichment analysis with SNP data identify genes associated with 305-day milk yield in Holstein dairy cows.

Milk production traits, such as 305-day milk yield (305MY), have been under direct selection to improve production in dairy cows. Over the past 50 years, the average milk yield has nearly doubled, and over 56% of the increase is attributable to genetic improvement. As such, additional improvements in milk yield are still possible as new loci are identified. The objectives of this study were to detect SNPs and gene sets associated with 305MY in order to identify new candidate genes contributing to variation in milk production. A population of 781 primiparous Holstein cows from six central Washington dairies with records of 305MY and energy corrected milk were used to perform a genome-wide association analysis (GWAA) using the Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777 962 SNPs) to identify QTL associated with 305MY (P < 1.0 × 10-5 ). A gene set enrichment analysis with SNP data (GSEA-SNP) was performed to identify gene sets (normalized enrichment score > 3.0) and leading edge genes (LEGs) influencing 305MY. The GWAA identified three QTL comprising 34 SNPs and 30 positional candidate genes. In the GSEA-SNP, five gene sets with 58 unique and 24 shared LEGs contributed to 305MY. Identification of QTL and LEGs associated with 305MY can provide additional targets for genomic selection to continue to improve 305MY in dairy cattle.

Ecological opportunity and the origin of adaptive radiations.

Ecological opportunity--through entry into a new environment, the origin of a key innovation or extinction of antagonists--is widely thought to link ecological population dynamics to evolutionary diversification. The population-level processes arising from ecological opportunity are well documented under the concept of ecological release. However, there is little consensus as to how these processes promote phenotypic diversification, rapid speciation and adaptive radiation. We propose that ecological opportunity could promote adaptive radiation by generating specific changes to the selective regimes acting on natural populations, both by relaxing effective stabilizing selection and by creating conditions that ultimately generate diversifying selection. We assess theoretical and empirical evidence for these effects of ecological opportunity and review emerging phylogenetic approaches that attempt to detect the signature of ecological opportunity across geological time. Finally, we evaluate the evidence for the evolutionary effects of ecological opportunity in the diversification of Caribbean Anolis lizards. Some of the processes that could link ecological opportunity to adaptive radiation are well documented, but others remain unsupported. We suggest that more study is required to characterize the form of natural selection acting on natural populations and to better describe the relationship between ecological opportunity and speciation rates.