Cancer rates not explained by smoking: a county-level analysis.

BACKGROUND: Debates over the importance of "lifestyle" versus "environment" contributions to cancer have been going on for over 40 years. While it is clear that cigarette smoking is the most significant cancer risk factor, the contributions of occupational and environmental carcinogens in air, water and food remain controversial. In practice, most cancer prevention messaging focuses on reducing cigarette smoking and changing other personal behaviors with little mention of environmental chemicals, despite widespread exposure to many known carcinogens. To inform decision-making on cancer prevention priorities, we evaluated the potential impact of smoking cessation on cancer rates. METHODS: Using cancer incidence data from 612 counties in the SEER database, and county-level smoking prevalences, we investigated the impact of smoking cessation on incidence for 12 smoking-related cancer types, 2006-2016. A multilevel mixed-effects regression model quantified the association between county-level smoking prevalence and cancer incidence, adjusting for age, gender and variability over time and among counties. We simulated complete smoking cessation and estimated the effects on county-level cancer rates. RESULTS: Regression models showed the expected strong association between smoking prevalence and cancer incidence. Simulating complete smoking cessation, the incidence of the 12 smoking-related cancer types fell by 39.8% (54.9% for airways cancers; 28.9% for non-airways cancers). And, while the actual rates of smoking-related cancers from 2006 to 2016 declined (annual percent change (APC) = - 0.8, 95% CI = - 1.0 to - 0.5%), under the scenario of smoking elimination, the trend in cancer incidence at these sites was not declining (APC = - 0.1, 95% CI = - 0.4 to + 0.1%). Not all counties were predicted to benefit equally from smoking elimination, and cancer rates would fall less than 10% in some counties. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevention has produced dramatic reductions in cancer in the US for 12 major types. However, we estimate that eliminating smoking completely would not affect about 60% of cancer cases of the 12 smoking-related types, leaving no improvement in the incidence trend from 2006 to 2016. We conclude that cancer prevention strategies should focus not only on lifestyle changes but also the likely contributions of the full range of risk factors, including environmental/occupational carcinogens.

The increasing toll of adolescent cancer incidence in the US.

Cancer incidence is rising among adolescents ("teens"). The causes of the increase are unknown but studying incidence patterns and trends may produce insights into etiology. Using data from the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program we described trends of cancer incidence among teens (15-19 year olds). We reviewed and summarized incidence patterns for histologic cancer groups and the most frequently diagnosed sites of cancer among teens during 2008-2012 reported by the SEER Cancer Statistics Review. We calculated annual incidence rates for the years 1975-2012 and used linear regression analysis to evaluate trends and calculate rates of change. Incidence for all sites combined increased annually by 0.67% for males and 0.62% for females during the period 1975 through 2012 -resulting in more than a 25% increase over 38 years. The biggest annual incidence increases occurred in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (2.16% females; 1.38% males), thyroid cancer (2.12% females; 1.59% males), acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (1.73% females) and testicular cancer (1.55% males). Incidence rates for most histologic groups and sites showed steady long term increases over the 38 years of data. Despite improvements in survival, rising incidence trends mean growing numbers of young adults are undergoing painful and costly cancer treatments. A concerted research program is vital to investigate causes of steadily rising teen cancer rates.

Environmental and Economic Strategies for Primary Prevention of Cancer in Early Life.

This article summarizes the evidence for environmental toxic exposures contributing to cancers in early life, focusing on the most common cancer sites in this age group. It provides examples of widespread avoidable exposures to human carcinogens through air, water, and food and then describes recent examples of successful initiatives to reduce exposure to chemicals linked to these cancer sites, through government policy, industry initiatives, and consumer activism. State government initiatives to reduce toxic chemical exposures have made important gains; the Toxics Use Reduction Act of Massachusetts is now 25 years old and has been a major success story. There are a growing number of corporate initiatives to eliminate toxics, especially carcinogens, from the products they manufacture and sell. Another important opportunity for cancer prevention is provided by online databases that list chemicals, their toxicity, and lower-toxicity alternatives; these can be used by businesses, health care institutions, consumers, and workers to reduce exposures to chemicals of concern. The article concludes by inviting pediatricians and public health professionals to include elimination of carcinogen exposures in their work to promote primary prevention of cancer in early life.

Perfluorinated Alkyl Substances: Emerging Insights Into Health Risks.

Perfluorinated alkyl substances have been in use for over sixty years. These highly stable substances were at first thought to be virtually inert and of low toxicity. Toxicity information slowly emerged on perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate. More than thirty years ago, early studies reported immunotoxicity and carcinogenicity effects. The substances were discovered in blood samples from exposed workers, then in the general population and in community water supplies near U.S. manufacturing plants. Only recently has research publication on perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate intensified. While the toxicology database is still far from complete, carcinogenicity and immunotoxicity now appear to be relevant risks at prevalent exposure levels. Existing drinking water limits are based on less complete evidence that was available before 2008 and may be more than 100-fold too high. As risk evaluations assume that untested effects do not require regulatory attention, the greatly underestimated health risks from perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate illustrate the public health implications of assuming the safety of incompletely tested industrial chemicals.

Post-Vietnam military herbicide exposures in UC-123 Agent Orange spray aircraft.

BACKGROUND: During the Vietnam War, approximately 20 million gallons of herbicides, including ~10.5 million gallons of dioxin-contaminated Agent Orange, were sprayed by about 34 UC-123 aircraft that were subsequently returned to the United States, without decontamination or testing, to three Air Force reserve units for transport operations (~1971-1982). In 1996, observed dioxin contamination led to withdrawal of these UC-123s from public auction and to their smelting in 2009. Current Air Force and Department of Veterans Affairs policies stipulate that "dried residues" of chemical herbicides and dioxin had not lead to meaningful exposures to flight crew and maintenance personnel, who are thus ineligible for Agent Orange-related benefits or medical examinations and treatment. Sparse monitoring data are available for analysis. METHODS: Three complementary approaches for modeling potential exposures to dioxin in the post-Vietnam war aircraft were employed: (1) using 1994 and 2009 Air Force surface wipe data to model personnel exposures and to estimate dioxin body burden for dermal-oral exposure for dried residues using modified generic US Environmental Protection Agency intake algorithms; (2) comparing 1979 Air Force 2,4- dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,4-5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid air samples to saturated vapor pressure concentrations to estimate potential dioxin exposure through inhalation, ingestion and skin contact with contaminated air and dust; and (3) applying emission models for semivolatile organic compounds from contaminated surfaces to estimate airborne contamination. RESULTS: Model (1): Body-burden estimates for dermal-oral exposure were 0.92 and 5.4pg/kg body-weight-day for flight crew and maintainers. The surface wipe concentrations were nearly two orders of magnitude greater than the US Army guidance level. Model (2): measured airborne concentrations were at least five times greater than saturated vapor pressure, yielding dioxin estimates that ranged from 13.2-27.0pg/m(3), thus supporting the likelihood of dioxin dust adsorption. Model (3): Theoretical models yielded consistent estimates to Model 2, 11-49pg/m(3), where the range reflects differences in experimental value of dioxin vapor pressure and surface area used. Model (3) results also support airborne contamination and dioxin dust adsorption. CONCLUSIONS: Inhalation, ingestion and skin absorption in aircrew and maintainers were likely to have occurred during post-Vietnam use of the aircraft based on the use of three complementary models. Measured and modeled values for dioxin exceeded several available guidelines. Deposition-aerosolization-redeposition homeostasis of semivolatile organic compound contaminants, particularly dioxin, is likely to have continually existed within the aircraft. Current Air Force and Department of Veterans Affairs policies are not consistent with the available industrial hygiene measurements or with the widely accepted models for semivolatile organic compounds.

Melanoma epidemic: an analysis of six decades of data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry.

PURPOSE: Melanoma is the most commonly fatal form of skin cancer, with nearly 50,000 annual deaths worldwide. We sought to assess long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of melanoma in a state with complete and consistent registration. METHODS: We used data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry, the original National Cancer Institute SEER site, to determine trends in invasive melanoma (1950-2007), in situ melanoma (1973-2007), tumor thickness (1993-2007), mortality (1950-2007), and mortality to incidence (1950-2007) among the 19,973 and 3,635 Connecticut residents diagnosed with invasive melanoma (1950-2007) and who died as a result of melanoma (1950-2007), respectively. Main outcome measures included trends in incidence and mortality by age, sex, and birth cohort. RESULTS: In the initial period (1950-1954), a diagnosis of invasive melanoma was rare, with 1.9 patient cases per 100,000 for men and 2.6 patient cases per 100,000 for women. Between 1950 and 2007, overall incidence rates rose more than 17-fold in men (1.9 to 33.5 per 100,000) and more than nine-fold in women (2.6 to 25.3 per 100,000). During these six decades, mortality rates more than tripled in men (1.6 to 4.9 per 100,000) and doubled in women (1.3 to 2.6 per 100,000). Mortality rates were generally stable or decreasing in men and women through age 54 years. CONCLUSION: Unremitting increases in incidence and mortality of melanoma call for a nationally coordinated effort to encourage and promote innovative prevention and early-detection efforts.

Mesothelioma and employment in massachusetts: analysis of cancer registry data 1988-2003.

BACKGROUND: Cancer registries can be used to monitor mesothelioma cases and to identify occupations and industries previously and newly associated with mesothelioma-causing asbestos exposure by using standard registry data on the "usual" occupation and industry of the case. METHODS: We used the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's Standardized Occupational Industry Coding Software to code 564 mesothelioma cases for occupation and 543 for industry of the 1,424 incident mesothelioma in the Massachusetts Cancer Registry from 1988 to 2003. Additionally, we coded the occupation and industry of 80,184 comparison cancer cases (35% of comparison cases in our database). These were used to compute Standardized Morbidity Odds Ratios (SMORs). RESULTS: Seventeen occupations and 11 industries had statistically significant elevated SMORs for mesothelioma. Occupations and industries historically associated with mesothelioma remained elevated in these results. However, we also found statistically significant elevated SMORs for several occupations and industries for which there was previously weak or no association such as chemical engineers, machine operators, and automobile mechanics and machine manufacturing, railroads, and the U.S. Postal Service. CONCLUSIONS: Incident cases of mesothelioma do not appear to be declining in Massachusetts, as legacy exposures to asbestos continue to produce cases in individuals involved in shipbuilding and construction. Exposures in occupations and industries not previously associated with mesothelioma also contribute cases. Cancer registries, with improved data collection, should continue to be monitored for mesothelioma cases and asbestos exposures.

The sustainability solutions agenda.

Progress toward a more sustainable society is usually described in a "knowledge-first" framework, where science characterizes a problem in terms of its causes and mechanisms as a basis for subsequent action. Here we present a different approach-A Sustainability Solutions Agenda (SSA)-which seeks from the outset to identify the possible pathways to solutions. SSA focuses on uncovering paths to sustainability by improving current technological practice, and applying existing knowledge to identify and evaluate technological alternatives. SSA allows people and organizations to transition toward greater sustainability without sacrificing essential technological functions, and therefore does not threaten the interests that depend on those functions. Whereas knowledge-first approaches view scientific information as sufficient to convince people to take the right actions, even if those actions are perceived as against their immediate interests, SSA allows values to evolve toward greater attention to sustainability as a result of the positive experience of solving a problem.

Patterns of mortality among Wisconsin Uniroyal tire manufacturing workers.

The goal of this analysis was to determine the patterns of mortality among deceased workers of the former Uniroyal, Inc. Plant in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, who were exposed to solvents. After collecting information on cause of death, we conducted a standardized proportional mortality ratio (PMR) and proportional cancer mortality ratio (PCMR) analysis. The results of the PCMR analysis indicate that former Uniroyal workers experienced elevated mortality due to cancers, especially lymphohematopoietic cancers, compared to other Wisconsin decedents. The former workers and family members were pursuing litigation at the time of publication. We received the list of deceased workers from plaintiffs' attorney and were compensated for conducting the analysis; the funder did not directly participate in any part of the study or influence the results. We conclude there is evidence of excess lymphohematopoietic cancer in this worker cohort.

A retrospective cohort study of lung cancer incidence in nylon flock workers, 1998-2008.

During an investigation of a novel interstitial lung disease in a cohort of nylon flock workers, a former worker was found to have developed bilateral synchronous pulmonary adenocarcinomas three decades after he quit smoking, suggesting that exposures in this industry might pose excessive risk of lung cancer. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of lung cancer incidence in the original study cohort (n=162) from August 15, 1998, to August 14, 2008. The Rhode Island Cancer Registry identified cohort members with lung cancer and provided age-gender-era-specific rates of lung cancer in Rhode Island. Five cases of lung cancer occurred among cohort members versus 1.61 cases expected for a standardized incidence ratio of 3.1 (95% CI, 1.01-7.23). The observed threefold increase in lung cancer incidence could not be readily ascribed to chance, study bias, or uncontrolled confounding. Workers in this industry should be notified of their potentially increased risk of lung cancer.