Accounting for missing ticks: Use (or lack thereof) of hierarchical models in tick ecology studies.

Ixodid (hard) ticks play important ecosystem roles and have significant impacts on animal and human health via tick-borne diseases and physiological stress from parasitism. Tick occurrence, abundance, activity, and key life-history traits are highly influenced by host availability, weather, microclimate, and landscape features. As such, changes in the environment can have profound impacts on ticks, their hosts, and the spread of diseases. Researchers recognize that spatial and temporal factors influence activity and abundance and attempt to account for both by conducting replicate sampling bouts spread over the tick questing period. However, common field methods notoriously underestimate abundance, and it is unclear how (or if) tick studies model the confounding effects of factors influencing activity and abundance. This step is critical as unaccounted variance in detection can lead to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance. We performed a descriptive review to evaluate the extent to which studies account for the detection process while modeling tick data. We also categorized the types of analyses that are commonly used to model tick data. We used hierarchical models (HMs) that account for imperfect detection to analyze simulated and empirical tick data, demonstrating that inference is muddled when detection probability is not accounted for in the modeling process. Our review indicates that only 5 of 412 (1 %) papers explicitly accounted for imperfect detection while modeling ticks. By comparing HMs with the most common approaches used for modeling tick data (e.g., ANOVA), we show that population estimates are biased low for simulated and empirical data when using non-HMs, and that confounding occurs due to not explicitly modeling factors that influenced both detection and abundance. Our review and analysis of simulated and empirical data shows that it is important to account for our ability to detect ticks using field methods with imperfect detection. Not doing so leads to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance which could complicate our understanding of parasite-host relationships and the spread of tick-borne diseases. We highlight the resources available for learning HM approaches and applying them to analyzing tick data.

Epidemiology of Connectional Silence in specialist serious illness conversations.

CONTEXT: Human connection can reduce suffering and facilitate meaningful decision-making amid the often terrifying experience of hospitalization for advanced cancer. Some conversational pauses indicate human connection, but we know little about their prevalence, distribution or association with outcomes. PURPOSE: To describe the epidemiology of Connectional Silence during serious illness conversations in advanced cancer. METHODS: We audio-recorded 226 inpatient palliative care consultations at two academic centers. We identified pauses lasting 2+ seconds and distinguished Connectional Silences from other pauses, sub-categorized as either Invitational (ICS) or Emotional (ECS). We identified treatment decisional status pre-consultation from medical records and post-consultation via clinicians. Patients self-reported quality-of-life before and one day after consultation. RESULTS: Among all 6769 two-second silences, we observed 328 (4.8%) ECS and 240 (3.5%) ICS. ECS prevalence was associated with decisions favoring fewer disease-focused treatments (ORadj: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.12, 4.06). Earlier conversational ECS was associated with improved quality-of-life (p = 0.01). ICS prevalence was associated with clinicians' prognosis expectations. CONCLUSIONS: Connectional Silences during specialist serious illness conversations are associated with decision-making and improved patient quality-of-life. Further work is necessary to evaluate potential causal relationships. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Pauses offer important opportunities to advance the science of human connection in serious illness decision-making.

Conversational stories & self organizing maps: Innovations for the scalable study of uncertainty in healthcare communication.

BACKGROUND: Understanding uncertainty in participatory decision-making requires scientific attention to interaction between what actually happens when patients, families and clinicians engage one another in conversation and the multi-level contexts in which these occur. Achieving this understanding will require conceptually grounded and scalable methods for use in large samples of people representing diversity in cultures, speaking and decision-making norms, and clinical situations. DISCUSSION: Here, we focus on serious illness and describe Conversational Stories as a scalable and conceptually grounded framework for characterizing uncertainty expression in these clinical contexts. Using actual conversations from a large direct-observation cohort study, we demonstrate how natural language processing and unsupervised machine learning methods can reveal underlying types of uncertainty stories in serious illness conversations. CONCLUSIONS: Conversational Storytelling offers a meaningful analytic framework for scalable computational methods to study uncertainty in healthcare conversations.

A general model of conversational dynamics and an example application in serious illness communication.

Conversation has been a primary means for the exchange of information since ancient times. Understanding patterns of information flow in conversations is a critical step in assessing and improving communication quality. In this paper, we describe COnversational DYnamics Model (CODYM) analysis, a novel approach for studying patterns of information flow in conversations. CODYMs are Markov Models that capture sequential dependencies in the lengths of speaker turns. The proposed method is automated and scalable, and preserves the privacy of the conversational participants. The primary function of CODYM analysis is to quantify and visualize patterns of information flow, concisely summarized over sequential turns from one or more conversations. Our approach is general and complements existing methods, providing a new tool for use in the analysis of any type of conversation. As an important first application, we demonstrate the model on transcribed conversations between palliative care clinicians and seriously ill patients. These conversations are dynamic and complex, taking place amidst heavy emotions, and include difficult topics such as end-of-life preferences and patient values. We use CODYMs to identify normative patterns of information flow in serious illness conversations, show how these normative patterns change over the course of the conversations, and show how they differ in conversations where the patient does or doesn't audibly express anger or fear. Potential applications of CODYMs range from assessment and training of effective healthcare communication to comparing conversational dynamics across languages, cultures, and contexts with the prospect of identifying universal similarities and unique "fingerprints" of information flow.

Epidemiology of Fear, Sadness, and Anger Expression in Palliative Care Conversations.

CONTEXT: Advancing the science of serious illness communication requires methods for measuring characteristics of conversations in large studies. Understanding which characteristics predict clinically important outcomes can help prioritize attention to scalable measure development. OBJECTIVES: To understand whether audibly recognizable expressions of distressing emotion during palliative care serious illness conversations are associated with ratings of patient experience or six-month enrollment in hospice. METHODS: We audiorecorded initial palliative care consultations involving 231 hospitalized people with advanced cancer at two large academic medical centers. We coded conversations for expressions of fear, anger, and sadness. We examined the distribution of these expressions and their association with pre/post ratings of feeling heard and understood and six-month hospice enrollment after the consultation. RESULTS: Nearly six in 10 conversations included at least one audible expression of distressing emotion (59%; 137 of 231). Among conversations with such an expression, fear was the most prevalent (72%; 98 of 137) followed by sadness (50%; 69 of 137) and anger (45%; 62 of 137). Anger expression was associated with more disease-focused end-of-life treatment preferences, pre/post consultation improvement in feeling heard and understood and lower six-month hospice enrollment. Fear was strongly associated with preconsultation patient ratings of shorter survival expectations. Sadness did not exhibit strong association with patient descriptors or outcomes. CONCLUSION: Fear, anger, and sadness are commonly expressed in hospital-based palliative care consultations with people who have advanced cancer. Anger is an epidemiologically useful predictor of important clinical outcomes.

Story Arcs in Serious Illness: Natural Language Processing features of Palliative Care Conversations.

OBJECTIVE: Serious illness conversations are complex clinical narratives that remain poorly understood. Natural Language Processing (NLP) offers new approaches for identifying hidden patterns within the lexicon of stories that may reveal insights about the taxonomy of serious illness conversations. METHODS: We analyzed verbatim transcripts from 354 consultations involving 231 patients and 45 palliative care clinicians from the Palliative Care Communication Research Initiative. We stratified each conversation into deciles of "narrative time" based on word counts. We used standard NLP analyses to examine the frequency and distribution of words and phrases indicating temporal reference, illness terminology, sentiment and modal verbs (indicating possibility/desirability). RESULTS: Temporal references shifted steadily from talking about the past to talking about the future over deciles of narrative time. Conversations progressed incrementally from "sadder" to "happier" lexicon; reduction in illness terminology accounted substantially for this pattern. We observed the following sequence in peak frequency over narrative time: symptom terms, treatment terms, prognosis terms and modal verbs indicating possibility. CONCLUSIONS: NLP methods can identify narrative arcs in serious illness conversations. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Fully automating NLP methods will allow for efficient, large scale and real time measurement of serious illness conversations for research, education and system re-design.

Identifying Connectional Silence in Palliative Care Consultations: A Tandem Machine-Learning and Human Coding Method.

Background: Systematic measurement of conversational features in the natural clinical setting is essential to better understand, disseminate, and incentivize high quality serious illness communication. Advances in machine-learning (ML) classification of human speech offer exceptional opportunity to complement human coding (HC) methods for measurement in large scale studies. Objectives: To test the reliability, efficiency, and sensitivity of a tandem ML-HC method for identifying one feature of clinical importance in serious illness conversations: Connectional Silence. Design: This was a cross-sectional analysis of 354 audio-recorded inpatient palliative care consultations from the Palliative Care Communication Research Initiative multisite cohort study. Setting/Subjects: Hospitalized people with advanced cancer. Measurements: We created 1000 brief audio "clips" of randomly selected moments predicted by a screening ML algorithm to be two-second or longer pauses in conversation. Each clip included 10 seconds of speaking before and 5 seconds after each pause. Two HCs independently evaluated each clip for Connectional Silence as operationalized from conceptual taxonomies of silence in serious illness conversations. HCs also evaluated 100 minutes from 10 additional conversations having unique speakers to identify how frequently the ML screening algorithm missed episodes of Connectional Silence. Results:Connectional Silences were rare (5.5%) among all two-second or longer pauses in palliative care conversations. Tandem ML-HC demonstrated strong reliability (kappa 0.62; 95% confidence interval: 0.47-0.76). HC alone required 61% more time than the Tandem ML-HC method. No Connectional Silences were missed by the ML screening algorithm. Conclusions: Tandem ML-HC methods are reliable, efficient, and sensitive for identifying Connectional Silence in serious illness conversations.

Automated Detection of Conversational Pauses from Audio Recordings of Serious Illness Conversations in Natural Hospital Settings.

OBJECTIVE: Automating conversation analysis in the natural clinical setting is essential to scale serious illness communication research to samples that are large enough for traditional epidemiological studies. Our objective is to automate the identification of pauses in conversations because these are important linguistic targets for evaluating dynamics of speaker involvement and turn-taking, listening and human connection, or distraction and disengagement. DESIGN: We used 354 audio recordings of serious illness conversations from the multisite Palliative Care Communication Research Initiative cohort study. SETTING/SUBJECTS: Hospitalized people with advanced cancer seen by the palliative care team. MEASUREMENTS: We developed a Random Forest machine learning (ML) algorithm to detect Conversational Pauses of two seconds or longer. We triple-coded 261 minutes of audio with human coders to establish a gold standard for evaluating ML performance characteristics. RESULTS: ML automatically identified Conversational Pauses with a sensitivity of 90.5 and a specificity of 94.5. CONCLUSIONS: ML is a valid method for automatically identifying Conversational Pauses in the natural acoustic setting of inpatient serious illness conversations.