Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 deaths are commoner among care-home residents, but the mortality burden has not been quantified. METHODS: Care-home residency was identified via a national primary care registration database linked to mortality data. Life expectancy was estimated using Makeham-Gompertz models to (i) describe yearly life expectancy from November 2015 to October 2020 (ii) compare life expectancy (during 2016-18) between care-home residents and the wider population and (iii) apply care-home life expectancy estimates to COVID-19 death counts to estimate years of life lost (YLL). RESULTS: Among care-home residents, life expectancy in 2015/16 to 2019/20 ranged from 2.7 to 2.3 years for women and 2.3 to 1.8 years for men. Age-sex-specific life expectancy in 2016-18 in care-home residents was lower than in the Scottish population (10 and 2.5 years in those aged 70 and 90, respectively). Applying care home-specific life expectancies to COVID-19 deaths yield mean YLLs for care-home residents of 2.6 and 2.2 for women and men, respectively. In total YLL care-home residents have lost 3,560 years in women and 2,046 years in men. Approximately half of deaths and a quarter of YLL attributed to COVID-19 were accounted for by the 5% of over-70s who were care-home residents. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 infection has led to the loss of substantial years of life in care-home residents aged 70 years and over in Scotland. Prioritising the 5% of older adults who are care-home residents for vaccination is justified not only in terms of total deaths, but also in terms of YLL.

Month of Conception and Learning Disabilities: A Record-Linkage Study of 801,592 Children.

Learning disabilities have profound, long-lasting health sequelae. Affected children born over the course of 1 year in the United States of America generated an estimated lifetime cost of $51.2 billion. Results from some studies have suggested that autistic spectrum disorder may vary by season of birth, but there have been few studies in which investigators examined whether this is also true of other causes of learning disabilities. We undertook Scotland-wide record linkage of education (annual pupil census) and maternity (Scottish Morbidity Record 02) databases for 801,592 singleton children attending Scottish schools in 2006-2011. We modeled monthly rates using principal sine and cosine transformations of the month number and demonstrated cyclicity in the percentage of children with special educational needs. Rates were highest among children conceived in the first quarter of the year (January-March) and lowest among those conceived in the third (July-September) (8.9% vs 7.6%; P < 0.001). Seasonal variations were specific to autistic spectrum disorder, intellectual disabilities, and learning difficulties (e.g., dyslexia) and were absent for sensory or motor/physical impairments and mental, physical, or communication problems. Seasonality accounted for 11.4% (95% confidence interval: 9.0, 13.7) of all cases. Some biologically plausible causes of this variation, such as infection and maternal vitamin D levels, are potentially amendable to intervention.

Risk of oesophageal cancer among patients previously hospitalised with eating disorder.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma might be increased in patients with a history of eating disorders due to acidic damage to oesophageal mucosa caused by self-induced vomiting practiced as a method of weight control. Eating disorders have also been associated with risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus, including alcohol use disorders, as well as smoking and nutritional deficiencies, which have been associated with both main sub-types of oesophageal cancer. There have been several case reports of oesophageal cancer (both main sub-types) arising in patients with a history of eating disorders. METHODS: We used linked records of hospitalisation, cancer registration and mortality in Scotland spanning 1981-2012 to investigate the risk of oesophageal cancer among patients with a prior history of hospitalisation with eating disorder. The cohort was restricted to patients aged ≥10 years and <60 years at the date of first admission with eating disorder. Disregarding the first year of follow-up, we calculated indirectly standardised incidence ratios using the general population as the reference group to generate expected numbers of cases (based on age-, sex-, socio-economic deprivation category-, and calendar period-specific rates of disease). RESULTS: After exclusions, the cohort consisted of 3617 individuals contributing 52,455 person-years at risk. The median duration of follow-up was 13.9 years. Seven oesophageal cancers were identified, as compared with 1.14 expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio of 6.1 (95% confidence interval: 2.5-12.6). All were squamous cell carcinomas arising in females with a prior history of anorexia nervosa. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalised previously with eating disorders are at increased risk of developing oesophageal cancer. Confounding by established risk factors (alcohol, smoking, and nutritional deficiency) seems a more likely explanation than acidic damage through self-induced vomiting because none of the incident cases of oesophageal cancer were adenocarcinomas, and because the study cohort had higher than background rates of hospitalisation with alcohol-related conditions and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Educational outcomes following breech delivery: a record-linkage study of 456947 children.

BACKGROUND: Obstetric management of term breech infants changed dramatically following the Term Breech Trial which suggested increased serious neonatal morbidity following trial of labour. Short-term morbidity is a poor proxy of long-term neurological sequelae. We determined whether vaginal breech delivery was associated with educational outcomes. METHODS: We linked three Scotland-wide administrative databases at an individual level: the ScotXed school census; Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) examination results; and Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02) maternity database. The linkage provided information on singleton children, born at term, attending Scottish schools between 2006 and 2011. RESULTS: Of the 456 947 eligible children, 1574 (0.3%) had vaginal breech deliveries, 12 489 (2.7%) planned caesarean section for breech presentation and 442 090 (96.9%) vaginal cephalic deliveries. The percentage of term breech infants delivered vaginally fell from 23% to 7% among children who started school in 2006 and 2011, respectively. Of children born by vaginal breech delivery, 1.5% had a low 5-min Apgar score (≤3) compared with only 0.4% of those born by either breech caesarean section [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 6.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.44-8.54, p<0.001] or cephalic vaginal delivery (adjusted OR 3.84, 95% CI 2.99-4.93, p<0.001). Children born by vaginal breech delivery had lower examination attainment than those born by either planned caesarean section for breech presentation (adjusted OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32, p=0.020) or vaginal cephalic delivery (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28, p=0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Vaginal delivery of term breech infants was associated with lower examination attainment, as well as poorer Apgar scores, suggesting that the adverse effects are not just short-term.

Nationwide linkage analysis in Scotland-Has mortality following hospital admission for Crohn's disease changed in the early 21st century?

BACKGROUND: National Scottish data were used to compare 3-year mortality in patients hospitalized for Crohn's disease (CD) between 1998-2000 and 2007-2009. METHODS: The linked Scottish Morbidity Records database was used to identify patients admitted with CD during two periods: Period 1 (1998-2000) and Period 2 (2007-2009). 3-year mortality and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were determined and multivariable logistic regression analysis of associated factors was performed. Mortality was determined following four admission types: surgery-elective, surgery-emergency, medical-elective and medical-emergency. 3-year mortality was compared between study periods using age-standardized rates. RESULTS: The number of patients per 100,000 population hospitalized with CD per year was unchanged (15.7 [Period 1]; 14.4 [Period 2]). Overall crude and adjusted 3-year mortality rates were also unchanged (crude mortality 9.0%-9.1%, adjusted mortality odds ratio [OR]=0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-1.17; p=0.36). The adjusted 3-year mortality increased following elective surgery (Period 1: 1/303 [0.3%]; Period 2: 9/261 [3.4%]); OR=13.5 [CI 1.66-109.99]) and decreased following emergency medical admission (Period 1: 99/779 [12.7%]; Period 2:86/802 [10.7%]; OR=0.68 [CI 0.47-0.97]). Directly age-standardized mortality rates were similar (Period 1:338/10,000 person years [CI 282-394]; Period 2:333/10,000 person years [CI 276-390], p=0.2). On multivariable regression, age, deprivation status, comorbidity and the length of hospital stay were associated with mortality in both periods. High 3-year mortality was observed during both periods in patients between 50 and 64years (Period 1: 33/298 [11.1%, SMR=4.8 [CI 3.44-6.63], Period 2: 33/296 [11.1%, SMR=5.9 [4.14-8.22]) and over 65years(Period 1: 94/275 [34.2%, SMR=2.78 [CI 2.42-3.62], Period 2: 78/251 [31.1%, SMR=3.31 [2.64-4.11]). CONCLUSION: Nationwide linkage data demonstrate that overall 3-year mortality after hospitalization for CD is high, especially in patients over 50years, and has not altered between the time periods 1998-2000 and 2007-2009.

Adhesions after abdominal surgery in children.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study is to quantify the overall burden (operative and nonoperative) of small bowel obstruction caused by adhesions after laparotomy in children. METHODS: Data from the Scottish National Health Service Medical Record Linkage database were used to assess risk of an adhesion-related readmission in the 5 years after open abdominal surgery in children and adolescents younger than 16 years from April 1996 to March 1997. RESULTS: A total of 1581 children underwent abdominal surgery (ie, from duodenum downward). Patients undergoing surgery on the ileum had the highest risk of readmission because of adhesions in the subsequent 5 years after surgery (9.2%)--formation/closure of ileostomy had the greatest risk (25%); 6.5% of children were readmitted after general laparotomy, 4.7% after duodenal surgery, and 2.1% after colonic surgery. The incidence of readmissions was 0.3% after appendicectomy. The overall readmission rate was 5.3% (if appendicectomy was excluded) and 1.1% (if appendicectomy was included). CONCLUSION: This population-based study has demonstrated that children have a high incidence of readmissions owing to adhesions after lower abdominal surgery. The risks are related to the site and the type of the original surgery. The risk of further readmissions was highest in the first year but continued with time. The data enable surgeons to target antiadhesion strategies at procedures that lead to a high risk of adhesions.

Population-based analysis of the risk of adhesion-related readmissions after abdominal surgery in children.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of adhesion-related readmissions after abdominal surgery in children. METHODS: This was a population-based study. One thousand five hundred eighty-one children younger than 16 years underwent laparotomy in 1996. Patients were identified from the Scottish Morbidity Records database and followed up for 4 years. RESULTS: In children younger than 5 years, 4.2% had a readmission "directly" owing to adhesions. In children younger than 16 years, 1.1% had a readmission directly owing to adhesions. The highest risk of readmission followed surgery on the small intestine (9.3%), followed by abdominal wall surgery (5.8%), duodenal surgery (2.6%), colonic surgery (2.1%), and appendicectomy (0.3%). 55% of all readmissions occurred in the first year. CONCLUSION: There was no difference in readmission rates between younger and older children when comparing the organ on which surgery was initially performed. The highest readmission rate followed small intestinal surgery and the lowest followed appendicectomy. The risk of readmission was highest in the first year.

Thyroid disease and increased cardiovascular risk.

The effects of thyroid dysfunction are thought to be reversible on restoration of euthyroidism, but postmortem and epidemiologic data suggest that subclinical or treated thyroid disease is associated with increased vascular risk. In order to determine the extent of this risk, and to explore whether the nature and/or treatment of thyroid disease are critical in this relationship, we used medical record linkage to match patients with treated thyroid disease of various etiologies with routinely collected national inpatient and daycase hospital discharge records and death records, and assessed the number of hospitalizations from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease or death in patients with thyroid disease and control patients. Patients treated for Graves' disease had more hospitalizations from cardiovascular disease than controls (relative risk, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 1.67; p < 0.001). Toxic multinodular goiter was also associated with significantly higher rates of cardiovascular disease (relative risk, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 2.02; p = 0.008). Patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis aged over 50 years had a threefold increase in cardiovascular admissions compared to controls (23.5% and 6.5%, respectively; 95% confidence interval for difference, 6.0% to 27.9%; p = 0.003). Thus, different forms of thyroid disease were associated with increased long-term vascular risk despite restoration of euthyroidism. The mechanisms that mediate this risk are unclear but may not involve thyroid hormone abnormality.