A Bayesian framework for modeling COVID-19 case numbers through longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater.

Wastewater-based surveillance has become an important tool for research groups and public health agencies investigating and monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health emergencies including other pathogens and drug abuse. While there is an emerging body of evidence exploring the possibility of predicting COVID-19 infections from wastewater signals, there remain significant challenges for statistical modeling. Longitudinal observations of viral copies in municipal wastewater can be influenced by noisy datasets and missing values with irregular and sparse samplings. We propose an integrative Bayesian framework to predict daily positive cases from weekly wastewater observations with missing values via functional data analysis techniques. In a unified procedure, the proposed analysis models severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 RNA wastewater signals as a realization of a smooth process with error and combines the smooth process with COVID-19 cases to evaluate the prediction of positive cases. We demonstrate that the proposed framework can achieve these objectives with high predictive accuracies through simulated and observed real data.

Campus node-based wastewater surveillance enables COVID-19 case localization and confirms lower SARS-CoV-2 burden relative to the surrounding community.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been established as a powerful tool that can guide health policy at multiple levels of government. However, this approach has not been well assessed at more granular scales, including large work sites such as University campuses. Between August 2021 and April 2022, we explored the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater using qPCR assays from multiple complimentary sewer catchments and residential buildings spanning the University of Calgary's campus and how this compared to levels from the municipal wastewater treatment plant servicing the campus. Real-time contact tracing data was used to evaluate an association between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 burden and clinically confirmed cases and to assess the potential of WBS as a tool for disease monitoring across worksites. Concentrations of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 RNA varied significantly across six sampling sites - regardless of several normalization strategies - with certain catchments consistently demonstrating values 1-2 orders higher than the others. Relative to clinical cases identified in specific sewersheds, WBS provided one-week leading indicator. Additionally, our comprehensive monitoring strategy enabled an estimation of the total burden of SARS-CoV-2 for the campus per capita, which was significantly lower than the surrounding community (p≤0.001). Allele-specific qPCR assays confirmed that variants across campus were representative of the community at large, and at no time did emerging variants first debut on campus. This study demonstrates how WBS can be efficiently applied to locate hotspots of disease activity at a very granular scale, and predict disease burden across large, complex worksites.

Wastewater-based surveillance can be used to model COVID-19-associated workforce absenteeism.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) of infectious diseases is a powerful tool for understanding community COVID-19 disease burden and informing public health policy. The potential of WBS for understanding COVID-19's impact in non-healthcare settings has not been explored to the same degree. Here we examined how SARS-CoV-2 measured from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) correlates with workforce absenteeism. SARS-CoV-2 RNA N1 and N2 were quantified three times per week by RT-qPCR in samples collected at three WWTPs servicing Calgary and surrounding areas, Canada (1.4 million residents) between June 2020 and March 2022. Wastewater trends were compared to workforce absenteeism using data from the largest employer in the city (>15,000 staff). Absences were classified as being COVID-19-related, COVID-19-confirmed, and unrelated to COVID-19. Poisson regression was performed to generate a prediction model for COVID-19 absenteeism based on wastewater data. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 95.5 % (85/89) of weeks assessed. During this period 6592 COVID-19-related absences (1896 confirmed) and 4524 unrelated absences COVID-19 cases were recorded. A generalized linear regression using a Poisson distribution was performed to predict COVID-19-confirmed absences out of the total number of absent employees using wastewater data as a leading indicator (P < 0.0001). The Poisson regression with wastewater as a one-week leading signal has an Akaike information criterion (AIC) of 858, compared to a null model (excluding wastewater predictor) with an AIC of 1895. The likelihood-ratio test comparing the model with wastewater signal with the null model shows statistical significance (P < 0.0001). We also assessed the variation of predictions when the regression model was applied to new data, with the predicted values and corresponding confidence intervals closely tracking actual absenteeism data. Wastewater-based surveillance has the potential to be used by employers to anticipate workforce requirements and optimize human resource allocation in response to trackable respiratory illnesses like COVID-19.

Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in wastewater of tertiary care hospitals correlates with increasing case burden and outbreaks.

Wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 surveillance enables unbiased and comprehensive monitoring of defined sewersheds. We performed real-time monitoring of hospital wastewater that differentiated Delta and Omicron variants within total SARS-CoV-2-RNA, enabling correlation to COVID-19 cases from three tertiary-care facilities with >2100 inpatient beds in Calgary, Canada. RNA was extracted from hospital wastewater between August/2021 and January/2022, and SARS-CoV-2 quantified using RT-qPCR. Assays targeting R203M and R203K/G204R established the proportional abundance of Delta and Omicron, respectively. Total and variant-specific SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was compared to data for variant specific COVID-19 hospitalizations, hospital-acquired infections, and outbreaks. Ninety-six percent (188/196) of wastewater samples were SARS-CoV-2 positive. Total SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater increased in tandem with total prevalent cases (Delta plus Omicron). Variant-specific assessments showed this increase to be mainly driven by Omicron. Hospital-acquired cases of COVID-19 were associated with large spikes in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 and levels were significantly increased during outbreaks relative to nonoutbreak periods for total SARS-CoV2, Delta and Omicron. SARS-CoV-2 in hospital wastewater was significantly higher during the Omicron-wave irrespective of outbreaks. Wastewater-based monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants represents a novel tool for passive COVID-19 infection surveillance, case identification, containment, and potentially to mitigate viral spread in hospitals.

Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 RNA wastewater monitoring across a range of scales correlates with total and regional COVID-19 burden in a well-defined urban population.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an emerging surveillance tool that has been used to monitor the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA shed into wastewater. WBE was performed to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 from three wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and six neighborhoods in the city of Calgary, Canada (population 1.44 million). A total of 222 WWTP and 192 neighborhood samples were collected from June 2020 to May 2021, encompassing the end of the first-wave (June 2020), the second-wave (November end to December 2020) and the third-wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (mid-April to May 2021). Flow-weighted 24-hour composite samples were processed to extract RNA that was then analyzed for two SARS-CoV-2-specific regions of the nucleocapsid gene, N1 and N2, using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Using this approach SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 98.06% (406/414) of wastewater samples. SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance was compared to clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases organized by the three-digit postal code of affected individuals' primary residences, enabling correlation analysis at neighborhood, WWTP and city-wide scales. Strong correlations were observed between N1 & N2 gene signals in wastewater and new daily cases for WWTPs and neighborhoods. Similarly, when flow rates at Calgary's three WWTPs were used to normalize observed concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and combine them into a city-wide signal, this was strongly correlated with regionally diagnosed COVID-19 cases and clinical test percent positivity rate. Linked census data demonstrated disproportionate SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from areas of the city with lower socioeconomic status and more racialized communities. WBE across a range of urban scales was demonstrated to be an effective mechanism of COVID-19 surveillance.

The GAA triplet-repeat is unstable in the context of the human FXN locus and displays age-dependent expansions in cerebellum and DRG in a transgenic mouse model.

Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is caused by homozygosity for FXN alleles containing an expanded GAA triplet-repeat (GAA-TR) sequence. Patients have progressive neurodegeneration of the dorsal root ganglia (DRG) and in later stages the cerebellum may be involved. The expanded GAA-TR sequence is unstable in somatic cells in vivo, and although the mechanism of instability remains unknown, we hypothesized that age-dependent and tissue-specific somatic instability may be a determinant of the progressive pathology involving DRG and cerebellum. We show that transgenic mice containing the expanded GAA-TR sequence (190 or 82 triplets) in the context of the human FXN locus show tissue-specific and age-dependent somatic instability that is compatible with this hypothesis. Small pool PCR analysis, which allows quantitative analysis of repeat instability by assaying individual transgenes in vivo, showed age-dependent expansions specifically in the cerebellum and DRG. The (GAA)(190) allele showed some instability by 2 months, progressed at about 0.3-0.4 triplets per week, resulting in a significant number of expansions by 12 months. Repeat length was found to determine the age of onset of somatic instability, and the rate and magnitude of mutation. Given the low level of cerebellar instability seen by others in multiple transgenic mice with expanded CAG/CTG repeats, our data indicate that somatic instability of the GAA-TR sequence is likely mediated by unique tissue-specific factors. This mouse model will serve as a useful tool to delineate the mechanism(s) of disease-specific somatic instability in FRDA.

Replication in mammalian cells recapitulates the locus-specific differences in somatic instability of genomic GAA triplet-repeats.

Friedreich ataxia is caused by an expanded (GAA.TTC)n sequence in intron 1 of the FXN gene. Small pool PCR analysis showed that pure (GAA.TTC)44+ sequences at the FXN locus are unstable in somatic cells in vivo, displaying both expansions and contractions. On searching the entire human and mouse genomes we identified three other genomic loci with pure (GAA.TTC)44+ sequences. Alleles at these loci showed mutation loads of <1% compared with 6.3-30% for FXN alleles of similar length, indicating that somatic instability in vivo is regulated by locus-specific factors. Since distance between the origin of replication and the (CTG.CAG)n sequence modulates repeat instability in mammalian cells, we tested if this could also recapitulate the locus-specific differences for genomic (GAA.TTC)n sequences. Repeat instability was evaluated following replication of a (GAA.TTC)115 sequence in transfected COS1 cells under the control of the SV40 origin of replication located at one of five different distances from the repeat. Indeed, depending on the location of the SV40 origin relative to the (GAA.TTC)n sequence, we noted either no instability, predominant expansion or both expansion and contraction. These data suggest that mammalian DNA replication is a possible mechanism underlying locus-specific differences in instability of GAA triplet-repeat sequences.

Expansion of GAA trinucleotide repeats in mammals.

We have previously shown that GAA trinucleotide repeats have undergone significant expansion in the human genome. Here we present the analysis of the length distribution of all 10 nonredundant trinucleotide repeat motifs in 20 complete eukaryotic genomes (6 mammalian, 2 nonmammalian vertebrates, 4 arthropods, 4 fungi, and 1 each of nematode, amoebozoa, alveolate, and plant), which showed that the abundance of large expansions of GAA trinucleotide repeats is specific to mammals. Analysis of human-chimpanzee-gorilla orthologs revealed that loci with large expansions are species-specific and have occurred after divergence from the common ancestor. PCR analysis of human controls revealed large expansions at multiple human (GAA)(30+) loci; nine loci showed expanded alleles containing >65 triplets, analogous to disease-causing expansions in Friedreich ataxia, including two that are in introns of genes of unknown function. The abundance of long GAA trinucleotide repeat tracts in mammalian genomes represents a significant mutation potential and source of interindividual variability.

Genetic admixture of European FRDA genes is the cause of Friedreich ataxia in the Mexican population.

Friedreich ataxia accounts for approximately 75% of European recessive ataxia patients. Approximately 98% of pathogenic chromosomes have large expansions of a GAA triplet repeat in the FRDA gene (E alleles), and strong linkage disequilibrium among polymorphisms spanning the FRDA locus indicates a common origin for all European E alleles. In contrast, we found that only 14 of 151 (9.3%) Mexican Mestizo patients with recessive ataxia were homozygous for E alleles. Analysis of polymorphisms spanning the FRDA locus revealed that all Mestizo E alleles had the common European haplotype, indicating that they share a single origin. Genetic admixture levels were determined, which revealed that the relative contributions to the Mestizo FRDA gene pool by Native American and European genes were 76-87% and 13-24%, respectively, commensurate with the observed low prevalence of Friedreich ataxia in Mestizos. This indicates that Friedreich ataxia in Mexican Mestizos is due to genetic admixture of European mutant FRDA genes in the Native American gene pool that existed prior to contact with Europeans.

Modified RP4 and Tn5-Mob derivatives for facilitated manipulation of large plasmids in Gram-negative bacteria.

We have constructed a set of RP4 (NmS/TcS) and Tn5-Mob derivatives which have applications in experiments involving mobilization of replicons in many Gram-negative organisms. The different selection markers of the RP4 and Tn5-Mob derivatives include streptomycin, chloramphenicol, gentamicin, and spectinomycin resistance as well as mercury resistance, and a constitutively expressed lacZ gene. This choice of markers allows the use of these derivatives in bacteria which are naturally resistant to many antibiotics, and in strains which contain pre-existing resistance plasmids, transposons, or antibiotic cassette insertions. In addition, a RP4 derivative carrying the sacB gene of Bacillus subtilis was constructed. This allows the selection for the loss of RP4 after it has been used to mobilize other plasmids. A Tn5-Mob-sacB derivative with a new marker (Gm) was also developed, as were vectors which take advantage of the sacB gene to facilitate replacement of existing Tn5 inserts with other Tn5 derivatives. As an example of the use of these tools, three Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. viciae VF39 plasmids which have been shown to be involved in symbiosis were differentially tagged and mobilized (individually and in various combinations) to the plasmid-free Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain UBAPF2. None of the resultant Agrobacterium strains was able to fix nitrogen in symbiosis with peas.

Expansion of GAA triplet repeats in the human genome: unique origin of the FRDA mutation at the center of an Alu.

Friedreich ataxia is caused by expansion of a GAA triplet repeat (GAA-TR) in the FRDA gene. Normal alleles contain <30 triplets, and disease-causing expansions (66-1700 triplets) arise via hyperexpansion of premutations (30-65 triplets). To gain insight into GAA-TR instability we analyzed all triplet repeats in the human genome. We identified 988 (GAA)(8+) repeats, 291 with >or=20 triplets, including 29 potential premutations (30-62 triplets). Most other triplet repeats were restricted to <20 triplets. We estimated the expected frequency of (GAA)(6+) repeats to be negligible, further indicating that GAA-TRs have undergone significant expansion. Eighty-nine percent of (GAA)(8+) sequences map within G/A islands, and 58% map within the poly(A) tails of Alu elements. Only two other (GAA)(8+) sequences shared the central Alu location seen at the FRDA locus. One showed allelic variation, including expansions analogous to short Friedreich ataxia mutations. Our data demonstrate that GAA-TRs have expanded throughout primate evolution with the generation of potential premutation alleles at multiple loci.

The GAA triplet-repeat sequence in Friedreich ataxia shows a high level of somatic instability in vivo, with a significant predilection for large contractions.

Friedreich ataxia is commonly caused by large expansions of a GAA triplet-repeat (GAA-TR) sequence in the first intron of the FRDA gene. We used small-pool PCR to analyze somatic variability among 7190 individual FRDA molecules from peripheral blood DNA of subjects carrying 12 different expanded alleles, ranging in size from 241 to 1105 triplets. Expanded alleles showed a length-dependent increase in somatic variability, with mutation loads ranging from 47% to 78%. We noted a strong contraction bias among long alleles (>500 triplets), which showed a 4-fold higher frequency of large contractions versus expansions. Some contractions were very large; of all somatic mutations scored, approximately 5% involved contractions of >50% of the original allele length, and 0.29% involved complete reversion to the normal/premutation length (< or =60 triplets). These observations contrast sharply with the strong expansion bias seen in expanded CTG triplet repeats in myotonic dystrophy. No somatic variability was detected in >6000 individual FRDA molecules analyzed from 15 normal alleles (8-25 triplets). A premutation allele with 44 uninterrupted GAA repeats was found to be unstable, ranging in size from 6 to 113 triplets, thus establishing the threshold for somatic instability between 26 and 44 GAA triplets. Analysis of an additional 7850 FRDA molecules from serially passaged lymphoblastoid cell lines carrying nine expanded alleles (132-933 triplets) showed very low mutation loads, ranging from 0% to 6.2%. Our data indicate that expanded GAA-TR alleles in Friedreich ataxia are highly mutable and have a natural tendency to contract in vivo, and that these properties depend on multiple factors, including DNA sequence, triplet-repeat length and unknown cell-type-specific factors.