Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Potential for assessing long-term dynamics in soil nitrogen availability from variations in delta15N of tree rings.

Numerous researchers have used the isotopic signatures of C, H, and O in tree rings to provide a long-term record of changes in the physiological status, climate, or water-source use of trees. The frequently limiting element N is also found in tree rings, and variation in its isotopic signature may provide insight into long-term changes in soil N availability of a site. However, research has suggested that N is readily translocated among tree ring of different years; such infidelity between the isotopic compositions of the N taken up from the soil and the N contained in the ring of that growth year would obscure the long-term N isotopic record. We used a 15-year 15N-tracer study to assess the degree of N translocation among tree rings in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees growing in a young, mixed-conifer plantation. We also measured delta13C and delta15N values in unlabeled trees to assess the degree of their covariance in wood tissue, and to explore the potential for a biological linkage between them. We found that the maximum delta15N values in rings from the labeled trees occurred in the ring formed one-year after the 15N was applied to the roots. The delta15N value of rings from labeled trees declined exponentially and bidirectionally from this maximum peak, toward younger and older rings. The unlabeled trees showed considerable interannual variation in the delta15N values of their rings (up to 3 and 5 per thousand), but these values correlated poorly between trees over time and differed by as much as 6 per thousand. Removal of extractives from the wood reduced their delta15N value, but the change was fairly small and consistent among unlabeled trees. The delta13C and delta15N values of tree rings were correlated over time in only one of the unlabeled trees. Across all trees, both delta13C values of tree rings and annual stem wood production were well correlated with annual precipitation, suggesting that soil water balance is an important environmental factor controlling both net C gain and transpirational water loss at this site. Our results suggest that interannual translocation of N among tree rings is substantial, but may be predictable enough to remove this source of variation from the tree-ring record, potentially allowing the assessment of long-term changes in soil N availability of a site.