ABSTRACT
A growing body of research indicates that transparent communication of statistical uncertainty around facts and figures does not undermine credibility. However, the extent to which these findings apply in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic--rife with uncertainties--is unclear. In a large international survey experiment, (Study 1; N = 10,519) we report that communicating uncertainty around COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (vs. no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower trust in the number presented but has no impact on trust in the source of the information. We also report the minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trust is consistent across estimates of current or future COVID-19 statistics (Study 2) and figures relating to environmental or economic research, rather than the pandemic (Study 3). Conversely, we find imprecise statements about the mere existence of uncertainty without quantification can undermine both trust in the numbers and their source - though effects vary across countries and contexts. Communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without concerns about undermining perceptions of their trustworthiness, but ideally should aim to use numerical ranges rather than verbal statements.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate in vitro oocyte maturation rates in embryonic culture medium after induction by hyperosmotic shock caused by exposure to vitrification solutions. METHODS: Bilateral oophorectomy was performed on 20 prepubescent female mice (Swiss). Immature (Prophase I) oocytes (N = 400) were obtained by ovarian dissection, divided into 4 groups, and transferred to culture dishes containing fertilization medium (Sydney IVF Fertilization Medium, Cook® Medical). The control group (CG) did not receive treatment, the test groups (G1, G2, G3) were treated with vitrification solution - 2 (VI-2: 14 M sucrose + ethylene glycol and dimethyl sulfoxide) for 30 seconds and subsequently: G1: 30 seconds in devitrification solution - 2 (DV-2: 0.5M sucrose); G2: 60 seconds DV-2; G3: 60 seconds DV-1(1M sucrose) and 180 seconds DV-2. All groups were cultivated for 24 hours in an incubator at 37ºC and 5% CO2 (Thermo model 3110). After this period, we checked their maturation status. RESULTS: Oocytes exposed to VI-2, DV-1 and DV-2 (G3) showed the highest rate of competence in resuming meiosis and reaching the MII stage; however, there was no statistically significant difference (G3 = 50.5% - 49/97; CG = 27.8% - 10/30). CONCLUSIONS: Oocyte exposure to vitrification solutions, in order to cause osmotic shock, did not interfere with the resumption of meiosis in mice oocytes.
Subject(s)
Cryopreservation , Vitrification , Animals , Dimethyl Sulfoxide , Female , In Vitro Oocyte Maturation Techniques , Mice , OocytesABSTRACT
As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalised estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n=5,520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with the public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. These include: using predominantly percentages when communicating the absolute risk, but also providing, for balance, a format which conveys a contrasting (higher) perception of risk (expected frequency out of 10,000); using a visual linear scale cut at an appropriate point to illustrate the maximum risk, explained through an illustrative persona who might face that highest level of risk; and providing context to the absolute risk through presenting a range of other personas illustrating people who would face risks of a wide range of different levels. These personas should have their major risk factors (age, existing health conditions) described. By contrast, giving people absolute likelihoods of other risks they face in an attempt to add context was considered less helpful.
