Impact of layered non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Yucatan, Mexico.

Background: The pandemic propagation of SARS-CoV-2 led to the adoption of a myriad of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs, e.g., social distancing, mobility restrictions, gathering restrictions) in the Americas. Using national epidemiological data, here we report the impact of the layered adoption of multiple NPIs aimed at curving SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Yucatan State, Mexico. Methods: Data from suspected and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases during 2020 were analyzed by age groups and sex, clinical signs, and symptoms as well as outcome. The impact of NPIs was quantified using time-varying reproduction numbers (R t) estimated as a time-series and by sectors of the city. Findings: A total of 69,602 suspected cases were reported, 39.3% were laboratory-confirmed. Men were hospitalized (60.2%), more severely ill (3% vs 1.9%) and more likely to die (62%) than women. Early in the outbreak, all sectors in Merida had R t estimates above unity. Once all NPÍs were in place, R t values were dramatically reduced below one, and in the last interval transmission estimates of R t remained below one in all sectors. Interpretation: In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccination program, the combination and wide adherence of NPÍs led to a low and stable trend in SARS-CoV-2 transmission that did not overwhelm the health sector. Our study reflects that a controlled and planned ease of restrictions to balance health, social and economic recovery resulted in a single wave of transmission that prolonged at low and stable levels. Funding: GVP received funding from Emory University via the MP3 Initiative.

Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis 'hotspots' and sociodemographic associations in Durban, South Africa.

In KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, the incidence of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) is driven by the transmission of resistant strains. As data suggest that cases may be spatially clustered, we sought to identify 'hotspots' and describe these communities. We enrolled XDR-TB patients diagnosed from 2011 to 2014 in eThekwini. Global positioning system (GPS) coordinates for participant homes were collected and hotspots were identified based on population-adjusted XDR-TB incidence. The sociodemographic features of hotspots were characterised using census data. For a subset of participants, we mapped non-home XDR-TB congregate locations and compared these with results including only homes. Among 132 participants, 75 (57%) were female and 87 (66%) lived in urban or suburban locations. Fifteen of 197 census tracts were identified as XDR-TB hotspots with ≥95% confidence. Four spatial mapping methods identified one large hotspot in northeastern eThekwini. Hotspot communities had higher proportions of low educational attainment (12% vs. 9%) and unemployment (29.3% vs. 20.4%), and lower proportion of homes with flush toilets (36.4% vs. 68.9%). The case density shifted towards downtown Durban when congregate locations (e.g., workplaces) for 43 (33%) participants were mapped. In eThekwini, XDR-TB case homes were clustered into hotspots with more poverty indicators than non-hotspots. Prevention efforts targeting hotspot communities and congregate settings may be effective in reducing community transmission. .

Hydrological modelling of snail dispersal patterns in Msambweni, Kenya and potential resurgence of Schistosoma haematobium transmission.

Urinary schistosomiasis is an important source of human morbidity in Msambweni, Kenya, where the intermediate host snail, Bulinus nasutus is found in ponds and water pools. In the past, aquatic habitats in the area have been studied separately; however, recent collections of B. nasutus snails and shells indicated that many of these ponds are in fact connected during and following sufficient rains. Satellite imagery and a geographical information system (GIS) were used to survey the main water courses and potential drainage routes, to locate potential source populations of snails and to determine probable snail dispersal routes. The 2 water bodies implicated as being the most important Schistosoma haematobium transmission foci in the area were found to differ in their degree of connectivity to other B. nasutus source habitats. One pond becomes connected even after normal rains, while the other pond requires prolonged rains or flooding to become connected with source habitats. Consequently, the transmission foci differ in their susceptibility to snail population control measures. Spatially explicit dispersal models that consider the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity between aquatic habitats will contribute to improved snail surveillance and more focused control for urinary schistosomiasis at a local level.