ABSTRACT
"Since the 1950 U.S. census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census."
Subject(s)
Censuses , Demography , Methods , Statistics as Topic , Americas , Developed Countries , North America , Population Characteristics , Research , Research Design , United StatesABSTRACT
The effect of changing age-sex composition on trends in unemployment and underemployment from 1969 to 1980 is estimated. This effect is positive as anticipated, but negligible in both absolute and relative terms. For example, no more than .35 percent of the increase in unemployment between 1969 and 1980 can be attributed to compositional factors. The secular rise in unemployment and underemployment from the late 1960s into the 1980s simply cannot be attributed in any substantial way to the changing demographic composition of the labor force.
Subject(s)
Employment/trends , Population Dynamics , Unemployment , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Socioeconomic Factors , United StatesABSTRACT
This paper deals with the mismatch between occupation and schooling attainment, the imbalance between occupation-specific demand for labor and schooling-level-specific labor supply. A framework for measuring the prevalence of mismatch is given, and a simple index derived from it gives plausible results and robust inferences about differentials and time trend. This approach can be applied to existing data, yields comprehensive and current social indicators, and can be used with a minimum number of assumptions. Trends for the U.S. labor force over the 1969-1980 interval are examined. Results show that there has been a dramatic and general increase in mismatch prevalence. Various demographic explanations of mismatch trends are examined.
Subject(s)
Education , Occupations , Adult , Black or African American , Age Factors , Demography , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Sex Factors , United States , White PeopleABSTRACT
The age-period-cohort accounting framework is used to describe labor force participation patterns for the sex-color groups over the interval 1969-1979, using data from the March Current Population Survey. A model with a special type of age-period interaction, in addition to main effects of the three indexing variables, is presented as a means of capturing the transitory period "shocks" which differentially influence participation odds for young and old age groups. Findings show that younger cohorts of nonblack men, nonblack women, and black women have greater "intrinsic" tendencies to participate than older cohorts, while younger cohorts of black men have lesser "intrinsic" tendencies to participate than older cohorts. The results are used to decompose across-time change into a part due to cohort effects and a part due to period effects.
Subject(s)
Demography , Employment/trends , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Ethnicity , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Sex Factors , United StatesABSTRACT
This article is an attempt to assess the effect of personal health care on longevity. It is assumed throughout that personal health care has a differential impact on the various causes of death. Historical and cross-sectional comparisons of the relative incidence of certain causes of death can, under this assumption, provide some insight into the effectiveness of personal health care generally and may provide a gauge of the relative benefits of different personal health care delivery systems. Using the U.S. male population of 1964 as a reference point, it is estimated that the withdrawal of personal health services would result at the most in a decrease in average length of life from 66.9 to 60.5 years.
Subject(s)
Longevity , Personal Health Services , Delivery of Health Care/economics , Disease/classification , England , Humans , Male , Mortality , Sweden , United States , WalesABSTRACT
By the conception of an underlying multiplicative model for cross-classified data, a statistical method for the adjustment of rates is suggested. This method rests upon the multiplicative definition of interaction in cross-classifications and can lead to results different from those obtained from the more usual methods (e.g., Kitagawa, 1964). Comparisons with alternative approaches are made, and illustrative applications to data are provided.
