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1.
Front Oncol ; 14: 1336031, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38884093

ABSTRACT

Neuroblastoma accounts for approximately 15% of pediatric cancer-related deaths despite intensive multimodal therapy. This is due, in part, to high rates of metastatic disease at diagnosis and disease relapse. A better understanding of tumor biology of aggressive, pro-metastatic phenotypes is necessary to develop novel, more effective therapeutics against neuroblastoma. Phosphatidylinositol 3,4,5-trisphosphate-dependent Rac exchanger 1 (P-Rex1) has been found to stimulate migration, invasion, and metastasis in several adult malignancies. However, its role in neuroblastoma is currently unknown. In the present study, we found that P-Rex1 is upregulated in pro-metastatic murine models of neuroblastoma, as well as human neuroblastoma metastases. Correspondingly, silencing of P-Rex1 was associated with decreased migration and invasion in vitro. This was associated with decreased AKT-mTOR and ERK2 activity, dysregulation of Rac, and diminished secretion of matrix metalloproteinases. Furthermore, increased P-Rex1 expression was associated with inferior relapse-free and overall survival via tissue microarray and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of a publicly available clinical database. Together, these findings suggest that P-Rex1 may be a novel therapeutic target and potential prognostic factor in neuroblastoma.

2.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 5480, 2024 Mar 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38443467

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people's protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world CCTV footage and video postings from social media platforms, and then identified and annotated changes in the environment and people's behavioral responses during the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake. By using the fully annotated video data, we applied XGBoost, a widely-used machine learning method, to model and forecast people's protective actions (e.g., drop and cover, hold on, and evacuate) during the earthquake. Then, explainable machine learning techniques were used to reveal the complex, nonlinear relationships between different factors and people's choices of protective actions. Modeling results confirm that social and environmental cues played critical roles in affecting the probability of different protective actions. Certain factors, such as the earthquake shaking intensity and number of people shown in the environment, displayed evident nonlinear relationships with the probability of choosing to evacuate. These findings can help emergency managers and policymakers design more effective protective action recommendations during earthquakes.

3.
J Am Coll Surg ; 238(4): 463-478, 2024 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38258890

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on healthcare outcomes. Metrics such as area deprivation index (ADI) are used to quantify the anticipated influence of these factors. Here, we sought to assess the impact of socioeconomic factors on clinical outcomes among pediatric patients with solid tumor in our region. STUDY DESIGN: We identified 3,863 pediatric patients who were diagnosed with a malignant solid tumor in the Texas Cancer Registry between 1995 and 2019. ADI was used to quantify socioeconomic determinants of health. These outcome variables were determined: stage of disease at diagnosis, time between diagnosis and treatment initiation, and overall mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression, linear regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. RESULTS: A total of 53.5% of patients were male and the average age at diagnosis was 4.5 years. Forty-seven percent of patients were White, 13.3% were Black, 36.2% were Hispanic, 1.7% were Asian, and other rare minority groups made up 1.8%. On multivariable analysis, increased risk of death was associated with Black race, rare minority race, residence in a border county, and increasing ADI score, with the risk of death at 5 years rising 4% with each increasing ADI point. CONCLUSIONS: Social determinants of health are associated with disparate outcomes among pediatric patients with solid tumor. Our results suggest that patients who are part of racial minority groups and those who reside in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods or regions near the Texas-Mexico border are at an increased risk of death. This information may be useful in strategizing outreach and expanding resources to improve outcomes in at-risk communities.


Subject(s)
Neoplasms , Social Determinants of Health , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Male , Neoplasms/therapy , Registries , Retrospective Studies , Socioeconomic Factors , Treatment Outcome , Health Status Disparities , Texas
4.
Front Oncol ; 12: 1066191, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36561526

ABSTRACT

Background: Pulsed low-dose-rate radiotherapy (pLDR) is a commonly used reirradiation technique for recurrent glioma, but its upfront use with temozolomide (TMZ) following primary resection of glioblastoma is currently under investigation. Because standard magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has limitations in differentiating treatment effect from tumor progression in such applications, perfusion-weighted MRI (PWI) can be used to create fractional tumor burden (FTB) maps to spatially distinguish active tumor from treatment-related effect. Methods: We performed PWI prior to re-resection in four patients with glioblastoma who had undergone upfront pLDR concurrent with TMZ who had radiographic suspicion for tumor progression at a median of 3 months (0-5 months or 0-143 days) post-pLDR. The pathologic diagnosis was compared to retrospectively-generated FTB maps. Results: The median patient age was 55.5 years (50-60 years). All were male with IDH-wild type (n=4) and O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) hypermethylated (n=1) molecular markers. Pathologic diagnosis revealed treatment effect (n=2), a mixture of viable tumor and treatment effect (n=1), or viable tumor (n=1). In 3 of 4 cases, FTB maps were indicative of lesion volumes being comprised predominantly of treatment effect with enhancing tumor volumes comprised of a median of 6.8% vascular tumor (6.4-16.4%). Conclusion: This case series provides insight into the radiographic response to upfront pLDR and TMZ and the role for FTB mapping to distinguish tumor progression from treatment effect prior to redo-surgery and within 20 weeks post-radiation.

5.
Sci Adv ; 8(8): eabk1167, 2022 Feb 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35196076

ABSTRACT

The San Andreas Fault (SAF) showcases the breadth of possible earthquake sizes and occurrence behavior; in particular, the central SAF is a microcosm of such diversity. This section also exhibits the spectrum of fault coupling from locked to creeping. Here, we show that the observations of aseismic slip, temporal clustering of seismicity, and spatial variations in earthquake size distributions are tightly connected. Specifically, the creep rate along the central SAF is shown to be directly proportional to the fraction of nonclustered earthquakes for the period 1984-2020. This relationship provides a unified perspective of earthquake phenomenology along the SAF, where lower coupling manifests in weaker temporal clustering, with repeating earthquakes as an end-member. This new paradigm provides additional justification for characterizing the northwest ∼75 kilometers of the creeping segment as a transition zone, with potential implications for seismic hazard.

7.
J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med ; 35(6): 1070-1074, 2022 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32188329

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Infants prenatally suspected of having a choledochal cyst (CDC) typically undergo ultrasound imaging shortly after birth. This study sought to evaluate features on the initial postnatal ultrasound (IPU) that could identify newborns at risk for early complications. METHODS: Following IRB approval, patients from four US fetal centers with prenatal suspicion for CDC and postnatal imaging from 2000 to 2017 were reviewed. Imaging and clinical courses were assessed. RESULTS: Forty-two patients had prenatal ultrasounds suspicious for CDC. Nineteen (45.2%) were excluded due to diagnostic revision (n = 9), cyst resolution (n = 5), lack of IPU measurements (n = 3), or lack of follow-up (n = 2). The 23 remaining patients were included in the study. Of these, five (21.7%) developed symptoms at a median age of 16.5 days (IQR 16-19 days), and 18 (78.3%) remained asymptomatic throughout the first year after birth. Five patients (21.7%) had cysts ≥ 4.5 cm on IPU (Symptomatic: n = 3; Asymptomatic: n = 2). Eighteen patients (78.3%) had cysts < 4.5 cm on IPU (Symptomatic: n = 2; Asymptomatic: n = 16). An IPU cyst size ≥ 4.5 cm was associated with neonatal symptom manifestation (p = 0.048), with 88.9% specificity (95% CI 65.3-98.6%) and 60% sensitivity (95% CI 14.7-94.7%). CONCLUSIONS: In newborns with prenatally diagnosed CDC, a cyst size ≥ 4.5 cm on IPU is associated with symptom development during the first month after birth and therefore early cyst excision is recommended.


Subject(s)
Choledochal Cyst , Choledochal Cyst/diagnostic imaging , Choledochal Cyst/surgery , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Parturition , Pregnancy , Prenatal Diagnosis , Retrospective Studies
8.
Cardiol Young ; 32(8): 1276-1284, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34602116

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Low socio-economic status is associated with poorer quality of life among children with congenital heart disease (CHD), but this finding is based on disparities among children remaining under cardiology follow-up. We used a population-based health survey data set to analyse the impact of socio-economic status on health and functional status among children with CHD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used 2007-2018 National Health Interview Survey data, selecting children 2-17 years of age who had been diagnosed with CHD. Outcomes included caregiver-rated general health, presence of functional limitations, number of missed school days, need for special education, and need for special equipment related to the child's health conditions. Socio-economic status measures included maternal educational attainment, food stamp programme participation, poverty status, and insurance coverage. RESULTS: Based on a sample of 233 children with CHD, 10% had fair or poor health, 38% reported having any health-related limitation on their usual activities, 11% needed special equipment, and 27% received special education services. On multivariable analysis, lower maternal educational attainment was correlated with worse caregiver-rated health, and children without insurance were especially likely to experience functional limitations. Black children with CHD had significantly worse caregiver-rated health compared to White children (ordered logit odds ratio: 0.19; 95% confidence interval: 0.08, 0.45; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based survey of children with CHD, race and several measures of socio-economic status disadvantage were associated with worse health outcomes. Further evaluation of social determinants of health during cardiology follow-up may help improve outcomes for children with CHD in socio-economically disadvantaged families.


Subject(s)
Family Characteristics , Heart Defects, Congenital , Needs Assessment , Social Determinants of Health , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Health Surveys , Heart Defects, Congenital/therapy , Humans , Needs Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Poverty , Social Determinants of Health/statistics & numerical data
9.
Neurosurg Open ; 2(4): okab029, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34661110

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Distinction of brain tumor progression from treatment effect on postcontrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an ongoing challenge in the management of brain tumor patients. A newly emerging MRI biomarker called fractional tumor burden (FTB) has demonstrated the ability to spatially distinguish high-grade brain tumor from treatment effect with important implications for surgical management and pathological diagnosis. CLINICAL PRESENTATION: A 58-yr-old male with glioblastoma was treated with standard concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) after initial resection. Throughout follow-up imaging, the distinction of tumor progression from treatment effect was of concern. The surgical report from a redo resection indicated recurrent glioblastoma, while the tissue sent for pathological diagnosis revealed no tumor. Presurgical FTB maps confirmed the spatial variation of tumor and treatment effect within the contrast-agent enhancing lesion. Unresected lesion, shown to be an active tumor on FTB, was the site of substantial tumor growth postresection. CONCLUSION: This case report introduces the idea that a newly developed MRI biomarker, FTB, can provide information of tremendous benefit for surgical management, pathological diagnosis as well as subsequent treatment management decisions in high-grade glioma.

10.
Dalton Trans ; 50(9): 3247-3252, 2021 Mar 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33586724

ABSTRACT

The use of a novel inorganic nanoscale cluster (Al[(µ-OH)2Co(NH3)4]3(NO3)6) was investigated for its utility as a precursor for AlCoOx films. Mixed-metal aluminum and cobalt oxide thin films were solution deposited from the novel cluster solution via the spin-coating method on Si (100) and quartz substrates. The films were annealed at increasing temperatures up to 800 °C, and characterization of these films via TEM and XRD confirms binary Co3O4 crystalline phase present in an amorphous Al2O3 network. Films are relatively smooth (Rrms < 4 nm), polycrystalline, and demonstrate a tunable optical response dominated by Co3O4 with two electronic transitions.

11.
World Neurosurg ; 145: 220-228, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32920159

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Intracranial capillary hemangiomas (ICHs) are rare vascular tumors composed of a bed of many narrow thin-walled vessels. Within the confines of the skull, these tumors can lead to serious neurologic deficits including cranial nerve dysfunction, mood/personality disturbances, and signs of intracranial mass effect. METHODS: We report the case of a 23-year-old, 5-week postpartum woman with a history of progressive painful ophthalmalgia of the right eye presenting with rapid onset of ptosis, diplopia, and right-sided facial pain and hypesthesia. Imaging demonstrated a small extraaxial mass within the right cavernous sinus. She underwent 2 operations via an endoscopic endonasal approach for biopsy followed by complete resection. Histology showed a highly mitotic capillary hemangioma, which was negative for both estrogen and progesterone receptors. RESULTS: We review cases of ICH reported in the literature and provide an updated summary of the presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of ICH. We then present a brief analysis of the reported cases with respect to age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, in experienced hands, the endoscopic endonasal approach can be used to access the cavernous sinus for complete resection of ICHs of the cavernous sinus. We also suggest that further attention be paid to such cases in pregnant and peripartum women as these tumors may progress more quickly in this subpopulation.


Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms/surgery , Hemangioma, Capillary/surgery , Hemangioma, Cavernous, Central Nervous System/surgery , Neurosurgical Procedures/methods , Pregnancy Complications, Neoplastic/surgery , Biopsy , Endoscopy , Female , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Nasal Cavity/surgery , Pain/etiology , Postpartum Period , Pregnancy , Treatment Outcome , Young Adult
12.
Am J Forensic Med Pathol ; 42(2): 182-185, 2021 Jun 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33074840

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: Resorbable topical hemostatic agents are widely used in surgical procedures to control intraoperative bleeding. There have been multiple reports of complications from use of these agents, including pulmonary vasculature thromboembolism, cerebral venous sinus occlusion, and postoperative inflammatory mass lesions each containing the hemostatic agent. We report 2 cases of inadvertent intra-arterial embolization of hemostatic agent. Both cases followed elective surgical cervical spinal procedures, during which gelatin-based local hemostatic agents were used to control unanticipated bleeding. Postoperatively, both patients exhibited neurologic defects and were found to have infarcts of the brain. At autopsy, vertebrobasilar thromboemboli containing foreign material grossly and microscopically consistent with hemostatic matrix material were found in both cases. These are the first reports of hemostatic agent embolization resulting in cerebral infarcts and leading to death.


Subject(s)
Cerebral Infarction/pathology , Hemostatics/adverse effects , Intracranial Embolism/pathology , Administration, Topical , Adult , Cerebral Infarction/diagnostic imaging , Computed Tomography Angiography , Fatal Outcome , Female , Gelatin Sponge, Absorbable/administration & dosage , Gelatin Sponge, Absorbable/adverse effects , Hemostatics/administration & dosage , Humans , Intracranial Embolism/etiology , Male , Middle Aged , Vertebrobasilar Insufficiency/etiology , Vertebrobasilar Insufficiency/pathology
13.
Tomography ; 6(2): 160-169, 2020 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32548292

ABSTRACT

Magnetic resonance (MR)-derived radiomic features have shown substantial predictive utility in modeling different prognostic factors of glioblastoma and other brain cancers. However, the biological relationship underpinning these predictive models has been largely unstudied, and the generalizability of these models had been called into question. Here, we examine the localized relationship between MR-derived radiomic features and histology-derived "histomic" features using a data set of 16 patients with brain cancer. Tile-based radiomic features were collected on T1, post-contrast T1, FLAIR, and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-derived apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images acquired before patient death, with analogous histomic features collected for autopsy samples coregistered to the magnetic resonance imaging. Features were collected for each original image, as well as a 3D wavelet decomposition of each image, resulting in 837 features per MR and histology image. Correlative analyses were used to assess the degree of association between radiomic-histomic pairs for each magnetic resonance imaging. The influence of several confounds was also assessed using linear mixed-effect models for the normalized radiomic-histomic distance, testing for main effects of different acquisition field strengths. Results as a whole were largely heterogeneous, but several features showed substantial associations with their histomic analogs, particularly those derived from the FLAIR and postcontrast T1W images. These features with the strongest association typically presented as stable across field strengths as well. These data suggest that a subset of radiomic features can consistently capture texture information on underlying tissue histology.


Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms , Glioblastoma , Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Brain Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Diffusion Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Female , Glioblastoma/diagnostic imaging , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Male , Middle Aged
14.
Science ; 368(6497): 1357-1361, 2020 06 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32554593

ABSTRACT

The vibrant evolutionary patterns made by earthquake swarms are incompatible with standard, effectively two-dimensional (2D) models for general fault architecture. We leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with a deep-learning algorithm to image a fault zone hosting a 4-year-long swarm in southern California. We infer that fluids are naturally injected into the fault zone from below and diffuse through strike-parallel channels while triggering earthquakes. A permeability barrier initially limits up-dip swarm migration but ultimately is circumvented. This enables fluid migration within a shallower section of the fault with fundamentally different mechanical properties. Our observations provide high-resolution constraints on the processes by which swarms initiate, grow, and arrest. These findings illustrate how swarm evolution is strongly controlled by 3D variations in fault architecture.

15.
Ann Diagn Pathol ; 46: 151521, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32305003

ABSTRACT

The tumors involving the parotid gland are mainly primary, with metastatic lesions comprising only 5% of malignant salivary gland neoplasms. We are presenting a rare case of metastatic meningioma to the parotid in a 51-year-old male with a past medical history of recurrent atypical meningioma involving the frontal lobe. For the past 1.5 years, routine imaging showed parotid lesions with interval growth including a 2.0 cm dominant tender preauricular parotid mass. The chronicity and the number of lesions made malignancy unlikely. The differential diagnosis included non-specific lesions such as intraparotid lymph nodes and benign neoplasms. Fine needle aspiration of the parotid mass was performed to show loosely cohesive fragments and singly scattered neoplastic cells with mild nuclear pleomorphism and oncocytic cytoplasm. The main cytomorphologic differential diagnosis included oncocytic and myoepithelial-rich tumors. The neoplastic cells were immunoreactive to p63, calponin and SSTR2A and were negative for cytokeratins, progesterone receptor, S100, DOG-1, EMA, synaptophysin, and chromogranin. The cytology slides and the parotid gland mass resection were compared to the previous meningioma resection specimen which showed a similar morphology of the oncocytic tumor cells in some areas. The overall morphologic and immunohistochemical findings of the parotid tumor were consistent with metastatic meningioma. Extracranial metastases from intracranial tumors are extremely rare. Meningiomas arise from the dura matter, constitute 15% of primary brain tumors, and metastasize at an estimated rate of 0.1%. Despite how uncommon metastatic meningioma is, our case emphasizes the critical role of clinical history when evaluating parotid gland lesions.


Subject(s)
Meningeal Neoplasms/pathology , Meningioma/secondary , Parotid Neoplasms/secondary , Humans , Male , Middle Aged
16.
World Neurosurg ; 133: 308-313, 2020 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31525486

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Intravascular papillary endothelial hyperplasia (IPEH) is a benign vascular lesion that is uncommon in the central nervous system. To our knowledge, there has been only one previous report of occurrence in the pineal region. We present a second case and a review of the literature. CASE DESCRIPTION: A 28-year-old woman presented with 1 month of headaches and visual auras. Brain magnetic resonance imaging scan demonstrated a 2.6- × 1.8- × 1.3-cm nonenhancing T1-hypointense, T2-/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery-hyperintense pineal region mass with cerebral aqueduct obstruction and hydrocephalus. She underwent placement of a right extraventricular drain followed by complete surgical resection. Histologic analysis was consistent with IPEH. CONCLUSIONS: Although rare, IPEH is an entity that should be considered in the differential diagnosis for intracranial masses with radiographic features characteristic of vascular lesions. Tissue sampling is imperative for distinction from more malignant entities. Complete resection is curative and is the standard of care when feasible. Given the risk of local progression and neurologic compromise with subtotal resection of central nervous system lesions, further study regarding adjuvant treatment options is warranted.


Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms/surgery , Pineal Gland/surgery , Vascular Neoplasms/surgery , Adult , Brain Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Drainage , Female , Humans , Hyperplasia/diagnostic imaging , Hyperplasia/surgery , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Neurosurgical Procedures , Pineal Gland/diagnostic imaging , Treatment Outcome , Vascular Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging
18.
Nature ; 576(7785): 112-120, 2019 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31748746

ABSTRACT

The evolutionary processes that drive universal therapeutic resistance in adult patients with diffuse glioma remain unclear1,2. Here we analysed temporally separated DNA-sequencing data and matched clinical annotation from 222 adult patients with glioma. By analysing mutations and copy numbers across the three major subtypes of diffuse glioma, we found that driver genes detected at the initial stage of disease were retained at recurrence, whereas there was little evidence of recurrence-specific gene alterations. Treatment with alkylating agents resulted in a hypermutator phenotype at different rates across the glioma subtypes, and hypermutation was not associated with differences in overall survival. Acquired aneuploidy was frequently detected in recurrent gliomas and was characterized by IDH mutation but without co-deletion of chromosome arms 1p/19q, and further converged with acquired alterations in the cell cycle and poor outcomes. The clonal architecture of each tumour remained similar over time, but the presence of subclonal selection was associated with decreased survival. Finally, there were no differences in the levels of immunoediting between initial and recurrent gliomas. Collectively, our results suggest that the strongest selective pressures occur during early glioma development and that current therapies shape this evolution in a largely stochastic manner.


Subject(s)
Glioma/genetics , Adult , Chromosomes, Human, Pair 1 , Chromosomes, Human, Pair 19 , Disease Progression , Glioma/pathology , Humans , Isocitrate Dehydrogenase/genetics , Mutation , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide , Recurrence
19.
World Neurosurg ; 129: 225-231, 2019 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31176839

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We document a case of central nervous system infection with Trypanosoma cruzi. CASE DESCRIPTION: An 88-year-old woman presented with altered mental status, right-sided weakness, and slurred speech. Her medical history was significant for methotrexate intake for rheumatoid arthritis, and she tested negative for human immunodeficiency virus. Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain showed bilateral thick and peripherally enhancing white matter lesions in the frontoparietal region with extensive surrounding vasogenic edema. A lumbar puncture revealed increased protein and lymphocytic pleocytosis, and needle biopsy highlighted brain necrosis, chronic inflammation, and numerous intracellular organisms suggestive of T. cruzi amastigotes. Despite treatment with benznidazole, the patient expired soon after presentation. CONCLUSION: Chagas disease should be included in the differential diagnosis of an immunocompromised patient presenting with a central nervous system mass, meningoencephalitis, or focal neurologic signs.


Subject(s)
Chagas Disease/immunology , Immunocompromised Host , Meningoencephalitis/immunology , Aged, 80 and over , Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy , Female , Humans , Immunosuppressive Agents/adverse effects , Methotrexate/adverse effects
20.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 2478, 2019 Feb 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30792471

ABSTRACT

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance.

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