Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian vegetables industry.

Recently, partly due to the increasing carbon consciousness in the electorates and partly due to the imminent introduction of the Australian Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), estimating carbon footprints is becoming increasingly necessary in agriculture. By taking data from several sources, this study estimates the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a variety of farm inputs, for the 23 key vegetables crops grown in Australia. For the 121,122 ha of land occupied by vegetable farms, there are 1.1 MtCO(2)e GHG emissions or 9.2 tCO(2)e ha(-1). In total, 65% of total GHG emissions from the vegetable industry are due to electricity use for irrigation and post-harvest on-farm activities, 17% from soil N(2)O emissions due to N fertiliser use, 10% from agrochemicals, 7% through fossils fuels and 1% from on-farm machinery. The top four vegetables (by area), potatoes, lettuce, tomatoes and broccoli account for 29.1%, 7.9%, 5.9% and 7.2% of total GHG emissions from vegetables, respectively. However, the ratio of GHG emissions between the highest and lowest-emitting crops per hectare and per tonne, are different. Therefore, care must be exercised in carbon footprint labelling vegetable products to ensure that the labels reflect carbon emissions on a per tonnage basis.

Managing trade-offs in landscape restoration and revegetation projects.

Landscape restoration projects often have multiple and disparate conservation, resource enhancement, and sometimes economic objectives, since projects that seek to meet more than one objective tend to be viewed more positively by funding agencies and the community. The degree to which there are trade-offs among desired objectives is an important variable for decision makers, yet this is rarely explicitly considered. In particular, the existence of ecological thresholds has important implications for decision-making at both the project level and the regional level. We develop a model of the possibilities and choices for an agency seeking to achieve two environmental objectives in a region through revegetation of a number of sites. A graphical model of the production possibilities sets for a single revegetation project is developed, and different trade-off relationships are discussed and illustrated. Then the model is used to demonstrate the possibilities for managing all such projects within a region. We show that, where there are thresholds in the trade-off relationship between two objectives, specialization (single- or dominant-objective projects) should be considered. This is illustrated using a case study in which revegetation is used to meet avian biodiversity and salinity mitigation objectives. We conclude that where there are sufficient scientific data, explicit consideration of different types of trade-offs can assist in making decisions about the most efficient mix and type of projects to better achieve a range of objectives within a region.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from inputs into farm enterprises in southeast Queensland, Australia.

One of the assumptions underlying efforts to convert cropping land, especially marginal crop land, to plantations is that there will be a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with a gas "sink" replacing a high energy system in which the breakdown of biomass is routinely accelerated to prepare for new crops. This research, based on case studies in Kingaroy in southeast Queensland, compares the amount of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions from a peanut/maize crop rotation, a pasture system for beef production and a spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora) timber plantation. Three production inputs, fuel, farm machinery and agrochemicals (fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides) are considered. The study extends beyond the farm gate to include packing and transportation and the time period is 30 years. The results suggest that replacing the crops with plantations would indeed reduce emissions but that a pasture system would have even lower net emissions. These findings cast some doubt on the case for farm forestry as a relatively effective means of ameliorating greenhouse gas emissions.