The OncoSim model: development and use for better decision-making in Canadian cancer control.

The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer was created in 2007 by the federal government to accelerate cancer control across Canada. Its OncoSim microsimulation model platform, which consists of a suite of specific cancer models, was conceived as a tool to augment conventional resources for population-level policy- and decision-making. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer manages the OncoSim program, with funding from Health Canada and model development by Statistics Canada. Microsimulation modelling allows for the detailed capture of population heterogeneity and health and demographic history over time. Extensive data from multiple Canadian sources were used as inputs or to validate the model. OncoSim has been validated through expert consultation; assessments of face validity, internal validity, and external validity; and model fit against observed data. The platform comprises three in-depth cancer models (lung, colorectal, cervical), with another in-depth model (breast) and a generalized model (25 cancers) being in development. Unique among models of its class, OncoSim is available online for public sector use free of charge. Users can customize input values and output display, and extensive user support is provided. OncoSim has been used to support decision-making at the national and jurisdictional levels. Although simulation studies are generally not included in hierarchies of evidence, they are integral to informing cancer control policy when clinical studies are not feasible. OncoSim can evaluate complex intervention scenarios for multiple cancers. Canadian decision-makers thus have a powerful tool to assess the costs, benefits, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary effects of cancer control interventions when faced with difficult choices for improvements in population health and resource allocation.

Cost and resource utilization in cervical cancer management: a real-world retrospective cost analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We set out to assess the health care resource utilization and cost of cervical cancer from the perspective of a single-payer health care system. METHODS: Retrospective observational data for women diagnosed with cervical cancer in British Columbia between 2004 and 2009 were analyzed to calculate patient-level resource utilization patterns from diagnosis to death or 5-year discharge. Domains of resource use within the scope of this cost analysis were chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and brachytherapy administered by the BC Cancer Agency; resource utilization related to hospitalization and outpatient visits as recorded by the B.C. Ministry of Health; medically required services billed under the B.C. Medical Services Plan; and prescriptions dispensed under British Columbia's health insurance programs. Unit costs were applied to radiotherapy and brachytherapy, producing per-patient costs. RESULTS: The mean cost per case of treating cervical cancer in British Columbia was $19,153 (standard error: $3,484). Inpatient hospitalizations, at 35%, represented the largest proportion of the total cost (95% confidence interval: 32.9% to 36.9%). Costs were compared for subgroups of the total cohort. CONCLUSIONS: As health care systems change the way they manage, screen for, and prevent cervical cancer, cost-effectiveness evaluations of the overall approach will require up-to-date data for resource utilization and costs. We provide information suitable for such a purpose and also identify factors that influence costs.

Using the Cancer Risk Management Model to evaluate the health and economic impacts of cytology compared with human papillomavirus DNA testing for primary cervical cancer screening in Canada.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, discussion about changing from cytology to human papillomavirus (hpv) dna testing for primary screening in cervical cancer is ongoing. However, the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care has not yet made a recommendation, concluding that the evidence is insufficient. METHODS: We used the cervical cancer and hpv transmission models of the Cancer Risk Management Model to study the health and economic outcomes of primary cytology compared with hpv dna testing in 14 screening scenarios with varying screening modalities and intervals. Projected cervical cancer cases, deaths, colposcopies, screens, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness were evaluated. We performed sensitivity analyses for hpv dna test costs. RESULTS: Compared with triennial cytology from age 25, 5-yearly hpv dna screening alone from age 30 resulted in equivalent incident cases and deaths, but 55% (82,000) fewer colposcopies and 43% (1,195,000) fewer screens. At hpv dna screening intervals of 3 years, whether alone or in an age-based sequence with cytology, screening costs are greater, but at intervals of more than 5 years, they are lower. Scenarios on the cost-effectiveness frontier were hpv dna testing alone every 10, 7.5, 5, or 3 years, and triennial cytology starting at age 21 or 25 when combined with hpv dna testing every 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Changing from cytology to hpv dna testing as the primary screening test for cervical cancer would be an acceptable strategy in Canada with respect to incidence, mortality, screening and diagnostic test volumes.

Cancer incidence among HIV-positive women in British Columbia, Canada: Heightened risk of virus-related malignancies.

OBJECTIVES: We used population-based data to identify incident cancer cases and correlates of cancer among women living with HIV/AIDS in British Columbia (BC), Canada between 1994 and 2008. METHODS: Data were obtained from a retrospective population-based cohort created from linkage of two province-wide databases: (1) the database of the BC Cancer Agency, a province-wide population-based cancer registry, and (2) a database managed by the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, which contains data on all persons treated with antiretroviral therapy in BC. This analysis included women (≥ 19 years old) living with HIV in BC, Canada. Incident cancer diagnoses that occurred after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation were included. We obtained a general population comparison of cancer incidence among women from the BC Cancer Agency. Bivariate analysis (Pearson χ(2) , Fisher's exact or Wilcoxon rank-sum test) compared women with and without incident cancer across relevant clinical and sociodemographic variables. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for selected cancers compared with the general population sample. RESULTS: We identified 2211 women with 12 529 person-years (PY) of follow-up who were at risk of developing cancer after HAART initiation. A total of 77 incident cancers (615/100 000 PY) were identified between 1994 and 2008. HIV-positive women with cancer, in comparison to the general population sample, were more likely to be diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer, Hodgkin's lymphoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma and less likely to be diagnosed with cancers of the digestive system. CONCLUSIONS: This study observed elevated rates of cancer among HIV-positive women compared to a general population sample. HIV-positive women may have an increased risk for cancers of viral-related pathogenesis.

Using the Cancer Risk Management Model to evaluate colorectal cancer screening options for Canada.

BACKGROUND: Several screening methods for colorectal cancer (crc) are available, and some have been shown by randomized trials to be effective. In the present study, we used a well-developed population health simulation model to compare the risks and benefits of a variety of screening scenarios. Tests considered were the fecal occult blood test (fobt), the fecal immunochemical test (fit), flexible sigmoidoscopy, and colonoscopy. Outcomes considered included years of life gained, crc cases and deaths prevented, and direct health system costs. METHODS: A natural history model of crc was implemented and calibrated to specified targets within the framework of the Cancer Risk Management Model (crmm) from the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer. The crmm-crc permits users to enter their own parameter values or to use program-specified base values. For each of 23 screening scenarios, we used the crmm-crc to run 10 million replicate simulations. RESULTS: Using base parameter values and some user-specified values in the crmm-crc, and comparing our screening scenarios with no screening, all screening scenarios were found to reduce the incidence of and mortality from crc. The fobt was the least effective test; it was not associated with lower net cost. Colonoscopy screening was the most effective test; it had net costs comparable to those for several other strategies considered, but required more than 3 times the colonoscopy resources needed by other approaches. After colonoscopy, strategies based on the fit were predicted to be the most effective. In sensitivity analyses performed for the fobt and fit screening strategies, fobt parameter values associated with high-sensitivity formulations were associated with a substantial increase in test effectiveness. The fit was more cost-effective at the 50 ng/mL threshold than at the 100 ng/mL threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The crmm-crc provides a sophisticated and flexible environment in which to evaluate crc control options. All screening scenarios considered in this study effectively reduced crc mortality, although sensitivity analyses demonstrated some uncertainty in the magnitude of the improvements. Where possible, local data should be used to reduce uncertainty in the parameters.

Breast cancer survival and prognosis by screening history.

BACKGROUND: Cancers not detected by breast screening are commonly assumed to have poorer prognosis. METHODS: We examined the survival experience of all women aged 50-74 years diagnosed with a first breast cancer between 1998 and 2006 in British Columbia, Canada and determined their screening experience. Disease-specific survival rates were calculated and, for cases diagnosed in 2002, prognostic factors (size, nodal involvement, grade ER status and stage) were examined by time since screening. RESULTS: Breast cancers diagnosed at screening had the best survival (P<0.001). Cancers detected within 12 months of a negative screen had similar survival rates (P=0.98) to those diagnosed within 12-23 and 24-47 months, with other non-screen-detected cancers having poorer survival (P<0.001). The prognostic profile of cancers diagnosed in 2002 followed a similar pattern. INTERPRETATION: There was no evidence that cancers diagnosed within 12 months had poorer prognosis than those diagnosed up to 48 months following screening.

Population-based evaluation of type-specific HPV prevalence among women in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: British Columbia (BC) introduced a school-based HPV vaccine program in September 2008. As part of the HPV vaccine program evaluation, we determined the type-specific HPV prevalence in a population-based sample of women presenting for routine cervical cancer screening in the province. METHODS: From June 2010 to February 2011, a total of 1100 physicians from all health regions in BC were invited to return ten sequential cytobrushes used during routine office-based Pap screening to the Provincial Health Services Authority Laboratories for HPV type-specific testing. Client age was the only identifier provided. Specimens were screened by the Digene Hybrid Capture(®) 2 High-Risk (hr) HPV DNA Test (HC2). HC2 positive specimens were then genotyped using the Roche cobas(®) 4800 HPV Test, the Roche Linear Array (LA) HPV Genotyping Test and the Digene(®) HPV Genotyping LQ Test. RESULTS: Overall, 12.2% of the 4330 specimens with valid HC2 results were hrHPV positive. Age range was 15-69 (median 39.0). By age group, the proportion HC2 hrHPV positive was: 15-19, 25.7%; 20-24, 33.2%; 25-29, 21.9%; 30-34, 12.6%; 35-39, 9.5%; 40-44, 8.4%; ≥45, 3.4%. Overall hrHPV prevalence was 10.1% by Roche cobas(®) 4800, 10.5% by Roche LA and 10.3% by Digene LQ. For HPV 16/18, rates by age group by Roche LA were: 15-19, 5.1%/2.8%; 20-24, 9.5%/3.9%; 25-29, 6.2%/1.0%; 30-34, 2.4%/1.7%; 35-39, 1.2%/1.0%; 40-44, 1.6%/0.2%; ≥45, 0.3%/0.2%. Similar HPV 16/18 rates were obtained with the Digene LQ and Roche cobas(®) 4800 methods. Agreement between the three genotyping methods for HPV 16 and 18 was high. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable to other evaluations, hrHPV positivity was highest among younger women and HPV 16 was the most frequent genotype detected. These baseline estimates will be useful for monitoring the effectiveness of the HPV vaccine in BC. Type-specific analyses repeated at regular intervals over time may determine whether the use of HPV vaccine results in hrHPV genotype replacement in the province.

Primary cervical cancer screening with HPV testing compared with liquid-based cytology: results of round 1 of a randomised controlled trial -- the HPV FOCAL Study.

BACKGROUND: Round 1 data of human papillomavirus (HPV) FOCAL, a three-arm, randomised trial, which aims to establish the efficacy of HPV DNA testing as a primary screen for cervical cancer, are presented. METHODS: The three arms are: Control arm - liquid based cytology with atypical squamous cells of unknown significance (ASC-US) triage with hrHPV testing; Intervention Arm - hrHPV at entry with liquid-based cytology (LBC) triage of hrHPV positives, with exit screen at 4 years; Safety check arm - hrHPV at entry with LBC triage of hrHPV positives with exit screen at 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 6154 women were randomised to the control arm and 12 494 to the HPV arms (intervention and safety check). In the HPV arm, the baseline cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2+ and CIN3+ rate was 9.2/1000 (95%CI; 7.4, 10.9) and 4.8/1000 (95%CI; 3.6, 6.1), which increased to 16.1/1000 (95%CI 13.2, 18.9) for CIN2+ and to 8.0/1000 (95%CI; 5.9, 10.0) for CIN3+ after subsequent screening of HPV-DNA-positive/cytology-negative women. Detection rate in the control arm remained unchanged after subsequent screening of ASC-US-positive/hrHPV DNA-negative women at 11.0/1000 for CIN2+ and 5.0/1000 for CIN3+. CONCLUSION: After subsequent screening of women who were either hrHPV positive/cytology negative or ASC-US positive/HPV negative, women randomised to the HPV arms had increased CIN2+ detection compared with women randomised to the cytology arm.

Comparison of 1- and 2-year screening intervals for women undergoing screening mammography.

We compared the long-term impact of 1- and 2-year screening mammography intervals using prognostic, screening, and outcome information for women aged 50-74 years obtained from the Screening Mammography Program of British Columbia in two time periods, prior to 1997 (policy of annual mammography) and after 1997 (biennial mammography). Survival was estimated for both periods using a prognostic model and the expected rate of interval and screen-detected cancers. The likelihood of a screen-detected cancer with annual screening was 2.32 per thousand screens and with biennial screening was 3.32 per thousand screens. The prognostic profile of screen-detected cancers was better than that of interval cancers. Among both screen-detected and interval cancers, the prognostic profiles with annual and biennial screening were similar. The estimated breast cancer-specific survival rates for women undergoing annual and biennial screening mammography were 95.2 and 94.6% at 5 years, and 90.4 and 89.2% at 10 years, respectively. Annual compared to biennial mammography was associated with a 1.2% increase in the estimated 10-year breast cancer-specific survival for women aged 50-74 years, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer after screening programme attendance.

Immunotherapy for advanced renal cell cancer.

BACKGROUND: The course of advanced renal cell carcinoma is extremely variable, ranging from spontaneous remission to disease progression refractory to chemotherapy. Immunotherapy has held promise of improved outcomes based on uncontrolled studies and randomized controlled trials generally limited by small size and low power. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate immunotherapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma by comparing: (1) high dose interleukin-2 to other options and (2) interferon-alfa to other options. The primary outcome of interest was overall survival at one year, with remission as the main secondary outcome of interest. SEARCH STRATEGY: A systematic search of the CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE databases was conducted for the period 1966 through end of December 2003. Handsearches were made of the proceedings of the periodic meetings of the American Urologic Association, the American Society of Clinical Oncology, ECCO - the European Cancer Conference, and the European Society of Medical Oncology for the period 1995 to June 2004. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials that selected (or stratified) patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma, utilized an immunotherapeutic agent in at least one study arm, and reported remission or survival by allocation. Fifty-three identified studies involving 6117 patients were eligible and all but one reported remission; 32 of these studies reported the one-year survival outcome. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently abstracted each article by following a prospectively designed protocol. Dichotomous outcomes for treatment remission (partial plus complete) and for deaths at one year were used for the main comparisons. Survival hazard ratios were also used for studies of interferon-alfa versus controls, and for two randomized studies of the value of initial nephrectomy prior to interferon-alfa in fit patients with metastases detected at the time of diagnosis. MAIN RESULTS: Combined data for a variety of immunotherapies gave an overall chance of partial or complete remission of only 12.9% (99 study arms), compared to 2.5% in 10 non-immunotherapy control arms, and 4.3% in two placebo arms. Twenty-eight percent of these remissions were designated as complete (data from 45 studies). Median survival averaged 13.3 months (range by arm, 6 to 27+ months). The difference in remission rate between arms was poorly correlated with the difference in median survival so that remission rate is not a good surrogate or intermediate outcome for survival for advanced renal cancer. We were unable to identify any published randomized study of high-dose interleukin-2 versus a non-immunotherapy control, or of high-dose interleukin-2 versus interferon-alfa reporting survival. It has been established that reduced dose interleukin-2 given by intravenous bolus or by subcutaneous injection provides equivalent survival to high dose interleukin-2 with less toxicity. Results from four studies (644 patients) indicate that interferon-alfa is superior to controls (OR for death at one year = 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.77). Using the method of Parmar 1998, the pooled overall hazard ratio for death was 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.88). The weighted average median improvement in survival was 3.8 months. T he optimal dose and duration of interferon-alfa remains to be elucidated. The addition of a variety of enhancers, including lower dose intravenous or subcutaneous interleukin-2, has failed to improve survival compared to interferon-alfa alone. Two recent randomized studies have examined the role of initial nephrectomy prior to interferon-alfa therapy in highly selected fit patients with metastases at diagnosis and minimal symptoms: despite minimal improvement in the chance of remission, both studies of up-front nephrectomy improved median survival by 4.8 months over interferon-alfa alone. Recent studies have been examining anti-angiogenesis agents. A landmark study of bevacizumab, an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody, was associated with significant prolongation of the time to progression of disease when given at high dose compared to low-dose or placebo therapy though frequency of remissions or survival were not improved. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: interferon-alfa provides a modest survival benefit compared to other commonly used treatments and should be considered for the control arm of future studies of systemic agents. In fit patients with metastases at diagnosis and minimal symptoms, nephrectomy followed by interferon-alfa gives the best survival strategy for fully validated therapies. The need for more effective specific therapy for this condition is apparent.

PSA doubling time post radiation: the effect of neoadjuvant androgen ablation.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether men who relapse after neoadjuvant androgen ablation (NAA) and high-dose radiation therapy (RT) have faster PSA doubling times(PSAdt) than those who are treated with RT alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From a prospective database of 1880 patients treated with RT for localized prostate cancer, patients were selected for further study if they had a rising PSA profile >1 ng/ml, and were treated with either no NAA, or prolonged NAA (defined as 3-12 months NAA) with a minimum 5 years follow-up. ThePSAdt was calculated from the exponential line of best fit from the first post-nadir value >1 ng/ml to the last PSA prior to secondary intervention. Those patients with a rising PSA profile at 5 years of follow-up were further examined with linear regression to determine factors of possible independent adverse effect. RESULTS: There were 251 patients eligible with rising PSA profiles. Patients treated with NAA had higher pre-treatment Gleason scores (p

Evaluation of immunohistochemical markers in non-small cell lung cancer by unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis: a tissue microarray study of 284 cases and 18 markers.

This study has investigated a panel of immunomarkers in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis was used to investigate the possibility of identifying different subgroups in NSCLC based on their molecular expression profile rather than morphological features. A tissue microarray consisting of 284 cases of NSCLC was constructed. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the presence of 18 biomarkers including synaptophysin, chromogranin, bombesin, NSE, GFI1, ASH-1, p53, p63, p21, p27, E2F-1, cyclin D1, Bcl-2, TTF-1, CEA, HER2/neu, cytokeratin 5/6, and pancytokeratin. Univariate analysis of all 18 markers for prognostic significance was performed. Immunohistochemical scoring data for NSCLC were analysed by unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted for the different cluster groups of lung tumours identified by this method. Analysis of the three different World Health Organization (WHO) subtypes (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma) of NSCLC individually showed that different markers were significant in different subtypes. For example, p53 and p63 were significant for squamous cell carcinoma (p = 0.007 and p = 0.03, respectively), whereas cyclin D1 and HER2/neu were significant prognostic markers for adenocarcinoma (p = 0.025 and p = 0.015, respectively). These markers were not significant prognostic predictors for NSCLC as a group. Hierarchical clustering analysis of NSCLC produced four separate cluster groups, although the vast majority of cases were found in two cluster groups, one dominated by squamous cell carcinoma and the other by adenocarcinoma. The clinical outcomes of cases from the four cluster groups were not significantly different. Prognostic indicators vary between different morphological subtypes of NSCLC. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis, based on an extended immunoprofile, identifies two main cluster groups corresponding to adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma; cases of large cell carcinomas are assigned to one of these two groups based on their molecular phenotype.

The effect of heterogeneity on optimal regimens in cancer chemotherapy.

Optimal drug regimens for cancer chemotherapy are determined when knowledge is only available on the behaviour of the tumour and the drugs used, over a population of patients. The case of two drugs is investigated where they are equivalent on average. Our calculations indicate that the optimal regimen has both drugs given initially but then sequences the two drugs. Our calculations also indicate that as tumour heterogeneity increases, the benefit to be gained from the optimal regimen can decrease in comparison to reasonable regimens. This has the effect of complicating the calculation of optimal regimens in a clinical setting, and may explain why results in experimental oncology fail to carry over to clinical oncology.

Risk of invasive cervical cancer after three consecutive negative Pap smears.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the factors that influence risk of cervical cancer after three consecutive negative Pap smears. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using data from the British Columbia Cervical Cancer Screening Program and British Columbia Cancer Registry. Analysis was based on a one percent sample of women aged 20-69 years with Pap smears enriched with all invasive cervical cancer cases diagnosed between 1994-99. Screening intervals, after three negative screens, were created with the following variables: age at beginning of interval, interval length, previous cytologic abnormality and previous cervical procedure. The risk of cervical cancer by histologic type was calculated using survival analysis methods. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 10,509 women, who contributed 28,309 intervals, and 371 cervical cancer cases. The incidence rate of invasive squamous cervical cancer increased with time since last screen up to six years. Women with a history of dysplasia remained at elevated risk for squamous cancer, hazard ratio=2.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.9, 3.4) but age or previous procedure were not related to risk. No relationship between time since last screen and non-squamous cancer risk was found although history of a previous procedure was significant. The marginal effectiveness of Pap smears declined with increasing frequency of use. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed the preventive effect of Pap smear screening and its dependency on frequency of use. Women with a history of dysplasia, prior to three consecutive negatives, were at increased risk of developing invasive squamous cervical cancer compared with women with no such history.

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer--collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58,515 women with breast cancer and 95,067 women without the disease.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58,515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95,067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19-1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35-44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33-1.61, P<0.00001) for >/=45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98-1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92-1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.

Improving the time to diagnosis after an abnormal screening mammogram.

INTRODUCTION: Five community-specific interventions to reduce the time to diagnosis after an abnormal breast screen have been evaluated. METHODS: Subjects with abnormal screening mammograms in 1998 were assessed through five community pilot projects (N = 1137) and a control random sample assessed elsewhere in BC (N = 1053). The number, types, dates and physician costs of breast-related interventions after an abnormal screen were compared between pilots and control. RESULTS: The median time to diagnosis for women without a biopsy was reduced from 23 days to 7 days (p = 0.001) in the pilot with facilitated referral to diagnosis. The median time to diagnosis for women with a biopsy was reduced from 57 days to 22-43 days in the pilots. Median physician costs per subject were lower (p = 0.02) in pilots that more frequently used core biopsy to obtain a diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Process changes can improve the time to diagnosis after an abnormal breast screen, with similar or lower physician costs per subject. Facilitating the referral process had the greatest impact.

Optimal control for a stochastic model of cancer chemotherapy.

Chemotherapy is useful in a number of cancers to reduce or eliminate residual disease. When used in this way the objective is to maximise the likelihood that the cancer will be eliminated. In this article, we extend a stochastic model of chemotherapy for cancer to incorporate its concomitant effect on the normal system and derive overall measures of outcome. The model includes the development of drug resistance and is sufficiently flexible to include a variety of tumour and normal system growth functions. The model is then applied to situations previously examined in the literature and it is shown that early intensification is a common feature of successful regimens in situations where drug resistance is likely. The model is also applied to data collected from clinical trials analysing the effect of adriamycin, and cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and 5-flourouracil (CMF) therapy in the treatment of operable breast cancer. The model is able to mimic the data and provides a description of the optimal regimen.

Immunotherapy for advanced renal cell cancer.

BACKGROUND: The course of advanced renal cell carcinoma is extremely variable, ranging from spontaneous remission to disease progression refractory to chemotherapy. Immunotherapy has held promise of improved outcomes based on uncontrolled studies and randomized controlled trials generally limited by small size and low power. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate immunotherapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma by comparing: (1) high dose interleukin-2 to other options and (2) interferon-alpha to other options. SEARCH STRATEGY: A search of MEDLINE, Cancerlit, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases from 1966 through the end of 1999. Handsearches were made of the proceedings of the annual meetings of the American Urologic Association, ASCO, and biennial European ECCO meetings, and the references of identified studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials that selected (or stratified) patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma, utilized an immunotherapeutic agent in at least one study arm, and reported response or survival by allocation. Forty-two studies involving 4216 patients were eligible and reported response and 26 of these reported survival outcome (3089 patients). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two independent reviewers abstracted each article by following a prospectively designed protocol. Dichotomous outcomes for treatment response (partial plus complete) and for deaths at one year were used for the main comparisons. Survival hazard ratios were also used for studies of interferon-alpha versus controls. MAIN RESULTS: The average response rate was 10.2 % (range by arm, 0 - 39%) and complete response rate was 3.2% (123/3852; n = 38 studies). Median survival averaged 11.6 months (range by arm, 6 - 28 months) and two-year survival averaged 22% (16 studies, range by arm 8 - 41%). There were no placebo-controlled studies and no randomized controlled studies examined survival for high dose interleukin-2 versus controls. Results from 6 studies (n = 963) indicate that interferon-alpha is superior to controls (OR for death at one year = 0.67, 95% CI 0.50 - 0.89. The pooled hazard ratio for survival of 0.78 (0.67 - 0.90) indicates that the treatment effect persisted until 24 months from randomization. The weighted average median improvement in survival was 2.6 months. Additional comparisons failed to prove a survival benefit from the addition of other agents to either modified schedules of interleukin-2 or to interferon-alpha. Dose-response studies examining survival for either agent could not be identified. The difference in response rate between arms was correlated with the difference in survival (P<0.001) suggesting that response rate difference may be a surrogate intermediate endpoint for survival. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: Interferon-alpha provides a modest survival benefit compared to other commonly used treatments and should be considered for the control arm of future studies of systemic agents. Interleukin-2 has not been validated in controlled randomized studies.

Broad-spectrum sunscreen use and the development of new nevi in white children: A randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: High nevus density is a risk factor for cutaneous malignant melanoma. Melanocytic nevi originate in childhood and are largely caused by solar exposure. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether use of broad-spectrum, high-sun protection factor (SPF) sunscreen attenuates development of nevi in white children. DESIGN: Randomized trial conducted June 1993 to May 1996. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 458 Vancouver, British Columbia, schoolchildren in grades 1 and 4 were randomized in 1993. After exclusion of nonwhite children and those lost to follow-up or with missing data, 309 children remained for analysis. Each child's nevi were enumerated at the start and end of the study in 1996. INTERVENTION: Parents of children randomly assigned to the treatment group (n=222) received a supply of SPF 30 broad-spectrum sunscreen with directions to apply it to exposed sites when the child was expected to be in the sun for 30 minutes or more. Children randomly assigned to the control group (n=236) received no sunscreen and were given no advice about sunscreen use. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Number of new nevi acquired during the 3 years of the study, compared between treatment and control groups. RESULTS: Children in the sunscreen group developed fewer nevi than did children in the control group (median counts, 24 vs 28; P=.048). A significant interaction was detected between freckling and study group, indicating that sunscreen use was much more important for children with freckles than for children without. Modeling of the data suggests that freckled children assigned to a broad-spectrum sunscreen intervention would develop 30% to 40% fewer new nevi than freckled children assigned to the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that broad-spectrum sunscreens may attenuate the number of nevi in white children, especially if they have freckles. JAMA. 2000.